A prospective record of how one fixed momentum model behaves after fees, stale quotes, timed exits, settlements, gains, and losses.
Prospective simulation
Paper Portfolio
Strategy version 2026-07-29.global-band-trigger.v1
The same 15-minute band rule on the zero-fee Global venue, where no taker fee stands between the observation and the result.
No real money is traded
Paper cash$900.54
+
Open liquidation value$100.25
=
Simulated value$1,000.79
Initial paper balance
$1,000.00
Total paper gain/loss
+$0.79 (+0.08%)
Paper cash
$900.54
Open positions
20
Completed positions
3
Source evidence
Last evaluated
Account record
Paper value history
3 recorded evaluations
Point-in-time paper cash, liquidation value, and simulated value
Evaluated
Paper cash
Open liquidation value
Simulated value
Change from initial
$900.54
$100.25
$1,000.79
+$0.79
$900.08
$98.92
$999.00
−$1.00
$1,000.00
$0.00
$1,000.00
$0.00
Each row was recorded after a scheduled Pulse run. Open positions are valued at the available bid; stale marks remain labeled in the position ledger.
Current ledger
Open paper positions
No paper position
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?
Paper loss−$0.45
The model holds No at 94.4¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
94.4¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$4.99
Liquidation value
$4.54
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.00
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Fixed method
How the experiment works
This section describes the active strategy version, 2026-07-21.momentum-paper.v4. Winding-down versions keep the exact rules recorded when they were active.
Candidate set. Only the published Largest Verified Moves section is considered.
Paper sizing. Evidence Score maps observable inputs to a $1–$25 maximum paper allocation.
Lifecycle. Entries use the live ask observed at evaluation, recorded next to the published snapshot quote. Marks and timed exits use the bid. Official settlement takes priority.
Holding period. A position leaves at the first evaluation within two hours of its seven-day deadline, or at official settlement, whichever happens first.
Exact Evidence Score formula
The five components below are rounded to whole points, then added together and capped at 100.
Evidence Score component rules
Component
Points
Rule
Persistence
0–35
From up to seven daily side midpoints: 0 with no transition; otherwise 35 × upward transitions ÷ observed transitions × min(observed transitions ÷ 4, 1)
Quote quality
0–25
25 × (10¢ − spread) ÷ 10¢, clamped from 0 to 25
Movement magnitude
0–20
20 × absolute movement ÷ 10 percentage points, clamped from 0 to 20
Market activity
2–10
2 + 8 × the midrank of source-backed activity among all other valid candidates (lower count plus half the equal count, ÷ other candidates). A single valid candidate uses 37.5%, producing 5 points.
Source freshness
1–10
10 at ≤2h; 7 at ≤6h; 4 at ≤12h; 1 at ≤24h; older observations are skipped
Fees and quantity: The unrounded fee in dollars is 0.05 × contracts × price × (1 − price), then rounded to the nearest cent with half-even rounding. Quantity is the largest exact source minimum-trade increment whose ask notional plus rounded fee stays within its tier.
Ties and order: Candidates sort by total score, then published movement rank, then stable market ID. One contract per event may remain open, and a market can re-qualify only after its previous position completes.
Fresh marks and seven-day timed exits use the position-side bid and its fee. A quote must be observed inside the exit window to exit. Official settlement takes priority and has no simulated fee. If a market reports no quote or settlement for 72 hours past its deadline, the position is written off at its last trusted valuation and labeled as such.
Position age
12h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
Yes paper position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 30?
Paper gain+$0.20
The model holds Yes at 95.7¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
95.7¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$5.00
Liquidation value
$5.20
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.00
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
12h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
No paper position
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?
Paper gain+$0.13
The model holds No at 95¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
95¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$5.00
Liquidation value
$5.13
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.00
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
12h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
Yes paper position
Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?
Paper loss−$0.08
The model holds Yes at 97.1¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
97.1¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$4.99
Liquidation value
$4.91
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.00
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
12h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
No paper position
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 240m and 260m?
Paper gain+$0.05
The model holds No at 97¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
97¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$5.00
Liquidation value
$5.05
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.00
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
12h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
No paper position
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?
Paper gain+$0.14
The model holds No at 95¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
95¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$5.00
Liquidation value
$5.14
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.00
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
12h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
No paper position
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
Paper gain+$0.10
The model holds No at 96.5¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
96.5¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$5.00
Liquidation value
$5.10
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.00
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
12h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
No paper position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in July?
Paper gain+$0.02
The model holds No at 97.9¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
97.9¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$4.99
Liquidation value
$5.01
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.00
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
12h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
No paper position
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in July?
Paper gain+$0.04
The model holds No at 97.8¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
97.8¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$5.00
Liquidation value
$5.04
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.00
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
12h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
No paper position
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 July 27-August 2?
