An auditable what-if ledger
A prospective record of how one fixed momentum model behaves after fees, stale quotes, timed exits, settlements, gains, and losses.
Prospective simulation
Strategy version 2026-07-21.global-copy-top.v2
Copies newly appeared positions from the 20 most profitable recently active Global Polymarket wallets at $5 per copy, and exits when the copied trader exits, at official resolution, or after 30 days. Wallets are never identified.
No real money is traded
Account record
100 recorded evaluations
| Evaluated | Paper cash | Open liquidation value | Simulated value | Change from initial |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $843.77 | $62.98 | $906.75 | −$93.25 | |
| $843.77 | $63.20 | $906.97 | −$93.03 | |
| $843.77 | $62.84 | $906.61 | −$93.39 | |
| $843.77 | $62.64 | $906.41 | −$93.59 | |
| $863.77 | $43.06 | $906.83 | −$93.17 | |
| $863.77 | $43.18 | $906.95 | −$93.05 | |
| $863.77 | $43.18 | $906.95 | −$93.05 | |
| $863.77 | $47.20 | $910.97 | −$89.03 | |
| $829.67 | $90.60 | $920.27 | −$79.73 | |
Fixed method
This section describes the active strategy version, 2026-07-21.momentum-paper.v4. Winding-down versions keep the exact rules recorded when they were active.
Candidate set. Only the published Largest Verified Moves section is considered.
Paper sizing. Evidence Score maps observable inputs to a $1–$25 maximum paper allocation.
Lifecycle. Entries use the live ask observed at evaluation, recorded next to the published snapshot quote. Marks and timed exits use the bid. Official settlement takes priority.
Holding period. A position leaves at the first evaluation within two hours of its seven-day deadline, or at official settlement, whichever happens first.
The five components below are rounded to whole points, then added together and capped at 100.
| Component | Points | Rule |
|---|---|---|
| Persistence | 0–35 | From up to seven daily side midpoints: 0 with no transition; otherwise 35 × upward transitions ÷ observed transitions × min(observed transitions ÷ 4, 1) |
| Quote quality | 0–25 | 25 × (10¢ − spread) ÷ 10¢, clamped from 0 to 25 |
| Movement magnitude | 0–20 | 20 × absolute movement ÷ 10 percentage points, clamped from 0 to 20 |
| Market activity | 2–10 | 2 + 8 × the midrank of source-backed activity among all other valid candidates (lower count plus half the equal count, ÷ other candidates). A single valid candidate uses 37.5%, producing 5 points. |
| Source freshness | 1–10 | 10 at ≤2h; 7 at ≤6h; 4 at ≤12h; 1 at ≤24h; older observations are skipped |
Paper allocation tiers: 0–39 = $1; 40–54 = $3; 55–69 = $5; 70–79 = $10; 80–89 = $15; 90–100 = $25.
Fees and quantity: The unrounded fee in dollars is 0.05 × contracts × price × (1 − price), then rounded to the nearest cent with half-even rounding. Quantity is the largest exact source minimum-trade increment whose ask notional plus rounded fee stays within its tier.
Ties and order: Candidates sort by total score, then published movement rank, then stable market ID. One contract per event may remain open, and a market can re-qualify only after its previous position completes.
Fresh marks and seven-day timed exits use the position-side bid and its fee. A quote must be observed inside the exit window to exit. Official settlement takes priority and has no simulated fee. If a market reports no quote or settlement for 72 hours past its deadline, the position is written off at its last trusted valuation and labeled as such.
