An auditable what-if ledger
A prospective record of how one fixed momentum model behaves after fees, stale quotes, timed exits, settlements, gains, and losses.
Prospective simulation
Strategy version 2026-07-21.global-copy-random.v2
The copy lab's control: identical copy mechanics over a reproducible random draw of active Global wallets, so selecting traders by profitability is the only difference being tested.
No real money is traded
Account record
91 recorded evaluations
| Evaluated | Paper cash | Open liquidation value | Simulated value | Change from initial |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $915.02 | $39.83 | $954.85 | −$45.15 | |
| $915.02 | $42.55 | $957.57 | −$42.43 | |
| $909.76 | $47.58 | $957.34 | −$42.66 | |
| $909.76 | $47.58 | $957.34 | −$42.66 | |
| $924.76 | $35.89 | $960.65 | −$39.35 | |
| $924.76 | $35.41 | $960.17 | −$39.83 | |
| $924.76 | $35.41 | $960.17 | −$39.83 | |
| $924.76 | $35.41 | $960.17 | −$39.83 | |
| $916.43 | $42.16 | $958.59 | −$41.41 | |
Fixed method
This section describes the active strategy version, 2026-07-21.momentum-paper.v4. Winding-down versions keep the exact rules recorded when they were active.
Candidate set. Only the published Largest Verified Moves section is considered.
Paper sizing. Evidence Score maps observable inputs to a $1–$25 maximum paper allocation.
Lifecycle. Entries use the live ask observed at evaluation, recorded next to the published snapshot quote. Marks and timed exits use the bid. Official settlement takes priority.
Holding period. A position leaves at the first evaluation within two hours of its seven-day deadline, or at official settlement, whichever happens first.
The five components below are rounded to whole points, then added together and capped at 100.
| Component | Points | Rule |
|---|---|---|
| Persistence | 0–35 | From up to seven daily side midpoints: 0 with no transition; otherwise 35 × upward transitions ÷ observed transitions × min(observed transitions ÷ 4, 1) |
| Quote quality | 0–25 | 25 × (10¢ − spread) ÷ 10¢, clamped from 0 to 25 |
| Movement magnitude | 0–20 | 20 × absolute movement ÷ 10 percentage points, clamped from 0 to 20 |
| Market activity | 2–10 | 2 + 8 × the midrank of source-backed activity among all other valid candidates (lower count plus half the equal count, ÷ other candidates). A single valid candidate uses 37.5%, producing 5 points. |
| Source freshness | 1–10 | 10 at ≤2h; 7 at ≤6h; 4 at ≤12h; 1 at ≤24h; older observations are skipped |
Paper allocation tiers: 0–39 = $1; 40–54 = $3; 55–69 = $5; 70–79 = $10; 80–89 = $15; 90–100 = $25.
Fees and quantity: The unrounded fee in dollars is 0.05 × contracts × price × (1 − price), then rounded to the nearest cent with half-even rounding. Quantity is the largest exact source minimum-trade increment whose ask notional plus rounded fee stays within its tier.
Ties and order: Candidates sort by total score, then published movement rank, then stable market ID. One contract per event may remain open, and a market can re-qualify only after its previous position completes.
Fresh marks and seven-day timed exits use the position-side bid and its fee. A quote must be observed inside the exit window to exit. Official settlement takes priority and has no simulated fee. If a market reports no quote or settlement for 72 hours past its deadline, the position is written off at its last trusted valuation and labeled as such.