Paper gain+$0.03
The model holds No at 95.6¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
95.6¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$5.00
Liquidation value
$5.03
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.00
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
12h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
No paper position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 30?
Paper gain$0.00
The model holds No at 97.7¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
97.7¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$4.99
Liquidation value
$4.99
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.00
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
12h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
Yes paper position
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 30?
Paper gain+$0.15
The model holds Yes at 95.9¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
95.9¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$5.00
Liquidation value
$5.15
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.00
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
12h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
No paper position
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?
Paper gain+$0.03
The model holds No at 96.9¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
96.9¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$4.99
Liquidation value
$5.02
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.00
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
12h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
Yes paper position
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on August 1?
Paper gain+$0.10
The model holds Yes at 97.2¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
97.2¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$5.00
Liquidation value
$5.10
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.00
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
12h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
No paper position
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
Paper gain+$0.05
The model holds No at 95¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
95¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$5.00
Liquidation value
$5.05
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.00
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
12h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
No paper position
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by July 31?
Paper loss−$0.02
The model holds No at 94.9¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
94.9¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$4.99
Liquidation value
$4.97
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.00
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
12h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
No paper position
Will Perry Johnson win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?
Paper loss−$0.11
The model holds No at 96.9¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
96.9¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$4.99
Liquidation value
$4.88
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.00
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
12h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
No paper position
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?
Paper loss−$0.01
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
98¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$5.00
Liquidation value
$4.99
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.00
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
0h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
No paper position
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 July 27-August 2?
Paper loss−$0.04
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
98¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$5.00
Liquidation value
$4.96
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.00
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
0h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
No paper position
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?
Paper gain$0.00
The model holds No at 97.9¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
97.9¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$4.99
Liquidation value
$4.99
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.00
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
0h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
Closed ledger
Completed paper positions
Estral Esports paper position
LoL: RED Academy vs Estral Esports (BO1) - Circuito Desafiante Regular Season
Paper gain+$0.10
Point-in-time markSettled
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
98¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$5.00
Final proceeds
$5.10
Exit fee
$0.00
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
12h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
No paper position
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on July 29?
Paper gain+$0.21
Point-in-time markSettled
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
96¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$4.99
Final proceeds
$5.20
Exit fee
$0.00
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
12h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
No paper position
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?
Paper gain+$0.15
Point-in-time markSettled
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
97¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$5.00
Final proceeds
$5.15
Exit fee
$0.00
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
12h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
Recorded omissions
Recent skipped observations
Recent candidates that did not create a paper position
Market
Evaluated
Reason
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?
The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?
The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Will William Lawrence be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?
The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in July?
The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?
The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?
This market already had a recorded paper entry
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?
This market already had a recorded paper entry
Will Trump and Netanyahu not shake hands by July 31, 2026?
The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?
This market already had a recorded paper entry
Atlétic Club d'Escaldes vs. FC Vaduz: Team to Advance
The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
LoL: PCIFIC vs BoostGate Esports (BO3) - TCL Play-Ins
The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 31?
The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on August 1?
The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
LoL: HMBLE vs TITANS (BO1) - LIT Regular Season
The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 40 million views on week 1?
The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs FALKE Esports (BO3) - LES Regular Season
The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?
The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
This market already had a recorded paper entry
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 July 27-August 2?
This market already had a recorded paper entry
Will FK Panevėžys win on 2026-07-30?
The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs Once Upon A Team (BO3) - Road Of Legends Regular Season
The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Will Amazon.com (AMZN) beat quarterly earnings?
The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Will Trump and Netanyahu not shake hands by July 31, 2026?
The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?
The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
Strategy was not active for this edition
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?
Strategy was not active for this edition
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in July?
Strategy was not active for this edition
Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers
Strategy was not active for this edition
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on July 29?
Strategy was not active for this edition
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Honvéd (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #6 Group Stage
Strategy was not active for this edition
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?
Strategy was not active for this edition
Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?
Strategy was not active for this edition
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 30?
Strategy was not active for this edition
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in July?
Strategy was not active for this edition
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Strategy was not active for this edition
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?
Strategy was not active for this edition
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by July 31?
Strategy was not active for this edition
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 29?
Strategy was not active for this edition
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?
Strategy was not active for this edition
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in July?
Strategy was not active for this edition
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
Strategy was not active for this edition
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?
Strategy was not active for this edition
LoL: Solary vs Esprit Shōnen (BO1) - LFL Regular Season
Strategy was not active for this edition
Strategy lab
Parallel comparison ledgers
These strategies run beside the featured model over the same candidates, prices, and fees, each with its own independent $1,000 paper ledger. The random-entry control selects candidates by a reproducible coin flip, so any strategy's edge must show up as outperformance against it. Pre-registered evaluation: at 100 closed positions or 8 weeks after activation (whichever comes first), a strategy passes only if it beats the control over the same period and is positive after fees.
