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An auditable what-if ledger

Paper Portfolio

A prospective record of how one fixed momentum model behaves after fees, stale quotes, timed exits, settlements, gains, and losses.

Prospective simulation

Paper Portfolio

Strategy version 2026-07-19.momentum-paper.v2

The original momentum version: entries priced from the published snapshot quote, strict seven-day holds, and no re-entry into a market it ever held.

No real money is traded

Paper cash$976.88

Open liquidation value$0.00

Simulated value$976.88

Initial paper balance: $1,000.00
Total paper gain/loss: −$23.12 (−2.31%)
Paper cash: $976.88
Open positions: 0
Completed positions: 28
Source evidence: Jul 27, 2026, 10:17 AM UTC
Last evaluated: Jul 27, 2026, 10:17 AM UTC

This is a prospective paper-trading experiment. Entries use point-in-time market data and are never added, removed, or revised based on later outcomes. Evidence Score describes the strength of observable inputs—not outcome probability. This complete ledger includes qualifying entries, skips, fees, gains, and losses. Simulated results do not represent guaranteed or expected returns.

View complete paper ledger

Account record

Paper value history

31 recorded evaluations

Point-in-time paper cash, liquidation value, and simulated value
Evaluated	Paper cash	Open liquidation value	Simulated value	Change from initial
Jul 27, 2026, 10:17 AM UTC	$976.88	$0.00	$976.88	−$23.12
Jul 26, 2026, 10:13 PM UTC	$919.38	$57.98	$977.36	−$22.64
Jul 26, 2026, 6:14 PM UTC	$919.38	$55.49	$974.87	−$25.13
Jul 26, 2026, 2:12 PM UTC	$919.38	$55.33	$974.71	−$25.29
Jul 26, 2026, 10:13 AM UTC	$919.38	$55.54	$974.92	−$25.08
Jul 25, 2026, 10:14 PM UTC	$919.38	$51.33	$970.71	−$29.29
Jul 25, 2026, 6:13 PM UTC	$919.38	$54.52	$973.90	−$26.10
Jul 25, 2026, 2:13 PM UTC	$919.38	$57.64	$977.02	−$22.98
Jul 25, 2026, 10:14 AM UTC	$919.38	$54.19	$973.57	−$26.43
Jul 24, 2026, 10:15 PM UTC

Fixed method

How the experiment works

This section describes the active strategy version, 2026-07-21.momentum-paper.v4. Winding-down versions keep the exact rules recorded when they were active.

Candidate set. Only the published Largest Verified Moves section is considered.

Paper sizing. Evidence Score maps observable inputs to a $1–$25 maximum paper allocation.

Lifecycle. Entries use the live ask observed at evaluation, recorded next to the published snapshot quote. Marks and timed exits use the bid. Official settlement takes priority.

Holding period. A position leaves at the first evaluation within two hours of its seven-day deadline, or at official settlement, whichever happens first.

Exact Evidence Score formula

The five components below are rounded to whole points, then added together and capped at 100.

Evidence Score component rules
Component	Points	Rule
Persistence	0–35	From up to seven daily side midpoints: 0 with no transition; otherwise 35 × upward transitions ÷ observed transitions × min(observed transitions ÷ 4, 1)
Quote quality	0–25	25 × (10¢ − spread) ÷ 10¢, clamped from 0 to 25
Movement magnitude	0–20	20 × absolute movement ÷ 10 percentage points, clamped from 0 to 20
Market activity	2–10	2 + 8 × the midrank of source-backed activity among all other valid candidates (lower count plus half the equal count, ÷ other candidates). A single valid candidate uses 37.5%, producing 5 points.
Source freshness	1–10	10 at ≤2h; 7 at ≤6h; 4 at ≤12h; 1 at ≤24h; older observations are skipped

Paper allocation tiers: 0–39 = $1; 40–54 = $3; 55–69 = $5; 70–79 = $10; 80–89 = $15; 90–100 = $25.

Fees and quantity: The unrounded fee in dollars is 0.05 × contracts × price × (1 − price), then rounded to the nearest cent with half-even rounding. Quantity is the largest exact source minimum-trade increment whose ask notional plus rounded fee stays within its tier.

Ties and order: Candidates sort by total score, then published movement rank, then stable market ID. One contract per event may remain open, and a market can re-qualify only after its previous position completes.

Fresh marks and seven-day timed exits use the position-side bid and its fee. A quote must be observed inside the exit window to exit. Official settlement takes priority and has no simulated fee. If a market reports no quote or settlement for 72 hours past its deadline, the position is written off at its last trusted valuation and labeled as such.

Jul 24, 2026, 6:13 PM UTC	$903.80	$73.45	$977.25	−$22.75

Jul 24, 2026, 2:14 PM UTC	$903.80	$61.87	$965.67	−$34.33

Jul 23, 2026, 10:15 PM UTC	$903.80	$68.26	$972.06	−$27.94

Jul 23, 2026, 6:12 PM UTC	$903.80	$67.70	$971.50	−$28.50

Jul 23, 2026, 2:14 PM UTC	$903.80	$66.82	$970.62	−$29.38

Jul 23, 2026, 10:14 AM UTC	$903.80	$64.38	$968.18	−$31.82

Jul 22, 2026, 10:14 PM UTC	$903.80	$46.87	$950.67	−$49.33

Jul 22, 2026, 6:18 PM UTC	$903.80	$68.03	$971.83	−$28.17

Jul 22, 2026, 2:15 PM UTC	$903.80	$71.05	$974.85	−$25.15

Jul 22, 2026, 10:15 AM UTC	$903.80	$67.00	$970.80	−$29.20

Jul 21, 2026, 10:33 PM UTC	$903.80	$71.63	$975.43	−$24.57

Jul 21, 2026, 2:15 PM UTC	$903.80	$72.71	$976.51	−$23.49

Jul 21, 2026, 10:13 AM UTC	$903.80	$69.75	$973.55	−$26.45

Jul 20, 2026, 10:12 PM UTC	$903.80	$60.63	$964.43	−$35.57

Jul 20, 2026, 6:22 PM UTC	$903.80	$59.45	$963.25	−$36.75

Jul 20, 2026, 2:18 PM UTC	$890.56	$67.49	$958.05	−$41.95

Jul 20, 2026, 1:37 PM UTC	$847.86	$99.33	$947.19	−$52.81

Jul 20, 2026, 10:12 AM UTC	$819.09	$121.27	$940.36	−$59.64

Jul 20, 2026, 2:37 AM UTC	$821.76	$136.22	$957.98	−$42.02

Jul 19, 2026, 10:47 PM UTC	$825.48	$166.92	$992.40	−$7.60

Jul 19, 2026, 8:15 PM UTC	$1,000.00	$0.00	$1,000.00	$0.00

Closed ledger

Completed paper positions

Yes paper position

2026 Brazil Presidential Election Winner

Paper loss−$4.03

Point-in-time markTimed exit

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 70¢
Entry fee: $0.07
Entry cost: $4.97
Final proceeds: $0.94
Exit fee: $0.04
Observed movement: +6 pp
Opened: Jul 19, 2026, 10:47 PM UTC
Position age: 7d 11h
Valuation observed: Jul 27, 2026, 10:17 AM UTC
Scheduled exit: Jul 26, 2026, 10:47 PM UTC

Evidence Score69/100

Persistence: 21/35
Quote quality: 23/25
Movement magnitude: 12/20
Market activity: 3/10
Source freshness: 10/10

Yes paper position

MLB Best Regular Season Record

Paper loss−$2.16

Point-in-time markTimed exit

Paper allocation: $10.00
Entry ask: 78¢
Entry fee: $0.11
Entry cost: $9.99
Final proceeds: $7.83
Exit fee: $0.15
Observed movement: +9 pp
Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 2:37 AM UTC
Position age: 7d 7h
Valuation observed: Jul 27, 2026, 10:17 AM UTC
Scheduled exit: Jul 27, 2026, 2:37 AM UTC

Evidence Score77/100

Persistence: 23/35
Quote quality: 23/25
Movement magnitude: 18/20
Market activity: 3/10
Source freshness: 10/10

No paper position

Fed Rate Hike in 2026?