| $916.43 |
| $39.90 |
| $956.33 |
| −$43.67 |
| $911.43 | $45.81 | $957.24 | −$42.76 |
| $916.43 | $42.60 | $959.03 | −$40.97 |
| $916.43 | $42.58 | $959.01 | −$40.99 |
| $911.33 | $52.42 | $963.75 | −$36.25 |
| $911.33 | $52.57 | $963.90 | −$36.10 |
| $893.00 | $72.77 | $965.77 | −$34.23 |
| $887.96 | $79.24 | $967.20 | −$32.80 |
| $947.96 | $35.95 | $983.91 | −$16.09 |
| $947.96 | $35.58 | $983.54 | −$16.46 |
| $947.96 | $36.58 | $984.54 | −$15.46 |
| $952.96 | $33.03 | $985.99 | −$14.01 |
| $952.96 | $33.11 | $986.07 | −$13.93 |
| $952.96 | $33.11 | $986.07 | −$13.93 |
| $952.96 | $33.11 | $986.07 | −$13.93 |
| $936.02 | $49.82 | $985.84 | −$14.16 |
| $936.02 | $49.87 | $985.89 | −$14.11 |
| $928.98 | $55.33 | $984.31 | −$15.69 |
| $928.98 | $55.54 | $984.52 | −$15.48 |
| $928.98 | $55.49 | $984.47 | −$15.53 |
| $928.98 | $57.32 | $986.30 | −$13.70 |
| $928.98 | $61.91 | $990.89 | −$9.11 |
| $928.98 | $71.62 | $1,000.60 | +$0.60 |
| $910.21 | $86.96 | $997.17 | −$2.83 |
| $905.21 | $95.21 | $1,000.42 | +$0.42 |
| $905.21 | $90.99 | $996.20 | −$3.80 |
| $970.20 | $32.23 | $1,002.43 | +$2.43 |
| $970.20 | $32.01 | $1,002.21 | +$2.21 |
| $970.20 | $31.68 | $1,001.88 | +$1.88 |
| $970.20 | $33.18 | $1,003.38 | +$3.38 |
| $959.57 | $47.60 | $1,007.17 | +$7.17 |
| $959.57 | $51.96 | $1,011.53 | +$11.53 |
| $959.57 | $57.20 | $1,016.77 | +$16.77 |
| $1,004.57 | $13.58 | $1,018.15 | +$18.15 |
| $998.55 | $19.59 | $1,018.14 | +$18.14 |
| $993.55 | $29.46 | $1,023.01 | +$23.01 |
| $1,007.74 | $18.75 | $1,026.49 | +$26.49 |
| $1,007.74 | $18.89 | $1,026.63 | +$26.63 |
| $1,007.74 | $18.89 | $1,026.63 | +$26.63 |
| $1,007.74 | $26.62 | $1,034.36 | +$34.36 |
| $995.84 | $36.48 | $1,032.32 | +$32.32 |
| $995.84 | $37.68 | $1,033.52 | +$33.52 |
| $1,025.84 | $8.38 | $1,034.22 | +$34.22 |
| $1,025.84 | $8.86 | $1,034.70 | +$34.70 |
| $994.59 | $45.15 | $1,039.74 | +$39.74 |
| $983.73 | $56.09 | $1,039.82 | +$39.82 |
| $975.80 | $38.89 | $1,014.69 | +$14.69 |
| $970.80 | $26.83 | $997.63 | −$2.37 |
| $938.96 | $82.91 | $1,021.87 | +$21.87 |
| $977.30 | $58.23 | $1,035.53 | +$35.53 |
| $971.98 | $51.01 | $1,022.99 | +$22.99 |
| $921.26 | $80.46 | $1,001.72 | +$1.72 |
| $986.26 | $24.63 | $1,010.89 | +$10.89 |
| $986.26 | $24.73 | $1,010.99 | +$10.99 |
| $986.26 | $24.39 | $1,010.65 | +$10.65 |
| $1,016.26 | $0.00 | $1,016.26 | +$16.26 |
| $1,016.26 | $0.00 | $1,016.26 | +$16.26 |
| $1,016.26 | $0.00 | $1,016.26 | +$16.26 |
| $1,016.26 | $0.00 | $1,016.26 | +$16.26 |
| $1,016.26 | $0.00 | $1,016.26 | +$16.26 |
| $1,016.26 | $2.00 | $1,018.26 | +$18.26 |
| $980.55 | $40.50 | $1,021.05 | +$21.05 |
| $980.55 | $43.23 | $1,023.78 | +$23.78 |
| $969.69 | $43.15 | $1,012.84 | +$12.84 |
| $964.69 | $29.04 | $993.73 | −$6.27 |
| $959.69 | $34.04 | $993.73 | −$6.27 |
| $994.69 | $0.00 | $994.69 | −$5.31 |
| $988.88 | $4.94 | $993.82 | −$6.18 |
| $993.88 | $0.00 | $993.88 | −$6.12 |
| $980.72 | $9.86 | $990.58 | −$9.42 |
| $990.72 | $0.00 | $990.72 | −$9.28 |
| $981.29 | $9.42 | $990.71 | −$9.29 |
| $974.05 | $16.65 | $990.70 | −$9.30 |
| $957.94 | $24.52 | $982.46 | −$17.54 |
| $982.94 | $0.00 | $982.94 | −$17.06 |
| $971.58 | $11.35 | $982.93 | −$17.07 |
| $971.58 | $9.67 | $981.25 | −$18.75 |
| $991.58 | $0.00 | $991.58 | −$8.42 |
| $985.01 | $14.55 | $999.56 | −$0.44 |
| $1,000.00 | $0.00 | $1,000.00 | $0.00 |
| $1,000.00 | $0.00 | $1,000.00 | $0.00 |
| $1,000.00 | $0.00 | $1,000.00 | $0.00 |
Each row was recorded after a scheduled Pulse run. Open positions are valued at the available bid; stale marks remain labeled in the position ledger.
Current ledger
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 0.5¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 0.5¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Harriet Dart paper position
The model holds Harriet Dart at 100¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 11¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 5.2¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 59¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 24¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 75¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 15¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Closed ledger
EDward Gaming paper position
Yes paper position
Atlanta Braves paper position
Yes paper position
Matei Varbanciu paper position
Glamorgan paper position
Petja Drame paper position
Ylenia Zocco paper position
163ON paper position
Lahore Qalandars paper position
RE.Arise paper position