Strategy version 2026-07-21.momentum-paper.v4
Enters US markets from the published Largest Verified Moves list, sized $1–$25 by Evidence Score at the live ask. Positions close at official settlement, at the seven-day exit, or between pulses via the exit sentinel; a market can re-qualify after its position completes.
Simulated value
$898.19
Paper cash
$733.38
Realized paper gain/loss
−$62.68
Open positions
17
Completed positions
151
Last evaluated
No paper position
National League MVP
Paper loss−$3.91
The model holds No at 46.4¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$15.00
Entry ask
46.4¢
Entry fee
$0.39
Entry cost
$14.77
Liquidation value
$10.86
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.36
Observed movement
-10.6 pp
Opened
Position age
2d 4h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
Evidence Score80/100
Persistence
23/35
Quote quality
24/25
Movement magnitude
20/20
Market activity
3/10
Source freshness
10/10
No paper position
Bank of Israel Decision in September?
Paper loss−$0.66
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$15.00
Entry ask
98¢
Entry fee
$0.01
Entry cost
$14.99
Liquidation value
$14.33
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.04
Observed movement
-12.5 pp
Opened
Position age
1d 4h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
Evidence Score82/100
Persistence
29/35
Quote quality
20/25
Movement magnitude
20/20
Market activity
3/10
Source freshness
10/10
No paper position
Prime Minister of Israel After the Next Election
Paper loss−$0.18
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$15.00
Entry ask
98¢
Entry fee
$0.01
Entry cost
$14.99
Liquidation value
$14.81
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.02
Observed movement
-10 pp
Opened
Position age
3d 4h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
Evidence Score86/100
Persistence
29/35
Quote quality
23/25
Movement magnitude
20/20
Market activity
4/10
Source freshness
10/10
No paper position
MLB Postseason Teams
Paper loss−$2.48
The model holds No at 57¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$10.00
Entry ask
57¢
Entry fee
$0.21
Entry cost
$10.00
Liquidation value
$7.52
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.21
Observed movement
-10.5 pp
Opened
Position age
3d 4h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
Evidence Score76/100
Persistence
26/35
Quote quality
15/25
Movement magnitude
20/20
Market activity
5/10
Source freshness
10/10
No paper position
Who Will Be Announced Out of Trump Admin in 2026?
Paper loss−$2.05
The model holds No at 73¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$10.00
Entry ask
73¢
Entry fee
$0.13
Entry cost
$10.00
Liquidation value
$7.95
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.16
Observed movement
-17.5 pp
Opened
Position age
3d 0h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
Evidence Score73/100
Persistence
21/35
Quote quality
18/25
Movement magnitude
20/20
Market activity
4/10
Source freshness
10/10
No paper position
Which Company Has #1 AI Model end of 2026?
Paper loss−$0.17
The model holds No at 99¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$15.00
Entry ask
99¢
Entry fee
$0.01
Entry cost
$15.00
Liquidation value
$14.83
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.01
Observed movement
-9 pp
Opened
Position age
4h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
Evidence Score85/100
Persistence
29/35
Quote quality
23/25
Movement magnitude
18/20
Market activity
5/10
Source freshness
10/10
No paper position
NASCAR Cup Series Champion
Paper loss−$0.35
The model holds No at 87¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$10.00
Entry ask
87¢
Entry fee
$0.06
Entry cost
$9.63
Liquidation value
$9.28
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.07
Observed movement
-9.5 pp
Opened
Position age
4d 0h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
Evidence Score77/100
Persistence
23/35
Quote quality
23/25
Movement magnitude
19/20
Market activity
2/10
Source freshness
10/10
No paper position
National League Rookie of the Year
Paper loss−$3.27
The model holds No at 51.6¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$15.00
Entry ask
51.6¢
Entry fee
$0.35
Entry cost
$14.80
Liquidation value
$11.53
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.34
Observed movement
-8.6 pp
Opened
Position age
6d 0h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
Evidence Score89/100
Persistence
35/35
Quote quality
24/25
Movement magnitude
17/20
Market activity
3/10
Source freshness
10/10
Yes paper position
Kash Patel Announced Out as FBI Director?