Paper loss−$2.68

Point-in-time markTimed exit

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 59¢
Entry fee: $0.10
Entry cost: $5.00
Final proceeds: $2.32
Exit fee: $0.09
Observed movement: -7 pp
Opened: Jul 19, 2026, 10:47 PM UTC
Position age: 7d 11h
Valuation observed: Jul 27, 2026, 10:17 AM UTC
Scheduled exit: Jul 26, 2026, 10:47 PM UTC

Evidence Score65/100

Persistence: 23/35
Quote quality: 13/25
Movement magnitude: 14/20
Market activity: 5/10
Source freshness: 10/10

Yes paper position

Serie A Champion

Paper loss−$2.13

Point-in-time markTimed exit

Paper allocation: $10.00
Entry ask: 62¢
Entry fee: $0.19
Entry cost: $10.00
Final proceeds: $7.87
Exit fee: $0.20
Observed movement: +5 pp
Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 2:37 AM UTC
Position age: 7d 7h
Valuation observed: Jul 27, 2026, 10:17 AM UTC
Scheduled exit: Jul 27, 2026, 2:37 AM UTC

Evidence Score76/100

Persistence: 29/35
Quote quality: 23/25
Movement magnitude: 10/20
Market activity: 4/10
Source freshness: 10/10

Yes paper position

MLB Worst Regular Season Record

Paper loss−$1.06

Point-in-time markTimed exit

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 38¢
Entry fee: $0.15
Entry cost: $5.00
Final proceeds: $3.94
Exit fee: $0.14
Observed movement: +9 pp
Opened: Jul 19, 2026, 10:47 PM UTC
Position age: 7d 11h
Valuation observed: Jul 27, 2026, 10:17 AM UTC
Scheduled exit: Jul 26, 2026, 10:47 PM UTC

Evidence Score67/100

Persistence: 12/35
Quote quality: 23/25
Movement magnitude: 18/20
Market activity: 4/10
Source freshness: 10/10

No paper position

Clacton By-Election Winner

Paper loss−$12.24

Point-in-time markTimed exit

Paper allocation: $15.00
Entry ask: 30¢
Entry fee: $0.51
Entry cost: $15.00
Final proceeds: $2.76
Exit fee: $0.14
Observed movement: -23.5 pp
Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 10:12 AM UTC
Position age: 7d 0h
Valuation observed: Jul 27, 2026, 10:17 AM UTC
Scheduled exit: Jul 27, 2026, 10:12 AM UTC

Evidence Score80/100

Persistence: 18/35
Quote quality: 23/25
Movement magnitude: 20/20
Market activity: 9/10
Source freshness: 10/10

Quillan Salkilld paper position

Who will win in the upcoming mma event Mateusz Gamrot vs Quillan Salkilld scheduled for August 8, 2026 at 9:00 PM UTC?

Paper loss−$1.05

Point-in-time markTimed exit

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 63¢
Entry fee: $0.09
Entry cost: $5.00
Final proceeds: $3.95
Exit fee: $0.10
Observed movement: -11 pp
Opened: Jul 19, 2026, 10:47 PM UTC
Position age: 7d 11h
Valuation observed: Jul 27, 2026, 10:17 AM UTC
Scheduled exit: Jul 26, 2026, 10:47 PM UTC

Evidence Score67/100

Persistence: 14/35
Quote quality: 18/25
Movement magnitude: 20/20
Market activity: 5/10
Source freshness: 10/10

No paper position

Ballon d'Or 2026 Winner

Paper loss−$0.16

Point-in-time markTimed exit

Paper allocation: $10.00
Entry ask: 95¢
Entry fee: $0.02
Entry cost: $10.00
Final proceeds: $9.84
Exit fee: $0.03
Observed movement: -41 pp
Opened: Jul 19, 2026, 10:47 PM UTC
Position age: 7d 11h
Valuation observed: Jul 27, 2026, 10:17 AM UTC
Scheduled exit: Jul 26, 2026, 10:47 PM UTC

Evidence Score72/100

Persistence: 12/35
Quote quality: 23/25
Movement magnitude: 20/20
Market activity: 7/10
Source freshness: 10/10

Yes paper position

National League MVP

Paper gain+$2.61

Point-in-time markTimed exit

Paper allocation: $10.00
Entry ask: 24.7¢
Entry fee: $0.36
Entry cost: $9.99
Final proceeds: $12.60
Exit fee: $0.43
Observed movement: +19.1 pp
Opened: Jul 19, 2026, 10:47 PM UTC
Position age: 7d 11h
Valuation observed: Jul 27, 2026, 10:17 AM UTC
Scheduled exit: Jul 26, 2026, 10:47 PM UTC

Evidence Score76/100

Persistence: 18/35
Quote quality: 25/25
Movement magnitude: 20/20
Market activity: 3/10
Source freshness: 10/10

No paper position

National League Rookie of the Year

Paper gain+$0.54

Point-in-time markTimed exit

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 43.4¢
Entry fee: $0.14
Entry cost: $4.91
Final proceeds: $5.45
Exit fee: $0.14
Observed movement: -13.9 pp
Opened: Jul 19, 2026, 10:47 PM UTC
Position age: 7d 11h
Valuation observed: Jul 27, 2026, 10:17 AM UTC
Scheduled exit: Jul 26, 2026, 10:47 PM UTC

Evidence Score69/100

Persistence: 12/35
Quote quality: 25/25
Movement magnitude: 20/20
Market activity: 2/10
Source freshness: 10/10

Thomas Petersen paper position

Thomas Petersen vs. Valter Walker

Paper loss−$4.70

Point-in-time markSettled

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 35¢
Entry fee: $0.15
Entry cost: $4.70
Final proceeds: $0.00
Exit fee: $0.00
Observed movement: +5 pp
Opened: Jul 19, 2026, 10:47 PM UTC
Position age: 5d 19h
Valuation observed: Jul 25, 2026, 6:13 PM UTC
Scheduled exit: Jul 26, 2026, 10:47 PM UTC

Evidence Score66/100

Persistence: 18/35
Quote quality: 23/25
Movement magnitude: 10/20
Market activity: 5/10
Source freshness: 10/10

No paper position

LeBron James Next Team

Paper gain+$5.58

Point-in-time markSettled

Paper allocation: $10.00
Entry ask: 63¢
Entry fee: $0.18
Entry cost: $10.00
Final proceeds: $15.58
Exit fee: $0.00
Observed movement: -14 pp
Opened: Jul 19, 2026, 10:47 PM UTC
Position age: 5d 11h
Valuation observed: Jul 25, 2026, 10:14 AM UTC
Scheduled exit: Jul 26, 2026, 10:47 PM UTC

Evidence Score79/100

Persistence: 18/35
Quote quality: 23/25
Movement magnitude: 20/20
Market activity: 8/10
Source freshness: 10/10

Yes paper position

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on July 19?

Paper gain+$0.20

Point-in-time markSettled

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 96¢
Entry fee: $0.01
Entry cost: $4.99
Final proceeds: $5.19
Exit fee: $0.00
Observed movement: +45.5 pp
Opened: Jul 19, 2026, 10:47 PM UTC
Position age: 19h
Valuation observed: Jul 20, 2026, 6:22 PM UTC
Scheduled exit: Jul 26, 2026, 10:47 PM UTC

Evidence Score67/100

Persistence: 9/35
Quote quality: 20/25
Movement magnitude: 20/20
Market activity: 8/10
Source freshness: 10/10

NCG Esports paper position

Who will win in the upcoming esports event 3v Team vs NCG Esports scheduled for July 20, 2026 at 2:00 AM UTC?

Paper loss−$1.95

Point-in-time markSettled

Paper allocation: $10.00
Entry ask: 41¢
Entry fee: $0.29
Entry cost: $10.00
Final proceeds: $8.05
Exit fee: $0.00
Observed movement: -19 pp
Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 2:37 AM UTC
Position age: 15h
Valuation observed: Jul 20, 2026, 6:22 PM UTC
Scheduled exit: Jul 27, 2026, 2:37 AM UTC

Evidence Score71/100

Persistence: 9/35
Quote quality: 23/25
Movement magnitude: 20/20
Market activity: 9/10
Source freshness: 10/10

Kiwoom DRX paper position

Who will win in the upcoming esports event Kiwoom DRX vs KT Rolster scheduled for July 20, 2026 at 12:00 PM UTC?