| $829.67 |
| $88.43 |
| $918.10 |
| −$81.90 |
| $829.67 | $90.38 | $920.05 | −$79.95 |
| $845.23 | $82.72 | $927.95 | −$72.05 |
| $845.23 | $80.63 | $925.86 | −$74.14 |
| $845.23 | $86.35 | $931.58 | −$68.42 |
| $845.23 | $96.19 | $941.42 | −$58.58 |
| $845.23 | $94.61 | $939.84 | −$60.16 |
| $845.23 | $94.76 | $939.99 | −$60.01 |
| $845.23 | $94.86 | $940.09 | −$59.91 |
| $845.23 | $95.43 | $940.66 | −$59.34 |
| $845.23 | $95.73 | $940.96 | −$59.04 |
| $885.23 | $56.22 | $941.45 | −$58.55 |
| $885.23 | $56.34 | $941.57 | −$58.43 |
| $885.23 | $53.20 | $938.43 | −$61.57 |
| $885.23 | $56.71 | $941.94 | −$58.06 |
| $855.72 | $85.70 | $941.42 | −$58.58 |
| $855.72 | $93.16 | $948.88 | −$51.12 |
| $855.72 | $95.86 | $951.58 | −$48.42 |
| $855.72 | $95.50 | $951.22 | −$48.78 |
| $855.72 | $96.89 | $952.61 | −$47.39 |
| $855.72 | $95.88 | $951.60 | −$48.40 |
| $870.72 | $80.80 | $951.52 | −$48.48 |
| $870.72 | $80.87 | $951.59 | −$48.41 |
| $870.72 | $80.67 | $951.39 | −$48.61 |
| $870.72 | $80.98 | $951.70 | −$48.30 |
| $870.72 | $80.98 | $951.70 | −$48.30 |
| $905.72 | $47.18 | $952.90 | −$47.10 |
| $905.72 | $47.17 | $952.89 | −$47.11 |
| $905.72 | $47.26 | $952.98 | −$47.02 |
| $905.72 | $46.99 | $952.71 | −$47.29 |
| $905.72 | $80.42 | $986.14 | −$13.86 |
| $905.72 | $77.43 | $983.15 | −$16.85 |
| $905.72 | $90.22 | $995.94 | −$4.06 |
| $950.72 | $46.16 | $996.88 | −$3.12 |
| $950.72 | $45.94 | $996.66 | −$3.34 |
| $950.72 | $45.83 | $996.55 | −$3.45 |
| $950.72 | $45.94 | $996.66 | −$3.34 |
| $950.72 | $45.66 | $996.38 | −$3.62 |
| $950.72 | $45.09 | $995.81 | −$4.19 |
| $950.72 | $46.63 | $997.35 | −$2.65 |
| $950.72 | $46.56 | $997.28 | −$2.72 |
| $950.72 | $46.56 | $997.28 | −$2.72 |
| $950.72 | $46.56 | $997.28 | −$2.72 |
| $950.72 | $46.56 | $997.28 | −$2.72 |
| $950.72 | $46.56 | $997.28 | −$2.72 |
| $950.72 | $46.67 | $997.39 | −$2.61 |
| $933.87 | $63.52 | $997.39 | −$2.61 |
| $933.87 | $63.52 | $997.39 | −$2.61 |
| $933.87 | $63.30 | $997.17 | −$2.83 |
| $933.87 | $63.42 | $997.29 | −$2.71 |
| $933.87 | $63.42 | $997.29 | −$2.71 |
| $933.87 | $63.42 | $997.29 | −$2.71 |
| $933.87 | $63.42 | $997.29 | −$2.71 |
| $933.87 | $63.53 | $997.40 | −$2.60 |
| $933.87 | $63.53 | $997.40 | −$2.60 |
| $933.87 | $63.53 | $997.40 | −$2.60 |
| $933.87 | $63.53 | $997.40 | −$2.60 |
| $933.87 | $63.53 | $997.40 | −$2.60 |
| $933.87 | $63.53 | $997.40 | −$2.60 |
| $933.87 | $63.53 | $997.40 | −$2.60 |
| $928.44 | $69.18 | $997.62 | −$2.38 |
| $928.44 | $69.51 | $997.95 | −$2.05 |
| $918.03 | $84.53 | $1,002.56 | +$2.56 |
| $908.94 | $85.37 | $994.31 | −$5.69 |
| $898.94 | $100.34 | $999.28 | −$0.72 |
| $900.47 | $98.18 | $998.65 | −$1.35 |
| $900.47 | $93.38 | $993.85 | −$6.15 |
| $900.47 | $96.69 | $997.16 | −$2.84 |
| $925.47 | $72.14 | $997.61 | −$2.39 |
| $920.47 | $77.31 | $997.78 | −$2.22 |
| $920.47 | $77.30 | $997.77 | −$2.23 |
| $935.47 | $62.46 | $997.93 | −$2.07 |
| $935.47 | $62.23 | $997.70 | −$2.30 |
| $935.47 | $62.19 | $997.66 | −$2.34 |
| $935.47 | $62.25 | $997.72 | −$2.28 |
| $935.47 | $66.54 | $1,002.01 | +$2.01 |
| $935.47 | $66.56 | $1,002.03 | +$2.03 |
| $935.47 | $66.56 | $1,002.03 | +$2.03 |
| $935.47 | $66.56 | $1,002.03 | +$2.03 |
| $935.47 | $66.56 | $1,002.03 | +$2.03 |
| $899.76 | $102.46 | $1,002.22 | +$2.22 |
| $899.76 | $102.41 | $1,002.17 | +$2.17 |
| $899.76 | $84.24 | $984.00 | −$16.00 |
| $887.27 | $68.95 | $956.22 | −$43.78 |
| $887.27 | $68.61 | $955.88 | −$44.12 |
| $897.27 | $60.14 | $957.41 | −$42.59 |
| $897.27 | $60.11 | $957.38 | −$42.62 |
| $897.27 | $60.33 | $957.60 | −$42.40 |
| $897.27 | $60.40 | $957.67 | −$42.33 |
| $897.27 | $60.45 | $957.72 | −$42.28 |
| $897.27 | $59.88 | $957.15 | −$42.85 |
Each row was recorded after a scheduled Pulse run. Open positions are valued at the available bid; stale marks remain labeled in the position ledger.