Under paper position
ex-Young Ninjas paper position
VooDooSh Team paper position
Bayer Leverkusen paper position
Cincinnati Reds paper position
Ben Shelton paper position
Miami Marlins paper position
Yes paper position
Brandon Nakashima paper position
Arthur Fils paper position
Max Schoenhaus paper position
Harold Mayot paper position
Yelyzaveta Kotliar paper position
Roberto Carballes Baena paper position
Frederico Ferreira Silva paper position
Alesia Breaz paper position
Mia Ristic paper position
Frances Tiafoe paper position
Baltimore Orioles paper position
Zachary Svajda paper position
Juncheng Shang paper position
Madison Keys paper position
No paper position
No paper position
Elisabetta Cocciaretto paper position
Sofia Kenin paper position
T1 paper position
T1 paper position
Mia Pohankova paper position
Just Players paper position
Elena Malygina paper position
Yes paper position
Yes paper position
Over paper position
Over paper position
No paper position
No paper position
Team Liquid paper position
Atlanta Braves paper position
Cincinnati Reds paper position
No paper position
San Francisco Giants paper position
G2 Esports paper position
San Diego Padres paper position
Chicago Cubs paper position
New York Mets paper position
Team Heretics paper position
Spirit paper position
No paper position
No paper position
Yes paper position
Yes paper position
Yes paper position
Up paper position
Up paper position
Down paper position
Down paper position
Team Vitality paper position
Team Vitality paper position
Liquid paper position
EDward Gaming paper position
TheMongolz paper position
EDward Gaming paper position
Team WE paper position
Johannus Monday paper position
Down paper position
Down paper position
Anyones Legend paper position
Down paper position
Up paper position
Down paper position
JD Gaming paper position
Down paper position
Down paper position
Down paper position
Down paper position
Up paper position
Down paper position
Up paper position
Recorded omissions
| Market | Evaluated | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels | The market had already reported an official settlement | |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Emma Navarro vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto | A complete entry quote was unavailable | |
| Will FC Santa Coloma win on 2026-07-29? | A complete entry quote was unavailable | |
| Will SK Rapid Wien vs. FC Santa Coloma end in a draw? | A complete entry quote was unavailable | |
| LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group | A complete entry quote was unavailable | |
| LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner | A complete entry quote was unavailable | |
| LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner | A complete entry quote was unavailable | |
| The Hundred, Women: Welsh Fire vs Trent Rockets | A complete entry quote was unavailable | |
| Overwatch: T1 vs Twisted Minds (BO3) - OCS Midseason Championship Group A | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Counter-Strike: Sangal ALTERS vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - United21 Group A | A complete entry quote was unavailable | |
| Bayer Leverkusen vs. KRC Genk: O/U 5.5 | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Dota 2: RE.Arise vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Dota 2: YBN Team vs VooDooSh Team - Game 1 Winner | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2026-07-29? | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Metro Bank One Day Cup: Sussex vs Essex | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| ITF Savitaipale: Clarissa Blomqvist vs Emma Ottavia Ghirardato | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| LoL: University of Mississippi vs CCG Esports (BO3) - North American Challengers League Group Stage | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Spread: Bayer Leverkusen (-1.5) | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| ITF Dublin: Sonja Zhiyenbayeva vs Alicia Dudeney | A complete entry quote was unavailable | |
| Games Total: O/U 2.5 | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Counter-Strike: Sangal ALTERS vs Fire Flux Esports - Map 2 Winner | A complete entry quote was unavailable | |
| Dota 2: RE.Arise vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner | A complete entry quote was unavailable | |