Paper gain+$27.70

Point-in-time markSettled

Paper allocation: $15.00
Entry ask: 34¢
Entry fee: $0.48
Entry cost: $15.00
Final proceeds: $42.70
Exit fee: $0.00
Observed movement: +7 pp
Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 10:12 AM UTC
Position age: 4h
Valuation observed: Jul 20, 2026, 2:18 PM UTC
Scheduled exit: Jul 27, 2026, 10:12 AM UTC

Evidence Score80/100

Persistence: 26/35
Quote quality: 23/25
Movement magnitude: 14/20
Market activity: 7/10
Source freshness: 10/10

Yes paper position

Highest temperature in Chicago on July 19?

Paper gain+$0.58

Point-in-time markSettled

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 89¢
Entry fee: $0.03
Entry cost: $5.00
Final proceeds: $5.58
Exit fee: $0.00
Observed movement: +68.5 pp
Opened: Jul 19, 2026, 10:47 PM UTC
Position age: 14h
Valuation observed: Jul 20, 2026, 1:37 PM UTC
Scheduled exit: Jul 26, 2026, 10:47 PM UTC

Evidence Score68/100

Persistence: 9/35
Quote quality: 23/25
Movement magnitude: 20/20
Market activity: 6/10
Source freshness: 10/10

Nongshim Red Force paper position

Who will win in the upcoming esports event Nongshim Red Force vs BNK FEARX scheduled for July 20, 2026 at 11:15 AM UTC?

Paper gain+$2.37

Point-in-time markSettled

Paper allocation: $10.00
Entry ask: 80¢
Entry fee: $0.10
Entry cost: $10.00
Final proceeds: $12.37
Exit fee: $0.00
Observed movement: +33 pp
Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 10:12 AM UTC
Position age: 3h
Valuation observed: Jul 20, 2026, 1:37 PM UTC
Scheduled exit: Jul 27, 2026, 10:12 AM UTC

Evidence Score79/100

Persistence: 18/35
Quote quality: 23/25
Movement magnitude: 20/20
Market activity: 8/10
Source freshness: 10/10

DN SOOPers paper position

Who will win in the upcoming esports event DN SOOPers vs KT Rolster scheduled for July 20, 2026 at 9:45 AM UTC?

Paper loss−$5.00

Point-in-time markSettled

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 23¢
Entry fee: $0.19
Entry cost: $5.00
Final proceeds: $0.00
Exit fee: $0.00
Observed movement: +5 pp
Opened: Jul 19, 2026, 10:47 PM UTC
Position age: 14h
Valuation observed: Jul 20, 2026, 1:37 PM UTC
Scheduled exit: Jul 26, 2026, 10:47 PM UTC

Evidence Score66/100

Persistence: 18/35
Quote quality: 23/25
Movement magnitude: 10/20
Market activity: 5/10
Source freshness: 10/10

Yes paper position

Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 19?

Paper gain+$0.78

Point-in-time markSettled

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 86¢
Entry fee: $0.03
Entry cost: $4.99
Final proceeds: $5.77
Exit fee: $0.00
Observed movement: +83 pp
Opened: Jul 19, 2026, 10:47 PM UTC
Position age: 14h
Valuation observed: Jul 20, 2026, 1:37 PM UTC
Scheduled exit: Jul 26, 2026, 10:47 PM UTC

Evidence Score69/100

Persistence: 9/35
Quote quality: 23/25
Movement magnitude: 20/20
Market activity: 7/10
Source freshness: 10/10

Yes paper position

Highest temperature in Miami on July 19?

Paper gain+$0.05

Point-in-time markSettled

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 99¢
Entry fee: $0.00
Entry cost: $5.00
Final proceeds: $5.05
Exit fee: $0.00
Observed movement: +72 pp
Opened: Jul 19, 2026, 10:47 PM UTC
Position age: 14h
Valuation observed: Jul 20, 2026, 1:37 PM UTC
Scheduled exit: Jul 26, 2026, 10:47 PM UTC

Evidence Score69/100

Persistence: 9/35
Quote quality: 23/25
Movement magnitude: 20/20
Market activity: 7/10
Source freshness: 10/10

Yuya Hirose paper position

Who will win in the upcoming tennis event Yuttana Charoenphon vs Yuya Hirose scheduled for July 20, 2026 at 1:00 AM UTC?

Paper loss−$10.00

Point-in-time markSettled

Paper allocation: $10.00
Entry ask: 36¢
Entry fee: $0.31
Entry cost: $10.00
Final proceeds: $0.00
Exit fee: $0.00
Observed movement: -10 pp
Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 2:37 AM UTC
Position age: 7h
Valuation observed: Jul 20, 2026, 10:12 AM UTC
Scheduled exit: Jul 27, 2026, 2:37 AM UTC

Evidence Score72/100

Persistence: 9/35
Quote quality: 23/25
Movement magnitude: 20/20
Market activity: 10/10
Source freshness: 10/10

LYON Academy paper position

Who will win in the upcoming esports event LYON Academy vs Zeu5 Esports scheduled for July 20, 2026 at 2:00 AM UTC?

Paper loss−$10.00

Point-in-time markSettled

Paper allocation: $10.00
Entry ask: 29¢
Entry fee: $0.34
Entry cost: $10.00
Final proceeds: $0.00
Exit fee: $0.00
Observed movement: +8.5 pp
Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 2:37 AM UTC
Position age: 7h
Valuation observed: Jul 20, 2026, 10:12 AM UTC
Scheduled exit: Jul 27, 2026, 2:37 AM UTC

Evidence Score77/100

Persistence: 18/35
Quote quality: 23/25
Movement magnitude: 17/20
Market activity: 9/10
Source freshness: 10/10

Yes paper position

2026 NBA Summer League Champion

Paper gain+$22.33

Point-in-time markSettled

Paper allocation: $15.00
Entry ask: 39¢
Entry fee: $0.44
Entry cost: $15.00
Final proceeds: $37.33
Exit fee: $0.00
Observed movement: +16.5 pp
Opened: Jul 19, 2026, 10:47 PM UTC
Position age: 11h
Valuation observed: Jul 20, 2026, 10:12 AM UTC
Scheduled exit: Jul 26, 2026, 10:47 PM UTC

Evidence Score82/100

Persistence: 23/35
Quote quality: 23/25
Movement magnitude: 20/20
Market activity: 6/10
Source freshness: 10/10

Washington Nationals paper position

Who will win in the upcoming baseball event Washington Nationals vs Athletics scheduled for July 19, 2026 at 8:05 PM UTC?

Paper gain+$0.08

Point-in-time markSettled

Paper allocation: $15.00
Entry ask: 99.5¢
Entry fee: $0.00
Entry cost: $14.99
Final proceeds: $15.07
Exit fee: $0.00
Observed movement: +44.5 pp
Opened: Jul 19, 2026, 10:47 PM UTC
Position age: 3h
Valuation observed: Jul 20, 2026, 2:37 AM UTC
Scheduled exit: Jul 26, 2026, 10:47 PM UTC

Evidence Score82/100

Persistence: 18/35
Quote quality: 24/25
Movement magnitude: 20/20
Market activity: 10/10
Source freshness: 10/10

-1.50 paper position

Will the St. Louis Cardinals cover -1.5 vs the Arizona Diamondbacks in St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks?

Paper loss−$14.99

Point-in-time markSettled

Paper allocation: $15.00
Entry ask: 75¢
Entry fee: $0.19
Entry cost: $14.99
Final proceeds: $0.00
Exit fee: $0.00
Observed movement: +38.8 pp
Opened: Jul 19, 2026, 10:47 PM UTC
Position age: 3h
Valuation observed: Jul 20, 2026, 2:37 AM UTC
Scheduled exit: Jul 26, 2026, 10:47 PM UTC

Evidence Score81/100

Persistence: 18/35
Quote quality: 24/25
Movement magnitude: 20/20
Market activity: 9/10
Source freshness: 10/10

Seattle Mariners paper position

Who will win in the upcoming baseball event San Francisco Giants vs Seattle Mariners scheduled for July 19, 2026 at 8:10 PM UTC?