Current ledger
No paper position
The model holds No at 96.8¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 25¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 11¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 28¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 13¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 53¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 34¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 44¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 11¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 80¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Texas Rangers paper position
The model holds Texas Rangers at 43¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Under paper position
The model holds Under at 57¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
St. Louis Cardinals paper position
The model holds St. Louis Cardinals at 53¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Under paper position
The model holds Under at 48¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Closed ledger
Atlanta Braves paper position
Under paper position
Atlanta Braves paper position
Cleveland Guardians paper position
Cleveland Guardians paper position
Over paper position
Over paper position
Over paper position
Over paper position
Colorado Rockies paper position
Toronto Blue Jays paper position
Under paper position
Philadelphia Phillies paper position
Under paper position
Pittsburgh Pirates paper position
Philadelphia Phillies paper position
Under paper position
Under paper position
Under paper position
Under paper position
Under paper position
Under paper position
Under paper position
Chicago White Sox paper position
Under paper position
Under paper position
Detroit Tigers paper position
Philadelphia Phillies paper position
Detroit Tigers paper position
Over paper position
Philadelphia Phillies paper position
Under paper position
No paper position
No paper position
Yes paper position
Joshua paper position
Under paper position
Houston Astros paper position
New York Yankees paper position
Over paper position
Arizona Diamondbacks paper position
Toronto Blue Jays paper position
Over paper position
Detroit Tigers paper position
Liquid paper position
Liquid paper position
Liquid paper position
Detroit Tigers paper position
Detroit Tigers paper position
Under paper position
Under paper position
Under paper position
St. Louis Cardinals paper position
Toronto Blue Jays paper position
Cleveland Guardians paper position
Under paper position
Cleveland Guardians paper position
Under paper position
Under paper position
Aurora Gaming paper position
Yes paper position
Over paper position
New York Yankees paper position
Under paper position
Baltimore Orioles paper position
Under paper position
Houston Astros paper position
Cleveland Guardians paper position
Under paper position
Cleveland Guardians paper position
Over paper position
Under paper position
Athletics paper position
Athletics paper position
Los Angeles Angels paper position
Los Angeles Angels paper position
San Francisco Giants paper position
New York Yankees paper position
New York Yankees paper position
Under paper position
San Francisco Giants paper position
Under paper position
Nemiga paper position
No paper position
Recorded omissions
| Market | Evaluated | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) | The market had already reported an official settlement | |
| Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 | The market had already reported an official settlement | |
| Nick Kurtz: Home Runs O/U 0.5 | The market had already reported an official settlement | |
| Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 | This market already had a recorded paper entry | |
| Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Rafael Devers: Home Runs O/U 0.5 | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| James Wood: Home Runs O/U 0.5 | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) | The market had already reported an official settlement | |
| Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) | The market had already reported an official settlement | |
| Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | The market had already reported an official settlement | |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals | The market had already reported an official settlement | |
| Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics | The market had already reported an official settlement | |
| James Wood: Home Runs O/U 0.5 | The market had already reported an official settlement | |
| Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins | This market already had a recorded paper entry | |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 | This market already had a recorded paper entry | |
| Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: Home Runs O/U 0.5 | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Joc Pederson: Home Runs O/U 0.5 | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Fernando Tatis Jr.: Home Runs O/U 0.5 | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Bryce Harper: Home Runs O/U 0.5 | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets | The market had already reported an official settlement | |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 | The market had already reported an official settlement | |
| Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 | The market had already reported an official settlement | |
| New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 | The market had already reported an official settlement | |
| New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 | The market had already reported an official settlement | |
| New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 12.5 | The market had already reported an official settlement | |
| New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5 | The market had already reported an official settlement | |
| New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 13.5 | The market had already reported an official settlement | |
| Los Angeles Angels vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 | The market had already reported an official settlement | |
| San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Los Angeles Angels vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5 | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Athletics vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 | The market had already reported an official settlement | |
| Los Angeles Angels vs. San Francisco Giants | The market had already reported an official settlement | |
| Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 | The market had already reported an official settlement | |
| Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles | The market had already reported an official settlement | |
| Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) | The market had already reported an official settlement | |
| Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates | The market had already reported an official settlement | |
| Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 | The market had already reported an official settlement | |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox | The market had already reported an official settlement | |
| Athletics vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 | The market had already reported an official settlement | |
| Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays | The market had already reported an official settlement | |
| Counter-Strike: Heroic vs TheMongolz (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier | The market had already reported an official settlement | |
| Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 | The market had already reported an official settlement | |
| Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 | The market had already reported an official settlement | |
| Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Eternal Fire (BO5) - European Pro League Series 8 Playoffs | A complete entry quote was unavailable | |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 | The market had already reported an official settlement | |
| Washington Nationals vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 | A complete entry quote was unavailable | |
| Athletics vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 | The market had already reported an official settlement | |
| Athletics vs. Arizona Diamondbacks | This market already had a recorded paper entry | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees | This market already had a recorded paper entry | |
| Generali Open: Alex Molcan vs Daniel Altmaier | The market had already reported an official settlement | |
| Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs G2 - Map 2 Winner | A complete entry quote was unavailable | |
| Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 | The market had already reported an official settlement | |
| Miami Marlins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5 | The market had already reported an official settlement | |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 | The market had already reported an official settlement | |
| Chicago White Sox vs. Texas Rangers | The market had already reported an official settlement | |
| Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago Cubs | The market had already reported an official settlement |
Strategy lab
These strategies run beside the featured model over the same candidates, prices, and fees, each with its own independent $1,000 paper ledger. The random-entry control selects candidates by a reproducible coin flip, so any strategy's edge must show up as outperformance against it. Pre-registered evaluation: at 100 closed positions or 8 weeks after activation (whichever comes first), a strategy passes only if it beats the control over the same period and is positive after fees.
2026-07-21.momentum-paper.v4Enters US markets from the published Largest Verified Moves list, sized $1–$25 by Evidence Score at the live ask. Positions close at official settlement, at the seven-day exit, or between pulses via the exit sentinel; a market can re-qualify after its position completes.
No paper position
The model holds No at 46.4¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 57¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 73¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 99¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 87¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 51.6¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 53¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 24¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 94¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 34¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 96¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 61.3¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Robert Valentin paper position
The model holds Robert Valentin at 61¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 49¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
2026-07-21.random-entry-control.v2The scientific control: draws from the same candidates by a reproducible coin flip with fixed $5 sizing and the same lifecycle, so any momentum edge has to show up as outperformance against it.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 47¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
2026-07-21.momentum-guarded.v2Momentum v4's rules plus one guard: it skips any candidate whose live ask is above 85 cents, testing whether avoiding expensive entries changes the outcome.
No paper position
The model holds No at 30¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
Global copy lab
These ledgers run on the Global Polymarket venue (its own fee model; spread is the only simulated cost) and copy tracked trader books: one follows the most profitable recent wallets, the other copies randomly selected active wallets with identical mechanics, so profitability-selection is the only difference. Wallets are never identified. Pre-registered evaluation: at 100 closed positions or 8 weeks after activation, the copy strategy passes only if it beats the random-copy control over the same period and is positive after costs.
2026-07-21.global-copy-random.v2The copy lab's control: identical copy mechanics over a reproducible random draw of active Global wallets, so selecting traders by profitability is the only difference being tested.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 0.5¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 0.5¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Harriet Dart paper position
The model holds Harriet Dart at 100¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 11¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 5.2¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 59¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 24¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 75¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 15¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Global favorites lab
These ledgers test the documented favorite–longshot bias on the Global Polymarket venue (its own fee model; spread is the only simulated cost). One buys the favorite side priced 93–98¢ in markets closing within seven days; the control buys a reproducibly random side of the identical market pool with identical mechanics, so favorite-side selection is the only difference. Pre-registered evaluation: at 100 closed positions or 8 weeks after activation, the favorites strategy passes only if it beats the random-side control over the same period and is positive after costs.
2026-07-25.global-favorites.v1Tests the documented favorite–longshot bias: buys the favorite side priced 93–98¢ in Global markets closing within seven days, $5 per position, and holds to official resolution (30-day backstop).