| ITF Dublin: Ammar Elamin vs Aaron Gabet | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| ITF Knokke-Heist: Anouck Vrancken Peeters vs Ikumi Yamazaki | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Overwatch: Spacestation Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - OCS Midseason Championship Group B | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Overwatch: Dallas Fuel vs Falcons (BO3) - OCS Midseason Championship Group A | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| ITF Knokke-Heist: Despina Papamichail vs Marie Weckerle | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Toronto Tempo vs. Minnesota Lynx | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| LoL: RED Canids vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season | A complete entry quote was unavailable | |
| Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-07-26? | A complete entry quote was unavailable | |
| Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-07-26? | A complete entry quote was unavailable | |
| Will Aalesunds FK win on 2026-07-26? | A complete entry quote was unavailable | |
| Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays | A complete entry quote was unavailable | |
| Will GAIS win on 2026-07-26? | A complete entry quote was unavailable | |
| Will Malmo FF win on 2026-07-26? | A complete entry quote was unavailable | |
| Will FC Nordsjælland win on 2026-07-26? | A complete entry quote was unavailable | |
| Will KFUM-Kameratene Oslo win on 2026-07-26? | A complete entry quote was unavailable | |
| Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix? | A complete entry quote was unavailable | |
| Segovia: Luka Pavlovic vs Mert Alkaya | The market had already reported an official settlement | |
| Hamburg European Open: Anna Bondar vs Alina Charaeva | The market had already reported an official settlement | |
| LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner | A complete entry quote was unavailable | |
| LoL: Team WE vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner | The market had already reported an official settlement | |
| Game Handicap: JDG (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) | A complete entry quote was unavailable | |
| Map Handicap: HERO (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) | A complete entry quote was unavailable | |
| Bloomfield Hills: Borna Gojo vs Dhakshineswar Suresh | The market had already reported an official settlement | |
| Winnipeg: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Duncan Chan | The market had already reported an official settlement | |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET | The market had already reported an official settlement | |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET | The market had already reported an official settlement | |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET | The market had already reported an official settlement | |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET | The market had already reported an official settlement | |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET | The market had already reported an official settlement | |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET | The market had already reported an official settlement | |
| Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox | The market had already reported an official settlement | |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET | The market had already reported an official settlement | |
| Solana Up or Down - July 23, 5AM ET | The market had already reported an official settlement | |
| Ethereum Up or Down - July 23, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET | The market had already reported an official settlement | |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 5AM ET | The market had already reported an official settlement | |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET | A complete entry quote was unavailable | |
| BNB Up or Down - July 22, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET | A complete entry quote was unavailable |
Strategy lab
These strategies run beside the featured model over the same candidates, prices, and fees, each with its own independent $1,000 paper ledger. The random-entry control selects candidates by a reproducible coin flip, so any strategy's edge must show up as outperformance against it. Pre-registered evaluation: at 100 closed positions or 8 weeks after activation (whichever comes first), a strategy passes only if it beats the control over the same period and is positive after fees.