Paper gain+$0.30

Point-in-time markSettled

Paper allocation: $15.00
Entry ask: 98¢
Entry fee: $0.01
Entry cost: $14.99
Final proceeds: $15.29
Exit fee: $0.00
Observed movement: -36.5 pp
Opened: Jul 19, 2026, 10:47 PM UTC
Position age: 3h
Valuation observed: Jul 20, 2026, 2:37 AM UTC
Scheduled exit: Jul 26, 2026, 10:47 PM UTC

Evidence Score82/100

Persistence: 18/35
Quote quality: 24/25
Movement magnitude: 20/20
Market activity: 10/10
Source freshness: 10/10

Raptors paper position

Who will win in the upcoming basketball event Toronto Raptors vs Denver Nuggets scheduled for July 19, 2026 at 10:30 PM UTC?

Paper loss−$15.00

Point-in-time markSettled

Paper allocation: $15.00
Entry ask: 70¢
Entry fee: $0.22
Entry cost: $15.00
Final proceeds: $0.00
Exit fee: $0.00
Observed movement: +10 pp
Opened: Jul 19, 2026, 10:47 PM UTC
Position age: 3h
Valuation observed: Jul 20, 2026, 2:37 AM UTC
Scheduled exit: Jul 26, 2026, 10:47 PM UTC

Evidence Score80/100

Persistence: 18/35
Quote quality: 23/25
Movement magnitude: 20/20
Market activity: 9/10
Source freshness: 10/10

Los Angeles Angels paper position

Who will win in the upcoming baseball event Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels scheduled for July 19, 2026 at 8:07 PM UTC?

Paper gain+$0.91

Point-in-time markSettled

Paper allocation: $15.00
Entry ask: 94¢
Entry fee: $0.04
Entry cost: $15.00
Final proceeds: $15.91
Exit fee: $0.00
Observed movement: -51.5 pp
Opened: Jul 19, 2026, 10:47 PM UTC
Position age: 3h
Valuation observed: Jul 20, 2026, 2:37 AM UTC
Scheduled exit: Jul 26, 2026, 10:47 PM UTC

Evidence Score82/100

Persistence: 18/35
Quote quality: 24/25
Movement magnitude: 20/20
Market activity: 10/10
Source freshness: 10/10