Paper loss−$5.39
The model holds Yes at 53¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$10.00
Entry ask
53¢
Entry fee
$0.23
Entry cost
$10.00
Liquidation value
$4.61
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.18
Observed movement
+11 pp
Opened
Position age
5d 0h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
Evidence Score75/100
Persistence
18/35
Quote quality
23/25
Movement magnitude
20/20
Market activity
4/10
Source freshness
10/10
Yes paper position
NBA Eastern Conference Champion
Paper loss−$0.35
The model holds Yes at 24¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$10.00
Entry ask
24¢
Entry fee
$0.37
Entry cost
$10.00
Liquidation value
$9.65
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.38
Observed movement
+11.5 pp
Opened
Position age
5d 20h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
Evidence Score76/100
Persistence
18/35
Quote quality
20/25
Movement magnitude
20/20
Market activity
8/10
Source freshness
10/10
No paper position
Elon Musk Net Worth on July 31?
Paper gain+$0.24
The model holds No at 94¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$15.00
Entry ask
94¢
Entry fee
$0.04
Entry cost
$15.00
Liquidation value
$15.24
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.03
Observed movement
-13.5 pp
Opened
Position age
5d 20h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
Evidence Score88/100
Persistence
35/35
Quote quality
20/25
Movement magnitude
20/20
Market activity
3/10
Source freshness
10/10
Yes paper position
Michigan Senate Democratic Primary Winner
Paper loss−$8.23
The model holds Yes at 34¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$10.00
Entry ask
34¢
Entry fee
$0.31
Entry cost
$9.83
Liquidation value
$1.60
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.08
Observed movement
+11 pp
Opened
Position age
5d 16h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
Evidence Score78/100
Persistence
23/35
Quote quality
23/25
Movement magnitude
20/20
Market activity
2/10
Source freshness
10/10
No paper position
Bitcoin price at the end of 2026?
Paper loss−$0.25
The model holds No at 96¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$10.00
Entry ask
96¢
Entry fee
$0.02
Entry cost
$9.99
Liquidation value
$9.74
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.03
Observed movement
-11 pp
Opened
Position age
5d 0h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
Evidence Score74/100
Persistence
18/35
Quote quality
23/25
Movement magnitude
20/20
Market activity
3/10
Source freshness
10/10
Yes paper position
American League Cy Young Award
Paper loss−$2.09
The model holds Yes at 61.3¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$15.00
Entry ask
61.3¢
Entry fee
$0.28
Entry cost
$14.99
Liquidation value
$12.90
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.30
Observed movement
+20.4 pp
Opened
Position age
5d 4h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
Evidence Score81/100
Persistence
23/35
Quote quality
25/25
Movement magnitude
20/20
Market activity
3/10
Source freshness
10/10
Robert Valentin paper position
Dusko Todorovic vs. Robert Valentin
Paper loss−$0.54
The model holds Robert Valentin at 61¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$10.00
Entry ask
61¢
Entry fee
$0.19
Entry cost
$9.95
Liquidation value
$9.41
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.19
Observed movement
-10 pp
Opened
Position age
6d 0h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
Evidence Score79/100
Persistence
23/35
Quote quality
23/25
Movement magnitude
20/20
Market activity
3/10
Source freshness
10/10
Yes paper position
Pro Football Comeback Player of the Year
Paper loss−$9.43
The model holds Yes at 49¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$10.00
Entry ask
49¢
Entry fee
$0.25
Entry cost
$10.00
Liquidation value
$0.57
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.03
Observed movement
+42 pp
Opened
Position age
6d 0h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
Evidence Score75/100
Persistence
18/35
Quote quality
23/25
Movement magnitude
20/20
Market activity
4/10
Source freshness
10/10
No paper position
CPI YoY in July
Paper loss−$0.02
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$10.00
Entry ask
98¢
Entry fee
$0.01
Entry cost
$10.00
Liquidation value
$9.98
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.01
Observed movement
-8 pp
Opened
Position age
6d 16h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
Evidence Score74/100
Persistence
21/35
Quote quality
23/25
Movement magnitude
16/20
Market activity
4/10
Source freshness
10/10
Strategy version 2026-07-21.random-entry-control.v2
The scientific control: draws from the same candidates by a reproducible coin flip with fixed $5 sizing and the same lifecycle, so any momentum edge has to show up as outperformance against it.
Simulated value
$957.65
Paper cash
$881.52
Realized paper gain/loss
−$25.29
Open positions
19
Completed positions
124
Last evaluated
Yes paper position
NBA MVP
Paper loss−$1.08
The model holds Yes at 47¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
47¢
Entry fee
$0.13
Entry cost
$5.00
Liquidation value
$3.92
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.12
Observed movement
+12 pp
Opened
Position age
4h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
Evidence Score74/100
Persistence
18/35
Quote quality
23/25
Movement magnitude
20/20
Market activity
3/10
Source freshness
10/10
Yes paper position
Strategy version 2026-07-21.momentum-guarded.v2
Momentum v4's rules plus one guard: it skips any candidate whose live ask is above 85 cents, testing whether avoiding expensive entries changes the outcome.