2026-07-21.momentum-paper.v4Enters US markets from the published Largest Verified Moves list, sized $1–$25 by Evidence Score at the live ask. Positions close at official settlement, at the seven-day exit, or between pulses via the exit sentinel; a market can re-qualify after its position completes.
No paper position
The model holds No at 46.4¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 57¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 73¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 99¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 87¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 51.6¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 53¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 24¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 94¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 34¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 96¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 61.3¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Robert Valentin paper position
The model holds Robert Valentin at 61¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 49¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
2026-07-21.random-entry-control.v2The scientific control: draws from the same candidates by a reproducible coin flip with fixed $5 sizing and the same lifecycle, so any momentum edge has to show up as outperformance against it.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 47¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
2026-07-21.momentum-guarded.v2Momentum v4's rules plus one guard: it skips any candidate whose live ask is above 85 cents, testing whether avoiding expensive entries changes the outcome.
No paper position
The model holds No at 30¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
Global copy lab
These ledgers run on the Global Polymarket venue (its own fee model; spread is the only simulated cost) and copy tracked trader books: one follows the most profitable recent wallets, the other copies randomly selected active wallets with identical mechanics, so profitability-selection is the only difference. Wallets are never identified. Pre-registered evaluation: at 100 closed positions or 8 weeks after activation, the copy strategy passes only if it beats the random-copy control over the same period and is positive after costs.
2026-07-21.global-copy-top.v2Copies newly appeared positions from the 20 most profitable recently active Global Polymarket wallets at $5 per copy, and exits when the copied trader exits, at official resolution, or after 30 days. Wallets are never identified.
No paper position
The model holds No at 96.8¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 25¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 11¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 28¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 13¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 53¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 34¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 44¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 11¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 80¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Texas Rangers paper position
The model holds Texas Rangers at 43¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Under paper position
The model holds Under at 57¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
St. Louis Cardinals paper position
The model holds St. Louis Cardinals at 53¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Under paper position
The model holds Under at 48¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Global favorites lab
These ledgers test the documented favorite–longshot bias on the Global Polymarket venue (its own fee model; spread is the only simulated cost). One buys the favorite side priced 93–98¢ in markets closing within seven days; the control buys a reproducibly random side of the identical market pool with identical mechanics, so favorite-side selection is the only difference. Pre-registered evaluation: at 100 closed positions or 8 weeks after activation, the favorites strategy passes only if it beats the random-side control over the same period and is positive after costs.
2026-07-25.global-favorites.v1Tests the documented favorite–longshot bias: buys the favorite side priced 93–98¢ in Global markets closing within seven days, $5 per position, and holds to official resolution (30-day backstop).
No paper position
The model holds No at 94¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 97.9¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 94.3¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 97¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 94.5¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 97¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 97.9¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 96.3¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 94¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 97.8¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 97.4¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 97.5¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 97.7¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 97.9¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 97.5¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
2026-07-25.global-favorites-random.v1The favorites lab's control: buys a reproducibly random side of the same eligible markets with identical mechanics, so favorite-side selection is the only difference being tested.