Recorded omissions

Recent skipped observations

Recent candidates that did not create a paper position
Market	Evaluated	Reason
Who will win in the upcoming esports event DN SOOPers vs KT Rolster scheduled for July 20, 2026 at 9:45 AM UTC?	Jul 20, 2026, 10:12 AM UTC	Another contract from the event was already open
LeBron James Next Team	Jul 20, 2026, 10:12 AM UTC	Another contract from the event was already open
Who will win in the upcoming baseball event Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles vs Saitama Seibu Lions scheduled for July 20, 2026 at 7:00 AM UTC?	Jul 20, 2026, 10:12 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Ella Seidel vs. Daria Snigur	Jul 20, 2026, 10:12 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Who will win in the upcoming esports event TEC Esports vs All Gamers scheduled for July 20, 2026 at 9:00 AM UTC?	Jul 20, 2026, 10:12 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
LeBron James Next Team	Jul 20, 2026, 10:12 AM UTC	Another contract from the event was already open
Who will win in the upcoming baseball event Chiba Lotte Marines vs Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks scheduled for July 20, 2026 at 8:00 AM UTC?	Jul 20, 2026, 10:12 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Who will win in the upcoming baseball event Tokyo Yakult Swallows vs Chunichi Dragons scheduled for July 20, 2026 at 9:00 AM UTC?	Jul 20, 2026, 10:12 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Varvara Lepchenko vs. Elina Avanesyan	Jul 20, 2026, 10:12 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Who will win in the upcoming esports event 3v Team vs NCG Esports scheduled for July 20, 2026 at 2:00 AM UTC?	Jul 20, 2026, 10:12 AM UTC	Another contract from the event was already open
Alexandre Muller vs. Mariano Navone	Jul 20, 2026, 10:12 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Who will win in the upcoming esports event Kiwoom DRX vs BNK FEARX scheduled for July 20, 2026 at 9:00 AM UTC?	Jul 20, 2026, 10:12 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Alisa Oktiabreva vs. Oceane Dodin	Jul 20, 2026, 10:12 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Who will win in the upcoming esports event Team Syntax vs Team Lynx scheduled for July 20, 2026 at 7:00 AM UTC?	Jul 20, 2026, 10:12 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Ballon d'Or 2026 Winner	Jul 20, 2026, 10:12 AM UTC	Another contract from the event was already open
Who will win in the upcoming tennis event Amelie Justine Hejtmanek vs Thale Myhre scheduled for July 19, 2026 at 12:00 PM UTC?	Jul 20, 2026, 10:12 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Who will win in the upcoming baseball event Yomiuri Giants vs Hiroshima Carp scheduled for July 20, 2026 at 9:00 AM UTC?	Jul 20, 2026, 10:12 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Who will win in the upcoming esports event Team Lynx vs PuckChamp scheduled for July 20, 2026 at 10:00 AM UTC?	Jul 20, 2026, 10:12 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Highest temperature in NYC on July 20?	Jul 20, 2026, 10:12 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Moez Echargui vs. Lloyd Harris	Jul 20, 2026, 10:12 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 20?	Jul 20, 2026, 10:12 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Pro Football Playoff Qualifiers	Jul 20, 2026, 10:12 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Highest temperature in Los Angeles on July 20?	Jul 20, 2026, 10:12 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Who will win in the upcoming esports event Infinite vs Team Nemesis scheduled for July 22, 2026 at 1:00 PM UTC?	Jul 20, 2026, 10:12 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Highest temperature in Los Angeles on July 20?	Jul 20, 2026, 10:12 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Highest temperature in NYC on July 20?	Jul 20, 2026, 10:12 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Who will win in the upcoming esports event Frites Esports Club vs Senshi Esports scheduled for July 21, 2026 at 6:00 PM UTC?	Jul 20, 2026, 10:12 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Will TEC Esports win Map 2 vs All Gamers?	Jul 20, 2026, 10:12 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Who will win in the upcoming basketball event Minnesota vs Seattle scheduled for July 22, 2026 at 7:00 PM UTC?	Jul 20, 2026, 10:12 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Highest temperature in Chicago on July 20?	Jul 20, 2026, 10:12 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Who will win in the upcoming esports event NIP vs 100 Thieves scheduled for July 22, 2026 at 1:00 PM UTC?	Jul 20, 2026, 10:12 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Who will win in the upcoming tennis event Tilde Jagare vs Lisa Peer scheduled for July 19, 2026 at 12:00 PM UTC?	Jul 20, 2026, 10:12 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 20?	Jul 20, 2026, 10:12 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Will any run be scored in the 1st inning of DET vs CHC?	Jul 20, 2026, 10:12 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
US GDP growth in Q2 2026	Jul 20, 2026, 10:12 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Who will win in the upcoming basketball event Dallas vs Portland scheduled for July 23, 2026 at 2:00 AM UTC?	Jul 20, 2026, 10:12 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Arizona Governor Election Winner	Jul 20, 2026, 10:12 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 20?	Jul 20, 2026, 10:12 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Highest temperature in Chicago on July 20?	Jul 20, 2026, 10:12 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
F1 Constructors Champion	Jul 20, 2026, 10:12 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Who will win in the upcoming basketball event Chicago vs New York scheduled for July 22, 2026 at 11:00 PM UTC?	Jul 20, 2026, 10:12 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Massachusetts Senate Democratic Primary Winner	Jul 20, 2026, 10:12 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Highest temperature in Chicago on July 20?	Jul 20, 2026, 10:12 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Nevada Governor Election Winner	Jul 20, 2026, 10:12 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
AFC East Division Winner	Jul 20, 2026, 10:12 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Pro Football Champion 2027	Jul 20, 2026, 10:12 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Who will win in the upcoming esports event BET-M 33 vs CYBERSHOKE Esports scheduled for July 21, 2026 at 10:30 AM UTC?	Jul 20, 2026, 10:12 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
LeBron James Next Team	Jul 20, 2026, 2:37 AM UTC	Another contract from the event was already open
Ballon d'Or 2026 Winner	Jul 20, 2026, 2:37 AM UTC	Another contract from the event was already open
LeBron James Next Team	Jul 20, 2026, 2:37 AM UTC	Another contract from the event was already open
Fed Rate Hike in 2026?	Jul 20, 2026, 2:37 AM UTC	Another contract from the event was already open
Who will win in the upcoming tennis event Tegar Abdi Satrio WIBOWO vs Gunawan Trismuwantara scheduled for July 20, 2026 at 1:00 AM UTC?	Jul 20, 2026, 2:37 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Will 3v Team win Game 1 vs NCG Esports?	Jul 20, 2026, 2:37 AM UTC	Another contract from the event was already open
Who will win in the upcoming basketball event Memphis Grizzlies vs Golden State Warriors scheduled for July 20, 2026 at 1:00 AM UTC?	Jul 20, 2026, 2:37 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Highest temperature in Chicago on July 20?	Jul 20, 2026, 2:37 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Who will win in the upcoming tennis event Mila Bastianelli vs Hanna Bougouffa scheduled for July 19, 2026 at 3:00 PM UTC?	Jul 20, 2026, 2:37 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Who will win in the upcoming mma event Ludovit Klein vs Tofiq Musayev scheduled for August 1, 2026 at 3:40 PM UTC?	Jul 20, 2026, 2:37 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Who will win in the upcoming esports event Infinite vs Team Nemesis scheduled for July 22, 2026 at 1:00 PM UTC?	Jul 20, 2026, 2:37 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 20?	Jul 20, 2026, 2:37 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Will 3v Team win Game 2 vs NCG Esports?	Jul 20, 2026, 2:37 AM UTC	Another contract from the event was already open
Who will win in the upcoming tennis event Nagi Hanatani vs Sophia Bergqvist scheduled for July 19, 2026 at 10:30 AM UTC?	Jul 20, 2026, 2:37 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
CPI YoY in July	Jul 20, 2026, 2:37 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Who will win in the upcoming tennis event Hayden Jones vs Stefan Bianchet scheduled for July 20, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC?	Jul 20, 2026, 2:37 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
National League MVP	Jul 20, 2026, 2:37 AM UTC	Another contract from the event was already open
Who will win in the upcoming tennis event Ethan Domingo vs Zaharije-Zak Talic scheduled for July 20, 2026 at 1:00 AM UTC?	Jul 20, 2026, 2:37 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Will any run be scored in the 1st inning of DET vs CHC?	Jul 20, 2026, 2:37 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Who will win in the upcoming baseball event New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers scheduled for July 22, 2026 at 6:10 PM UTC?	Jul 20, 2026, 2:37 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Highest temperature in Los Angeles on July 20?	Jul 20, 2026, 2:37 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Ballon d'Or 2026 Winner	Jul 20, 2026, 2:37 AM UTC	Another contract from the event was already open
Who will win in the upcoming tennis event Zane Stevens vs Cody Atkinson scheduled for July 20, 2026 at 2:30 AM UTC?	Jul 20, 2026, 2:37 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Who will win in the upcoming tennis event Lachlan McFadzean vs Elijah Cham scheduled for July 20, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC?	Jul 20, 2026, 2:37 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
National League MVP	Jul 20, 2026, 2:37 AM UTC	Another contract from the event was already open
Who will win in the upcoming tennis event Rose Marie Nijkamp vs Nikoline Gullacksen scheduled for July 19, 2026 at 12:00 PM UTC?	Jul 20, 2026, 2:37 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Highest temperature in Los Angeles on July 20?	Jul 20, 2026, 2:37 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Who will win in the upcoming tennis event Kabir Hans vs Stephane Pierre-Jo Kamendje scheduled for July 20, 2026 at 1:00 AM UTC?	Jul 20, 2026, 2:37 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Who will win in the upcoming basketball event Minnesota vs Seattle scheduled for July 22, 2026 at 7:00 PM UTC?	Jul 20, 2026, 2:37 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Will any run be scored in the 1st inning of PIT vs NYY?	Jul 20, 2026, 2:37 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Highest temperature in NYC on July 20?	Jul 20, 2026, 2:37 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Will any run be scored in the 1st inning of NYM vs MIL?	Jul 20, 2026, 2:37 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
TIME Person of the Year 2026	Jul 20, 2026, 2:37 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
F1 Constructors Champion	Jul 20, 2026, 2:37 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
MLB Worst Regular Season Record	Jul 20, 2026, 2:37 AM UTC	Another contract from the event was already open
American League Cy Young Award	Jul 20, 2026, 2:37 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 20?	Jul 20, 2026, 2:37 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Highest temperature in Chicago on July 20?	Jul 20, 2026, 2:37 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Highest temperature in Chicago on July 20?	Jul 20, 2026, 2:37 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Who will win in the upcoming tennis event Matthew Shearer vs Finn Emslie-Robson scheduled for July 20, 2026 at 2:30 AM UTC?	Jul 20, 2026, 2:37 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Who will win in the upcoming tennis event Alec Gaudin vs Harrison Satara scheduled for July 20, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC?	Jul 20, 2026, 2:37 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Who will win in the upcoming tennis event Kuma Ito vs Nikita Volonski scheduled for July 20, 2026 at 2:30 AM UTC?	Jul 20, 2026, 2:37 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Who will win in the upcoming tennis event Eric Tripathi vs Adrian Arcon scheduled for July 20, 2026 at 2:30 AM UTC?	Jul 20, 2026, 2:37 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Big Brother S28: Week 2 Elimination	Jul 20, 2026, 2:37 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
3M Open End of Round 1 Leader	Jul 20, 2026, 2:37 AM UTC	The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached
Will the Detroit Tigers cover 1.5 vs the Los Angeles Angels in Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels?	Jul 19, 2026, 10:47 PM UTC	Another contract from the event was already open
Will the Washington Nationals cover -1.5 vs the Athletics in Washington Nationals vs Athletics?	Jul 19, 2026, 10:47 PM UTC	Another contract from the event was already open
Who will win in the upcoming baseball event St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks scheduled for July 19, 2026 at 8:10 PM UTC?	Jul 19, 2026, 10:47 PM UTC	Another contract from the event was already open
Will the San Francisco Giants cover 1.5 vs the Seattle Mariners in San Francisco Giants vs Seattle Mariners?	Jul 19, 2026, 10:47 PM UTC	Another contract from the event was already open
Will the Detroit Tigers cover -1.5 vs the Los Angeles Angels in Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels?	Jul 19, 2026, 10:47 PM UTC	Another contract from the event was already open
Will the St. Louis Cardinals cover 1.5 vs the Arizona Diamondbacks in St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks?	Jul 19, 2026, 10:47 PM UTC	Another contract from the event was already open
LeBron James Next Team	Jul 19, 2026, 10:47 PM UTC	Another contract from the event was already open
2026 NBA Summer League Champion	Jul 19, 2026, 10:47 PM UTC	Another contract from the event was already open

Strategy lab

Parallel comparison ledgers

These strategies run beside the featured model over the same candidates, prices, and fees, each with its own independent $1,000 paper ledger. The random-entry control selects candidates by a reproducible coin flip, so any strategy's edge must show up as outperformance against it. Pre-registered evaluation: at 100 closed positions or 8 weeks after activation (whichever comes first), a strategy passes only if it beats the control over the same period and is positive after fees.

Strategy version `2026-07-21.momentum-paper.v4`

Enters US markets from the published Largest Verified Moves list, sized $1–$25 by Evidence Score at the live ask. Positions close at official settlement, at the seven-day exit, or between pulses via the exit sentinel; a market can re-qualify after its position completes.

Simulated value: $898.19
Paper cash: $733.38
Realized paper gain/loss: −$62.68
Open positions: 17
Completed positions: 151
Last evaluated: Jul 30, 2026, 3:10 PM UTC

No paper position

National League MVP

Paper loss−$3.91

The model holds No at 46.4¢ until Aug 4, 2026, 10:17 AM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $15.00
Entry ask: 46.4¢
Entry fee: $0.39
Entry cost: $14.77
Liquidation value: $10.86
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.36
Observed movement: -10.6 pp
Opened: Jul 28, 2026, 10:17 AM UTC
Position age: 2d 4h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 3:10 PM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 4, 2026, 10:17 AM UTC

Evidence Score80/100

Persistence: 23/35
Quote quality: 24/25
Movement magnitude: 20/20
Market activity: 3/10
Source freshness: 10/10

No paper position

Bank of Israel Decision in September?