Simulated value
$886.29
Paper cash
$747.35
Realized paper gain/loss
−$68.34
Open positions
17
Completed positions
155
Last evaluated
No paper position
Fed Rate Hike in 2026?
Paper gain+$0.90
The model holds No at 30¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$10.00
Entry ask
30¢
Entry fee
$0.34
Entry cost
$10.00
Liquidation value
$10.90
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.37
Observed movement
-8.5 pp
Opened
Position age
16h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
Evidence Score75/100
Persistence
18/35
Quote quality
23/25
Movement magnitude
17/20
Market activity
7/10
Source freshness
10/10
Yes paper position
NBA MVP
Global copy lab
Trader-copy comparison ledgers
These ledgers run on the Global Polymarket venue (its own fee model; spread is the only simulated cost) and copy tracked trader books: one follows the most profitable recent wallets, the other copies randomly selected active wallets with identical mechanics, so profitability-selection is the only difference. Wallets are never identified. Pre-registered evaluation: at 100 closed positions or 8 weeks after activation, the copy strategy passes only if it beats the random-copy control over the same period and is positive after costs.
Strategy version 2026-07-21.global-copy-top.v2
Copies newly appeared positions from the 20 most profitable recently active Global Polymarket wallets at $5 per copy, and exits when the copied trader exits, at official resolution, or after 30 days. Wallets are never identified.
Simulated value
$906.75
Paper cash
$843.77
Realized paper gain/loss
−$86.24
Open positions
14
Completed positions
84
Last evaluated
No paper position
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?
Paper loss−$0.04
The model holds No at 96.8¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
96.8¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$4.99
Liquidation value
$4.95
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.00
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
7d 20h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
No paper position
Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 National League MVP Award?
Paper gain+$3.00
The model holds No at 25¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
25¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$5.00
Liquidation value
$8.00
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.00
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
7d 20h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
Yes paper position
Will James Cook III finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most rushing touchdowns?
Paper loss−$1.36
The model holds Yes at 11¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
11¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$5.00
Liquidation value
$3.64
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.00
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
7d 4h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
Yes paper position
Will the season series between the Cardinals and Seahawks end in a tie during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?
Paper loss−$0.36
The model holds Yes at 28¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
28¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$5.00
Liquidation value
$4.64
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.00
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
7d 4h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
Yes paper position
Will Matthew Stafford finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most passing touchdowns?
Paper loss−$0.77
The model holds Yes at 13¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
13¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$5.00
Liquidation value
$4.23
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.00
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
7d 4h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
Yes paper position
Will the Bills win the season series against the Dolphins during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?
Paper gain+$0.38
The model holds Yes at 53¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
53¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$5.00
Liquidation value
$5.38
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.00
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
7d 0h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
Yes paper position
Will the season series between the Cardinals and Rams end in a tie during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?
Paper loss−$4.85
The model holds Yes at 34¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
34¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$5.00
Liquidation value
$0.15
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.00
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
7d 0h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
Yes paper position
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
Paper loss−$1.59
The model holds Yes at 44¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
44¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$5.00
Liquidation value
$3.41
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.00
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
6d 20h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
Yes paper position
Will Josh Jacobs finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most rushing touchdowns?
Paper loss−$0.91
The model holds Yes at 11¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
11¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$5.00
Liquidation value
$4.09
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.00
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
6d 20h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
No paper position
Will the Packers win the season series against the Lions during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?
Paper loss−$0.31
The model holds No at 80¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
80¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$5.00
Liquidation value
$4.69
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.00
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
6d 16h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
Texas Rangers paper position
Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Paper loss−$0.58
The model holds Texas Rangers at 43¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
43¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$5.00
Liquidation value
$4.42
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.00
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
4h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
Under paper position
New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5
Paper gain+$0.17
The model holds Under at 57¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
57¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$5.00
Liquidation value
$5.17
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.00
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
4h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
St. Louis Cardinals paper position
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Paper loss−$0.10
The model holds St. Louis Cardinals at 53¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
53¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$5.00
Liquidation value
$4.90
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.00
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
4h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
Under paper position
New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5
Paper gain+$0.31
The model holds Under at 48¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
48¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$5.00
Liquidation value
$5.31
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.00
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
4h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
Strategy version 2026-07-21.global-copy-random.v2
The copy lab's control: identical copy mechanics over a reproducible random draw of active Global wallets, so selecting traders by profitability is the only difference being tested.