No paper position
The model holds No at 94¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 97.9¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 94.3¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 97¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 94.5¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 97¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 97.9¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 96.3¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 94¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 97.8¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 97.4¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 97.5¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 97.7¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 97.9¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 97.5¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
2026-07-25.global-favorites-random.v1The favorites lab's control: buys a reproducibly random side of the same eligible markets with identical mechanics, so favorite-side selection is the only difference being tested.
No paper position
The model holds No at 93¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 94¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Entry timing lab
Every other ledger here may only act at the four scheduled daily runs. These test whether that matters. Each venue runs one ledger that re-checks the market every 15 minutes and enters as soon as a side’s live ask sits between 93 and 98 cents, beside a twin following the identical rule, sizing, and exits at the scheduled cadence alone. Both hold to official settlement, so the only difference between them is how often they may look. Pre-registered evaluation: at 100 closed positions or 8 weeks after activation, a trigger ledger passes only if it beats its own twin over the same period and is positive after costs.
2026-07-29.us-band-trigger.v1Re-checks a watchlist of US markets every 15 minutes and enters the moment a side's live ask sits between 93 and 98 cents, $5 per position, holding to official settlement.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
+4.50 paper position
The model holds +4.50 at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
+1.50 paper position
The model holds +1.50 at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
-1.50 paper position
The model holds -1.50 at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Over paper position
The model holds Over at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
+4.50 paper position
The model holds +4.50 at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Under paper position
The model holds Under at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
2026-07-29.us-band-pulse.v1The timing control: the identical US band rule, sizing, and exits, but evaluated only at the four scheduled daily runs — so the sole difference from its trigger twin is how often it may look.
-1.50 paper position
The model holds -1.50 at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
2026-07-29.global-band-trigger.v1The same 15-minute band rule on the zero-fee Global venue, where no taker fee stands between the observation and the result.
No paper position
The model holds No at 94.4¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 95.7¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
2026-07-29.global-band-pulse.v1The timing control for the Global band trigger: identical rule and costs, evaluated only at the four scheduled daily runs.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Previous strategy versions
Earlier immutable strategy versions stop entering new positions but keep marking, exiting, and settling their remaining open positions until each ledger completes. Their records remain part of the prospective evidence.
2026-07-20.random-entry-control.v1The previous random-entry control: reproducible coin-flip selection with fixed $5 sizing and pulse-only exits.
No open positions in this ledger right now.
2026-07-20.momentum-paper.v3The previous momentum version: live entry quotes, seven-day holds, and write-offs for unquotable markets, but positions close only at scheduled pulses rather than between them.
No open positions in this ledger right now.
2026-07-20.momentum-guarded.v1The previous price-guarded momentum: an 85-cent live-ask entry guard with pulse-only exits.
No open positions in this ledger right now.
2026-07-19.momentum-paper.v2The original momentum version: entries priced from the published snapshot quote, strict seven-day holds, and no re-entry into a market it ever held.
No open positions in this ledger right now.
2026-07-20.global-copy-random.v1The previous random-copy control: identical copy mechanics with pulse-only exits.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 4¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 76¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
The model holds Yes at 40¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
New York Mets paper position
The model holds New York Mets at 54.5¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 92¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Guilherme Pat paper position
The model holds Guilherme Pat at 42¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 41¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 97¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 94¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 74¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 45.5¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 83¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 23¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 86¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 95¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 37¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 94¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 55¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 24¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 61.3¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
The model holds Yes at 42¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 29¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 65¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 62¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 31.9¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 51¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 64¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 73¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 51.6¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 53¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 24¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 84¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 61.3¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Robert Valentin paper position
The model holds Robert Valentin at 61¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 49¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 29¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 6¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 94¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 95.9¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 94¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 96.9¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 96.4¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 95¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 2.4¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 97.9¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 5.7¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 96.3¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 94¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 94¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 97¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 97.8¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 3.2¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 6¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 10¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Over paper position
The model holds Over at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
-1.50 paper position
The model holds -1.50 at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
+4.50 paper position
The model holds +4.50 at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
+4.50 paper position
The model holds +4.50 at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
+1.50 paper position
The model holds +1.50 at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Daria Egorova paper position
The model holds Daria Egorova at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 95¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 97.1¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 97¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 95¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 96.5¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 97.9¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 97.8¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 95.6¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 97.7¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 95.9¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 96.9¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 97.2¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 95¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 94.9¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 96.9¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 97.9¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 97.9¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 96.9¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 97.2¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 94.9¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 96.8¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 95¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 94.6¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 93.9¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 94¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 95¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 96.4¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 93.7¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 96.9¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 94.7¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 97.9¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.