Paper loss−$0.66

The model holds No at 98¢ until Aug 5, 2026, 10:17 AM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $15.00
Entry ask: 98¢
Entry fee: $0.01
Entry cost: $14.99
Liquidation value: $14.33
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.04
Observed movement: -12.5 pp
Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 10:17 AM UTC
Position age: 1d 4h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 3:10 PM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 5, 2026, 10:17 AM UTC

Evidence Score82/100

Persistence: 29/35
Quote quality: 20/25
Movement magnitude: 20/20
Market activity: 3/10
Source freshness: 10/10

No paper position

Prime Minister of Israel After the Next Election

Paper loss−$0.18

The model holds No at 98¢ until Aug 3, 2026, 10:17 AM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $15.00
Entry ask: 98¢
Entry fee: $0.01
Entry cost: $14.99
Liquidation value: $14.81
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.02
Observed movement: -10 pp
Opened: Jul 27, 2026, 10:17 AM UTC
Position age: 3d 4h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 3:10 PM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 3, 2026, 10:17 AM UTC

Evidence Score86/100

Persistence: 29/35
Quote quality: 23/25
Movement magnitude: 20/20
Market activity: 4/10
Source freshness: 10/10

No paper position

MLB Postseason Teams

Paper loss−$2.48

The model holds No at 57¢ until Aug 3, 2026, 10:17 AM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $10.00
Entry ask: 57¢
Entry fee: $0.21
Entry cost: $10.00
Liquidation value: $7.52
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.21
Observed movement: -10.5 pp
Opened: Jul 27, 2026, 10:17 AM UTC
Position age: 3d 4h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 3:10 PM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 3, 2026, 10:17 AM UTC

Evidence Score76/100

Persistence: 26/35
Quote quality: 15/25
Movement magnitude: 20/20
Market activity: 5/10
Source freshness: 10/10

No paper position

Who Will Be Announced Out of Trump Admin in 2026?

Paper loss−$2.05

The model holds No at 73¢ until Aug 3, 2026, 2:19 PM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $10.00
Entry ask: 73¢
Entry fee: $0.13
Entry cost: $10.00
Liquidation value: $7.95
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.16
Observed movement: -17.5 pp
Opened: Jul 27, 2026, 2:19 PM UTC
Position age: 3d 0h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 3:10 PM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 3, 2026, 2:19 PM UTC

Evidence Score73/100

Persistence: 21/35
Quote quality: 18/25
Movement magnitude: 20/20
Market activity: 4/10
Source freshness: 10/10

No paper position

Which Company Has #1 AI Model end of 2026?

Paper loss−$0.17

The model holds No at 99¢ until Aug 6, 2026, 10:18 AM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $15.00
Entry ask: 99¢
Entry fee: $0.01
Entry cost: $15.00
Liquidation value: $14.83
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.01
Observed movement: -9 pp
Opened: Jul 30, 2026, 10:18 AM UTC
Position age: 4h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 3:10 PM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 6, 2026, 10:18 AM UTC

Evidence Score85/100

Persistence: 29/35
Quote quality: 23/25
Movement magnitude: 18/20
Market activity: 5/10
Source freshness: 10/10

No paper position

NASCAR Cup Series Champion

Paper loss−$0.35

The model holds No at 87¢ until Aug 2, 2026, 2:12 PM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $10.00
Entry ask: 87¢
Entry fee: $0.06
Entry cost: $9.63
Liquidation value: $9.28
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.07
Observed movement: -9.5 pp
Opened: Jul 26, 2026, 2:12 PM UTC
Position age: 4d 0h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 3:10 PM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 2, 2026, 2:12 PM UTC

Evidence Score77/100

Persistence: 23/35
Quote quality: 23/25
Movement magnitude: 19/20
Market activity: 2/10
Source freshness: 10/10

No paper position

National League Rookie of the Year

Paper loss−$3.27

The model holds No at 51.6¢ until Jul 31, 2026, 2:14 PM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $15.00
Entry ask: 51.6¢
Entry fee: $0.35
Entry cost: $14.80
Liquidation value: $11.53
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.34
Observed movement: -8.6 pp
Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 2:14 PM UTC
Position age: 6d 0h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 3:10 PM UTC
Scheduled exit: Jul 31, 2026, 2:14 PM UTC

Evidence Score89/100

Persistence: 35/35
Quote quality: 24/25
Movement magnitude: 17/20
Market activity: 3/10
Source freshness: 10/10

Yes paper position

Kash Patel Announced Out as FBI Director?

Paper loss−$5.39

The model holds Yes at 53¢ until Aug 1, 2026, 2:13 PM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $10.00
Entry ask: 53¢
Entry fee: $0.23
Entry cost: $10.00
Liquidation value: $4.61
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.18
Observed movement: +11 pp
Opened: Jul 25, 2026, 2:13 PM UTC
Position age: 5d 0h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 3:10 PM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 1, 2026, 2:13 PM UTC

Evidence Score75/100

Persistence: 18/35
Quote quality: 23/25
Movement magnitude: 20/20
Market activity: 4/10
Source freshness: 10/10

Yes paper position

NBA Eastern Conference Champion

Paper loss−$0.35

The model holds Yes at 24¢ until Jul 31, 2026, 6:13 PM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $10.00
Entry ask: 24¢
Entry fee: $0.37
Entry cost: $10.00
Liquidation value: $9.65
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.38
Observed movement: +11.5 pp
Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 6:13 PM UTC
Position age: 5d 20h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 3:10 PM UTC
Scheduled exit: Jul 31, 2026, 6:13 PM UTC

Evidence Score76/100

Persistence: 18/35
Quote quality: 20/25
Movement magnitude: 20/20
Market activity: 8/10
Source freshness: 10/10

No paper position

Elon Musk Net Worth on July 31?

Paper gain+$0.24

The model holds No at 94¢ until Jul 31, 2026, 6:13 PM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $15.00
Entry ask: 94¢
Entry fee: $0.04
Entry cost: $15.00
Liquidation value: $15.24
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.03
Observed movement: -13.5 pp
Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 6:13 PM UTC
Position age: 5d 20h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 3:10 PM UTC
Scheduled exit: Jul 31, 2026, 6:13 PM UTC

Evidence Score88/100

Persistence: 35/35
Quote quality: 20/25
Movement magnitude: 20/20
Market activity: 3/10
Source freshness: 10/10

Yes paper position

Michigan Senate Democratic Primary Winner

Paper loss−$8.23

The model holds Yes at 34¢ until Jul 31, 2026, 10:15 PM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $10.00
Entry ask: 34¢
Entry fee: $0.31
Entry cost: $9.83
Liquidation value: $1.60
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.08
Observed movement: +11 pp
Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 10:15 PM UTC
Position age: 5d 16h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 3:10 PM UTC
Scheduled exit: Jul 31, 2026, 10:15 PM UTC

Evidence Score78/100

Persistence: 23/35
Quote quality: 23/25
Movement magnitude: 20/20
Market activity: 2/10
Source freshness: 10/10

No paper position

Bitcoin price at the end of 2026?