Simulated value
$954.85
Paper cash
$915.02
Realized paper gain/loss
−$39.98
Open positions
9
Completed positions
90
Last evaluated
Yes paper position
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Paper loss−$2.00
The model holds Yes at 0.5¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
0.5¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$5.00
Liquidation value
$3.00
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.00
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
1d 4h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
Yes paper position
Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Paper loss−$1.00
The model holds Yes at 0.5¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Global favorites lab
Favorite-price comparison ledgers
These ledgers test the documented favorite–longshot bias on the Global Polymarket venue (its own fee model; spread is the only simulated cost). One buys the favorite side priced 93–98¢ in markets closing within seven days; the control buys a reproducibly random side of the identical market pool with identical mechanics, so favorite-side selection is the only difference. Pre-registered evaluation: at 100 closed positions or 8 weeks after activation, the favorites strategy passes only if it beats the random-side control over the same period and is positive after costs.
Strategy version 2026-07-25.global-favorites.v1
Tests the documented favorite–longshot bias: buys the favorite side priced 93–98¢ in Global markets closing within seven days, $5 per position, and holds to official resolution (30-day backstop).
Simulated value
$999.64
Paper cash
$897.65
Realized paper gain/loss
−$2.43
Open positions
20
Completed positions
17
Last evaluated
No paper position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
Paper gain+$0.27
The model holds No at 94¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
94¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$4.99
Liquidation value
$5.26
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.00
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
4d 20h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
No paper position
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in July?
Paper gain+$0.10
The model holds No at 97.9¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
97.9¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$4.99
Liquidation value
$5.09
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.00
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
4d 20h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
No paper position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?
Paper gain+$0.28
The model holds No at 94.3¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
94.3¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$5.00
Liquidation value
$5.28
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.00
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
4d 20h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
No paper position
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
Paper gain+$0.02
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
98¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$5.00
Liquidation value
$5.02
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.00
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
4d 20h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
No paper position
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
Paper gain+$0.06
The model holds No at 97¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
97¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$5.00
Liquidation value
$5.06
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.00
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
4d 20h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
No paper position
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?
Paper gain+$0.27
The model holds No at 94.5¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
94.5¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$5.00
Liquidation value
$5.27
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.00
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
4d 20h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
No paper position
Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?
Paper gain+$0.08
The model holds No at 97¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
97¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$5.00
Liquidation value
$5.08
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.00
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
4d 20h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
No paper position
Iran leadership change by July 31?
Paper gain+$0.09
The model holds No at 97.9¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
97.9¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$4.99
Liquidation value
$5.08
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.00
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
4d 20h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
No paper position
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?
Paper gain+$0.17
The model holds No at 96.3¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
96.3¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$5.00
Liquidation value
$5.17
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.00
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
4d 20h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
No paper position
Israel military action against Yemen by July 31?
Paper gain+$0.20
The model holds No at 94¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
94¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$4.99
Liquidation value
$5.19
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.00
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
4d 20h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
No paper position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July?
Paper gain+$0.09
The model holds No at 97.8¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
97.8¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$5.00
Liquidation value
$5.09
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.00
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
4d 20h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
No paper position
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?
Paper gain+$0.11
The model holds No at 97.4¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
97.4¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$5.00
Liquidation value
$5.11
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.00
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
3d 4h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
No paper position
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
Paper gain+$0.09
The model holds No at 97.5¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
97.5¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$4.99
Liquidation value
$5.08
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.00
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
3d 4h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
No paper position
Andrew Tate released from custody by July 31, 2026?
Paper gain+$0.11
The model holds No at 97.7¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
97.7¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$4.99
Liquidation value
$5.10
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.00
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
3d 4h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
No paper position
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 31?
Paper gain+$0.05
The model holds No at 97.9¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
97.9¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$4.99
Liquidation value
$5.04
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.00
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
2d 20h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
No paper position
Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
Paper gain+$0.02
The model holds No at 97.5¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
97.5¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$4.99
Liquidation value
$5.01
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.00
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
1d 20h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
No paper position
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in July?
Paper gain+$0.02
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
98¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$5.00
Liquidation value
$5.02
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.00
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
16h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
No paper position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?
Paper gain+$0.07
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
98¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$5.00
Liquidation value
$5.07
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.00
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
16h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
No paper position
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 July 27-August 2?
Paper loss−$0.04
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
98¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$5.00
Liquidation value
$4.96
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.00
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
4h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
No paper position
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
Paper gain+$0.01
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
98¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$5.00
Liquidation value
$5.01
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.00
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
4h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
Strategy version 2026-07-25.global-favorites-random.v1
The favorites lab's control: buys a reproducibly random side of the same eligible markets with identical mechanics, so favorite-side selection is the only difference being tested.
Simulated value
$944.58
Paper cash
$866.91
Realized paper gain/loss
−$33.18
Open positions
20
Completed positions
15
Last evaluated
No paper position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in July?