No paper position
The model holds No at 93¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 94¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Entry timing lab
Every other ledger here may only act at the four scheduled daily runs. These test whether that matters. Each venue runs one ledger that re-checks the market every 15 minutes and enters as soon as a side’s live ask sits between 93 and 98 cents, beside a twin following the identical rule, sizing, and exits at the scheduled cadence alone. Both hold to official settlement, so the only difference between them is how often they may look. Pre-registered evaluation: at 100 closed positions or 8 weeks after activation, a trigger ledger passes only if it beats its own twin over the same period and is positive after costs.
2026-07-29.us-band-trigger.v1Re-checks a watchlist of US markets every 15 minutes and enters the moment a side's live ask sits between 93 and 98 cents, $5 per position, holding to official settlement.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
+4.50 paper position
The model holds +4.50 at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
+1.50 paper position
The model holds +1.50 at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
-1.50 paper position
The model holds -1.50 at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Over paper position
The model holds Over at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
+4.50 paper position
The model holds +4.50 at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Under paper position
The model holds Under at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
2026-07-29.us-band-pulse.v1The timing control: the identical US band rule, sizing, and exits, but evaluated only at the four scheduled daily runs — so the sole difference from its trigger twin is how often it may look.
-1.50 paper position
The model holds -1.50 at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
2026-07-29.global-band-trigger.v1The same 15-minute band rule on the zero-fee Global venue, where no taker fee stands between the observation and the result.
No paper position
The model holds No at 94.4¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 95.7¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
2026-07-29.global-band-pulse.v1The timing control for the Global band trigger: identical rule and costs, evaluated only at the four scheduled daily runs.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Previous strategy versions
Earlier immutable strategy versions stop entering new positions but keep marking, exiting, and settling their remaining open positions until each ledger completes. Their records remain part of the prospective evidence.
2026-07-20.random-entry-control.v1The previous random-entry control: reproducible coin-flip selection with fixed $5 sizing and pulse-only exits.
No open positions in this ledger right now.
2026-07-20.momentum-paper.v3The previous momentum version: live entry quotes, seven-day holds, and write-offs for unquotable markets, but positions close only at scheduled pulses rather than between them.
No open positions in this ledger right now.
2026-07-20.momentum-guarded.v1The previous price-guarded momentum: an 85-cent live-ask entry guard with pulse-only exits.
No open positions in this ledger right now.
2026-07-19.momentum-paper.v2The original momentum version: entries priced from the published snapshot quote, strict seven-day holds, and no re-entry into a market it ever held.
No open positions in this ledger right now.
2026-07-20.global-copy-random.v1The previous random-copy control: identical copy mechanics with pulse-only exits.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 4¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 76¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
The model holds Yes at 40¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
New York Mets paper position
The model holds New York Mets at 54.5¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 92¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Guilherme Pat paper position
The model holds Guilherme Pat at 42¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 41¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 97¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 94¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 74¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 45.5¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 83¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 23¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 86¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 95¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 37¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 94¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 55¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 24¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 61.3¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
The model holds Yes at 42¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 29¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 65¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 62¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 31.9¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 51¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 64¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 73¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 51.6¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 53¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 24¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 84¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 61.3¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Robert Valentin paper position
The model holds Robert Valentin at 61¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 49¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 29¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 6¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 94¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 95.9¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 94¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 96.9¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 96.4¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 95¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 2.4¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 97.9¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 5.7¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 96.3¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 94¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 94¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 97¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 97.8¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 3.2¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 6¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 10¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Over paper position
The model holds Over at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
-1.50 paper position
The model holds -1.50 at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
+4.50 paper position
The model holds +4.50 at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
+4.50 paper position
The model holds +4.50 at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
+1.50 paper position
The model holds +1.50 at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Daria Egorova paper position
The model holds Daria Egorova at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 95¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 97.1¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 97¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 95¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 96.5¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 97.9¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 97.8¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 95.6¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 97.7¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 95.9¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 96.9¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 97.2¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 95¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 94.9¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 96.9¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 97.9¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 97.9¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 96.9¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 97.2¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 94.9¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 96.8¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 95¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 94.6¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 93.9¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 94¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 95¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 96.4¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 93.7¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 96.9¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 94.7¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 97.9¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.