Paper loss−$0.25

The model holds No at 96¢ until Aug 1, 2026, 2:13 PM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $10.00
Entry ask: 96¢
Entry fee: $0.02
Entry cost: $9.99
Liquidation value: $9.74
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.03
Observed movement: -11 pp
Opened: Jul 25, 2026, 2:13 PM UTC
Position age: 5d 0h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 3:10 PM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 1, 2026, 2:13 PM UTC

Evidence Score74/100

Persistence: 18/35
Quote quality: 23/25
Movement magnitude: 20/20
Market activity: 3/10
Source freshness: 10/10

Yes paper position

American League Cy Young Award

Paper loss−$2.09

The model holds Yes at 61.3¢ until Aug 1, 2026, 10:14 AM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $15.00
Entry ask: 61.3¢
Entry fee: $0.28
Entry cost: $14.99
Liquidation value: $12.90
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.30
Observed movement: +20.4 pp
Opened: Jul 25, 2026, 10:14 AM UTC
Position age: 5d 4h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 3:10 PM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 1, 2026, 10:14 AM UTC

Evidence Score81/100

Persistence: 23/35
Quote quality: 25/25
Movement magnitude: 20/20
Market activity: 3/10
Source freshness: 10/10

Robert Valentin paper position

Dusko Todorovic vs. Robert Valentin

Paper loss−$0.54

The model holds Robert Valentin at 61¢ until Jul 31, 2026, 2:14 PM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $10.00
Entry ask: 61¢
Entry fee: $0.19
Entry cost: $9.95
Liquidation value: $9.41
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.19
Observed movement: -10 pp
Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 2:14 PM UTC
Position age: 6d 0h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 3:10 PM UTC
Scheduled exit: Jul 31, 2026, 2:14 PM UTC

Evidence Score79/100

Persistence: 23/35
Quote quality: 23/25
Movement magnitude: 20/20
Market activity: 3/10
Source freshness: 10/10

Yes paper position

Pro Football Comeback Player of the Year

Paper loss−$9.43

The model holds Yes at 49¢ until Jul 31, 2026, 2:14 PM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $10.00
Entry ask: 49¢
Entry fee: $0.25
Entry cost: $10.00
Liquidation value: $0.57
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.03
Observed movement: +42 pp
Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 2:14 PM UTC
Position age: 6d 0h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 3:10 PM UTC
Scheduled exit: Jul 31, 2026, 2:14 PM UTC

Evidence Score75/100

Persistence: 18/35
Quote quality: 23/25
Movement magnitude: 20/20
Market activity: 4/10
Source freshness: 10/10

No paper position

CPI YoY in July

Paper loss−$0.02

The model holds No at 98¢ until Jul 30, 2026, 10:15 PM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $10.00
Entry ask: 98¢
Entry fee: $0.01
Entry cost: $10.00
Liquidation value: $9.98
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.01
Observed movement: -8 pp
Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 10:15 PM UTC
Position age: 6d 16h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 3:10 PM UTC
Scheduled exit: Jul 30, 2026, 10:15 PM UTC

Evidence Score74/100

Persistence: 21/35
Quote quality: 23/25
Movement magnitude: 16/20
Market activity: 4/10
Source freshness: 10/10

Strategy version `2026-07-21.random-entry-control.v2`

The scientific control: draws from the same candidates by a reproducible coin flip with fixed $5 sizing and the same lifecycle, so any momentum edge has to show up as outperformance against it.

Simulated value: $957.65
Paper cash: $881.52
Realized paper gain/loss: −$25.29
Open positions: 19
Completed positions: 124
Last evaluated: Jul 30, 2026, 3:10 PM UTC

Yes paper position

NBA MVP

Paper loss−$1.08

The model holds Yes at 47¢ until Aug 6, 2026, 10:18 AM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 47¢
Entry fee: $0.13
Entry cost: $5.00
Liquidation value: $3.92
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.12
Observed movement: +12 pp
Opened: Jul 30, 2026, 10:18 AM UTC
Position age: 4h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 3:10 PM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 6, 2026, 10:18 AM UTC

Evidence Score74/100

Persistence: 18/35
Quote quality: 23/25
Movement magnitude: 20/20
Market activity: 3/10
Source freshness: 10/10

Yes paper position

Strategy version `2026-07-21.momentum-guarded.v2`

Momentum v4's rules plus one guard: it skips any candidate whose live ask is above 85 cents, testing whether avoiding expensive entries changes the outcome.

Simulated value: $886.29
Paper cash: $747.35
Realized paper gain/loss: −$68.34
Open positions: 17
Completed positions: 155
Last evaluated: Jul 30, 2026, 3:10 PM UTC

No paper position

Fed Rate Hike in 2026?

Paper gain+$0.90

The model holds No at 30¢ until Aug 5, 2026, 10:19 PM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $10.00
Entry ask: 30¢
Entry fee: $0.34
Entry cost: $10.00
Liquidation value: $10.90
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.37
Observed movement: -8.5 pp
Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 10:19 PM UTC
Position age: 16h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 3:10 PM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 5, 2026, 10:19 PM UTC

Evidence Score75/100

Persistence: 18/35
Quote quality: 23/25
Movement magnitude: 17/20
Market activity: 7/10
Source freshness: 10/10

Yes paper position

NBA MVP

Global copy lab

Trader-copy comparison ledgers

These ledgers run on the Global Polymarket venue (its own fee model; spread is the only simulated cost) and copy tracked trader books: one follows the most profitable recent wallets, the other copies randomly selected active wallets with identical mechanics, so profitability-selection is the only difference. Wallets are never identified. Pre-registered evaluation: at 100 closed positions or 8 weeks after activation, the copy strategy passes only if it beats the random-copy control over the same period and is positive after costs.

Strategy version `2026-07-21.global-copy-top.v2`

Copies newly appeared positions from the 20 most profitable recently active Global Polymarket wallets at $5 per copy, and exits when the copied trader exits, at official resolution, or after 30 days. Wallets are never identified.

Simulated value: $906.75
Paper cash: $843.77
Realized paper gain/loss: −$86.24
Open positions: 14
Completed positions: 84
Last evaluated: Jul 30, 2026, 3:10 PM UTC

No paper position

Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?

Paper loss−$0.04

The model holds No at 96.8¢ until Aug 21, 2026, 6:18 PM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 96.8¢
Entry fee: $0.00
Entry cost: $4.99
Liquidation value: $4.95
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.00
Observed movement: +0 pp
Opened: Jul 22, 2026, 6:18 PM UTC
Position age: 7d 20h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 3:11 PM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 21, 2026, 6:18 PM UTC

No paper position

Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 National League MVP Award?

Paper gain+$3.00

The model holds No at 25¢ until Aug 21, 2026, 6:18 PM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 25¢
Entry fee: $0.00
Entry cost: $5.00
Liquidation value: $8.00
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.00
Observed movement: +0 pp
Opened: Jul 22, 2026, 6:18 PM UTC
Position age: 7d 20h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 3:11 PM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 21, 2026, 6:18 PM UTC

Yes paper position

Will James Cook III finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most rushing touchdowns?

Paper loss−$1.36

The model holds Yes at 11¢ until Aug 22, 2026, 10:14 AM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 11¢
Entry fee: $0.00
Entry cost: $5.00
Liquidation value: $3.64
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.00
Observed movement: +0 pp
Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 10:14 AM UTC
Position age: 7d 4h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 3:11 PM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 22, 2026, 10:14 AM UTC

Yes paper position

Will the season series between the Cardinals and Seahawks end in a tie during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?

Paper loss−$0.36

The model holds Yes at 28¢ until Aug 22, 2026, 10:14 AM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 28¢
Entry fee: $0.00
Entry cost: $5.00
Liquidation value: $4.64
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.00
Observed movement: +0 pp
Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 10:14 AM UTC
Position age: 7d 4h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 3:11 PM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 22, 2026, 10:14 AM UTC

Yes paper position

Will Matthew Stafford finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most passing touchdowns?

Paper loss−$0.77

The model holds Yes at 13¢ until Aug 22, 2026, 10:14 AM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 13¢
Entry fee: $0.00
Entry cost: $5.00
Liquidation value: $4.23
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.00
Observed movement: +0 pp
Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 10:14 AM UTC
Position age: 7d 4h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 3:11 PM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 22, 2026, 10:14 AM UTC

Yes paper position

Will the Bills win the season series against the Dolphins during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?

Paper gain+$0.38

The model holds Yes at 53¢ until Aug 22, 2026, 2:14 PM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 53¢
Entry fee: $0.00
Entry cost: $5.00
Liquidation value: $5.38
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.00
Observed movement: +0 pp
Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 2:14 PM UTC
Position age: 7d 0h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 3:11 PM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 22, 2026, 2:14 PM UTC

Yes paper position

Will the season series between the Cardinals and Rams end in a tie during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?

Paper loss−$4.85

The model holds Yes at 34¢ until Aug 22, 2026, 2:14 PM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 34¢
Entry fee: $0.00
Entry cost: $5.00
Liquidation value: $0.15
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.00
Observed movement: +0 pp
Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 2:14 PM UTC
Position age: 7d 0h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 3:11 PM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 22, 2026, 2:14 PM UTC

Yes paper position

Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?