Paper gain+$0.33
The model holds No at 93¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
93¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$4.99
Liquidation value
$5.32
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.00
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
4d 20h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
No paper position
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
Paper gain+$0.18
The model holds No at 94¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Entry timing lab
Trigger-versus-schedule ledgers
Every other ledger here may only act at the four scheduled daily runs. These test whether that matters. Each venue runs one ledger that re-checks the market every 15 minutes and enters as soon as a side’s live ask sits between 93 and 98 cents, beside a twin following the identical rule, sizing, and exits at the scheduled cadence alone. Both hold to official settlement, so the only difference between them is how often they may look. Pre-registered evaluation: at 100 closed positions or 8 weeks after activation, a trigger ledger passes only if it beats its own twin over the same period and is positive after costs.
Strategy version 2026-07-29.us-band-trigger.v1
Re-checks a watchlist of US markets every 15 minutes and enters the moment a side's live ask sits between 93 and 98 cents, $5 per position, holding to official settlement.
Simulated value
$956.31
Paper cash
$900.30
Realized paper gain/loss
+$0.30
Open positions
20
Completed positions
3
Last evaluated
No paper position
Will the Liga Colombia match Independiente Medellin vs AD Cali scheduled for Aug 1, 2026 end in a draw?
Paper loss−$2.46
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
98¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$5.00
Liquidation value
$2.54
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.06
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
12h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
No paper position
Will CU Tecnica de Cajamarca win against Cusco FC in the Liga 1 match scheduled for Aug 1, 2026?
Paper loss−$2.41
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
98¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$5.00
Liquidation value
$2.59
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.06
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
12h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
No paper position
Will the NWSL match Houston Dash vs NJ/NY Gotham FC scheduled for Aug 1, 2026 end in a draw?
Paper loss−$2.36
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
98¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$5.00
Liquidation value
$2.64
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.06
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
12h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
No paper position
Will the Liga 1 match Club Alianza Lima vs Club Alianza Atletico scheduled for Aug 1, 2026 end in a draw?
Paper loss−$2.36
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
98¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$5.00
Liquidation value
$2.64
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.06
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
12h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
No paper position
Will the Liga Promerica match LD Alajuelense vs Escorpiones de Belen scheduled for Aug 1, 2026 end in a draw?
Paper loss−$2.41
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
98¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$5.00
Liquidation value
$2.59
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.06
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
12h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
+4.50 paper position
Will the Ugo Humbert cover -4.5 vs the Ben Shelton in Ugo Humbert vs. Ben Shelton?
Paper loss−$1.95
The model holds +4.50 at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
98¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$5.00
Liquidation value
$3.05
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.06
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
12h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
No paper position
Will the Liga Nacional match Comunicaciones FC vs Deportivo San Pedro scheduled for Aug 1, 2026 end in a draw?
Paper loss−$2.46
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
98¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$5.00
Liquidation value
$2.54
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.06
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
12h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
+1.50 paper position
Will the Tatiana Prozorova cover -1.5 vs the Peyton Stearns in Tatiana Prozorova vs. Peyton Stearns?
Paper loss−$2.71
The model holds +1.50 at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
98¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$5.00
Liquidation value
$2.29
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.06
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
12h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
No paper position
Will EC Juventude win against CA Mineiro in the Copa do Brasil match scheduled for Aug 1, 2026?
Paper loss−$2.41
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
98¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$5.00
Liquidation value
$2.59
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.06
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
12h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
-1.50 paper position
Will the Jessica Pegula cover -1.5 vs the Magdalena Frech in Jessica Pegula vs. Magdalena Frech?
Paper loss−$2.61
The model holds -1.50 at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
98¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$5.00
Liquidation value
$2.39
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.06
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
12h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
No paper position
Will the Liga Nacional match CD Guastatoya vs CD Malacateco scheduled for Aug 1, 2026 end in a draw?
Paper loss−$2.41
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
98¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$5.00
Liquidation value
$2.59
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.06
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
12h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
Over paper position
Will the total in Sloane Stephens vs. Darja Vidmanova be more than 17.5?
Paper loss−$2.61
The model holds Over at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
98¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$5.00
Liquidation value
$2.39
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.06
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
12h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
No paper position
Kalinskaya wins 2-1
Paper loss−$2.56
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
98¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$5.00
Liquidation value
$2.44
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.06
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
12h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
No paper position
Will the Liga Promerica match Puntarenas FC vs Sporting FC scheduled for Aug 1, 2026 end in a draw?
Paper loss−$2.41
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
98¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$5.00
Liquidation value
$2.59
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.06
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
12h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
+4.50 paper position
Will the Brandon Nakashima cover 4.5 vs the Jakub Mensik in Brandon Nakashima vs. Jakub Mensik?
Paper loss−$2.36
The model holds +4.50 at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
98¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$5.00
Liquidation value
$2.64
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.06
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
12h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
No paper position
Will the NWSL match Bay FC vs Seattle Reign FC scheduled for Aug 1, 2026 end in a draw?
Paper loss−$2.41
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
98¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$5.00
Liquidation value
$2.59
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.06
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
12h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
No paper position
Will the Primera Chile match CD Limache vs CD Nublense scheduled for Aug 1, 2026 end in a draw?
Paper loss−$2.41
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
98¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$5.00
Liquidation value
$2.59
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.06
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
12h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
No paper position
Will Jazz Chisholm Jr. record at least 2 home runs in NYY vs CWS?
Paper loss−$0.06
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
98¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$5.00
Liquidation value
$4.94
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.01
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
0h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
Under paper position
Will the total in Alex de Minaur vs. Cruz Hewitt be more than 24.5?
Paper loss−$2.51
The model holds Under at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
98¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$5.00
Liquidation value
$2.49
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.06
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
0h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
No paper position
Highest temperature in Los Angeles on July 30?
Paper loss−$0.11
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
98¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$5.00
Liquidation value
$4.89
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.01
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
0h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
Strategy version 2026-07-29.us-band-pulse.v1
The timing control: the identical US band rule, sizing, and exits, but evaluated only at the four scheduled daily runs — so the sole difference from its trigger twin is how often it may look.
Simulated value
$947.99
Paper cash
$895.40
Realized paper gain/loss
−$9.60
Open positions
19
Completed positions
6
Last evaluated
-1.50 paper position
Will the Jessica Pegula cover -1.5 vs the Magdalena Frech in Jessica Pegula vs. Magdalena Frech?
Paper loss−$1.74
The model holds -1.50 at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
98¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$5.00
Liquidation value
$3.26
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.06
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
16h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
No paper position
Kalinskaya wins 2-1
Paper loss−$1.69
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Strategy version 2026-07-29.global-band-pulse.v1
The timing control for the Global band trigger: identical rule and costs, evaluated only at the four scheduled daily runs.
Simulated value
$1,001.20
Paper cash
$900.41
Realized paper gain/loss
+$0.30
Open positions
20
Completed positions
2
Last evaluated
No paper position
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on July 30?
Paper gain+$0.10
The model holds No at 97.9¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
97.9¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$4.99
Liquidation value
$5.09
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.00
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
16h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
Yes paper position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 30?
Paper gain+$0.27
The model holds Yes at 94.7¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
Previous strategy versions
Winding-down paper ledgers
Earlier immutable strategy versions stop entering new positions but keep marking, exiting, and settling their remaining open positions until each ledger completes. Their records remain part of the prospective evidence.
Strategy version 2026-07-20.random-entry-control.v1
The previous random-entry control: reproducible coin-flip selection with fixed $5 sizing and pulse-only exits.
Simulated value
$982.78
Paper cash
$982.78
Realized paper gain/loss
−$17.22
Open positions
0
Completed positions
34
Last evaluated
No open positions in this ledger right now.
Strategy version 2026-07-20.momentum-paper.v3
The previous momentum version: live entry quotes, seven-day holds, and write-offs for unquotable markets, but positions close only at scheduled pulses rather than between them.
Simulated value
$967.12
Paper cash
$967.12
Realized paper gain/loss
−$32.88
Open positions
0
Completed positions
44
Last evaluated
No open positions in this ledger right now.
Strategy version 2026-07-20.momentum-guarded.v1
The previous price-guarded momentum: an 85-cent live-ask entry guard with pulse-only exits.
Simulated value
$979.37
Paper cash
$979.37
Realized paper gain/loss
−$20.63
Open positions
0
Completed positions
36
Last evaluated
No open positions in this ledger right now.
Strategy version 2026-07-19.momentum-paper.v2
The original momentum version: entries priced from the published snapshot quote, strict seven-day holds, and no re-entry into a market it ever held.
Simulated value
$976.88
Paper cash
$976.88
Realized paper gain/loss
−$23.12
Open positions
0
Completed positions
28
Last evaluated
No open positions in this ledger right now.
Strategy version 2026-07-20.global-copy-random.v1
The previous random-copy control: identical copy mechanics with pulse-only exits.
Simulated value
$1,003.07
Paper cash
$994.96
Realized paper gain/loss
+$4.95
Open positions
2
Completed positions
4
Last evaluated
Yes paper position
Will Brock Purdy win the 2026 NFL MVP?
Paper loss−$1.75
The model holds Yes at 4¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Point-in-time markOpen
Paper allocation
$5.00
Entry ask
4¢
Entry fee
$0.00
Entry cost
$5.00
Liquidation value
$3.25
Hypothetical exit fee
$0.00
Observed movement
+0 pp
Opened
Position age
8d 20h
Valuation observed
Scheduled exit
Yes paper position
Will Bad Bunny be the top artist for 2026?
Paper loss−$0.13
The model holds Yes at 76¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.