Paper loss−$1.59

The model holds Yes at 44¢ until Aug 22, 2026, 6:12 PM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 44¢
Entry fee: $0.00
Entry cost: $5.00
Liquidation value: $3.41
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.00
Observed movement: +0 pp
Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 6:12 PM UTC
Position age: 6d 20h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 3:11 PM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 22, 2026, 6:12 PM UTC

Yes paper position

Will Josh Jacobs finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most rushing touchdowns?

Paper loss−$0.91

The model holds Yes at 11¢ until Aug 22, 2026, 6:12 PM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 11¢
Entry fee: $0.00
Entry cost: $5.00
Liquidation value: $4.09
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.00
Observed movement: +0 pp
Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 6:12 PM UTC
Position age: 6d 20h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 3:11 PM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 22, 2026, 6:12 PM UTC

No paper position

Will the Packers win the season series against the Lions during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?

Paper loss−$0.31

The model holds No at 80¢ until Aug 22, 2026, 10:15 PM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 80¢
Entry fee: $0.00
Entry cost: $5.00
Liquidation value: $4.69
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.00
Observed movement: +0 pp
Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 10:15 PM UTC
Position age: 6d 16h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 3:11 PM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 22, 2026, 10:15 PM UTC

Texas Rangers paper position

Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Paper loss−$0.58

The model holds Texas Rangers at 43¢ until Aug 29, 2026, 10:18 AM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 43¢
Entry fee: $0.00
Entry cost: $5.00
Liquidation value: $4.42
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.00
Observed movement: +0 pp
Opened: Jul 30, 2026, 10:18 AM UTC
Position age: 4h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 3:11 PM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 29, 2026, 10:18 AM UTC

Under paper position

New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5

Paper gain+$0.17

The model holds Under at 57¢ until Aug 29, 2026, 10:18 AM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 57¢
Entry fee: $0.00
Entry cost: $5.00
Liquidation value: $5.17
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.00
Observed movement: +0 pp
Opened: Jul 30, 2026, 10:18 AM UTC
Position age: 4h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 3:11 PM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 29, 2026, 10:18 AM UTC

St. Louis Cardinals paper position

Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Paper loss−$0.10

The model holds St. Louis Cardinals at 53¢ until Aug 29, 2026, 10:18 AM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 53¢
Entry fee: $0.00
Entry cost: $5.00
Liquidation value: $4.90
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.00
Observed movement: +0 pp
Opened: Jul 30, 2026, 10:18 AM UTC
Position age: 4h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 3:11 PM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 29, 2026, 10:18 AM UTC

Under paper position

New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5

Paper gain+$0.31

The model holds Under at 48¢ until Aug 29, 2026, 10:18 AM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 48¢
Entry fee: $0.00
Entry cost: $5.00
Liquidation value: $5.31
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.00
Observed movement: +0 pp
Opened: Jul 30, 2026, 10:18 AM UTC
Position age: 4h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 3:11 PM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 29, 2026, 10:18 AM UTC

Strategy version `2026-07-21.global-copy-random.v2`

The copy lab's control: identical copy mechanics over a reproducible random draw of active Global wallets, so selecting traders by profitability is the only difference being tested.

Simulated value: $954.85
Paper cash: $915.02
Realized paper gain/loss: −$39.98
Open positions: 9
Completed positions: 90
Last evaluated: Jul 30, 2026, 3:10 PM UTC

Yes paper position

Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Paper loss−$2.00

The model holds Yes at 0.5¢ until Aug 28, 2026, 10:17 AM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 0.5¢
Entry fee: $0.00
Entry cost: $5.00
Liquidation value: $3.00
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.00
Observed movement: +0 pp
Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 10:17 AM UTC
Position age: 1d 4h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 3:11 PM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 28, 2026, 10:17 AM UTC

Yes paper position

Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Paper loss−$1.00

The model holds Yes at 0.5¢ until Aug 29, 2026, 10:18 AM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Global favorites lab

Favorite-price comparison ledgers

These ledgers test the documented favorite–longshot bias on the Global Polymarket venue (its own fee model; spread is the only simulated cost). One buys the favorite side priced 93–98¢ in markets closing within seven days; the control buys a reproducibly random side of the identical market pool with identical mechanics, so favorite-side selection is the only difference. Pre-registered evaluation: at 100 closed positions or 8 weeks after activation, the favorites strategy passes only if it beats the random-side control over the same period and is positive after costs.

Strategy version `2026-07-25.global-favorites.v1`

Tests the documented favorite–longshot bias: buys the favorite side priced 93–98¢ in Global markets closing within seven days, $5 per position, and holds to official resolution (30-day backstop).

Simulated value: $999.64
Paper cash: $897.65
Realized paper gain/loss: −$2.43
Open positions: 20
Completed positions: 17
Last evaluated: Jul 30, 2026, 3:10 PM UTC

No paper position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

Paper gain+$0.27

The model holds No at 94¢ until Aug 24, 2026, 6:13 PM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 94¢
Entry fee: $0.00
Entry cost: $4.99
Liquidation value: $5.26
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.00
Observed movement: +0 pp
Opened: Jul 25, 2026, 6:13 PM UTC
Position age: 4d 20h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 3:11 PM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 24, 2026, 6:13 PM UTC

No paper position

Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in July?

Paper gain+$0.10

The model holds No at 97.9¢ until Aug 24, 2026, 6:13 PM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 97.9¢
Entry fee: $0.00
Entry cost: $4.99
Liquidation value: $5.09
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.00
Observed movement: +0 pp
Opened: Jul 25, 2026, 6:13 PM UTC
Position age: 4d 20h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 3:11 PM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 24, 2026, 6:13 PM UTC

No paper position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?

Paper gain+$0.28

The model holds No at 94.3¢ until Aug 24, 2026, 6:13 PM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 94.3¢
Entry fee: $0.00
Entry cost: $5.00
Liquidation value: $5.28
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.00
Observed movement: +0 pp
Opened: Jul 25, 2026, 6:13 PM UTC
Position age: 4d 20h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 3:11 PM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 24, 2026, 6:13 PM UTC

No paper position

Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?

Paper gain+$0.02

The model holds No at 98¢ until Aug 24, 2026, 6:13 PM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 98¢
Entry fee: $0.00
Entry cost: $5.00
Liquidation value: $5.02
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.00
Observed movement: +0 pp
Opened: Jul 25, 2026, 6:13 PM UTC
Position age: 4d 20h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 3:11 PM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 24, 2026, 6:13 PM UTC

No paper position

Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?

Paper gain+$0.06

The model holds No at 97¢ until Aug 24, 2026, 6:13 PM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 97¢
Entry fee: $0.00
Entry cost: $5.00
Liquidation value: $5.06
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.00
Observed movement: +0 pp
Opened: Jul 25, 2026, 6:13 PM UTC
Position age: 4d 20h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 3:11 PM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 24, 2026, 6:13 PM UTC

No paper position

Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?

Paper gain+$0.27

The model holds No at 94.5¢ until Aug 24, 2026, 6:13 PM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 94.5¢
Entry fee: $0.00
Entry cost: $5.00
Liquidation value: $5.27
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.00
Observed movement: +0 pp
Opened: Jul 25, 2026, 6:13 PM UTC
Position age: 4d 20h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 3:11 PM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 24, 2026, 6:13 PM UTC

No paper position

Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?

Paper gain+$0.08

The model holds No at 97¢ until Aug 24, 2026, 6:13 PM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 97¢
Entry fee: $0.00
Entry cost: $5.00
Liquidation value: $5.08
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.00
Observed movement: +0 pp
Opened: Jul 25, 2026, 6:13 PM UTC
Position age: 4d 20h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 3:11 PM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 24, 2026, 6:13 PM UTC

No paper position

Iran leadership change by July 31?

Paper gain+$0.09

The model holds No at 97.9¢ until Aug 24, 2026, 6:13 PM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 97.9¢
Entry fee: $0.00
Entry cost: $4.99
Liquidation value: $5.08
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.00
Observed movement: +0 pp
Opened: Jul 25, 2026, 6:13 PM UTC
Position age: 4d 20h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 3:11 PM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 24, 2026, 6:13 PM UTC

No paper position

Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?

Paper gain+$0.17

The model holds No at 96.3¢ until Aug 24, 2026, 6:13 PM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 96.3¢
Entry fee: $0.00
Entry cost: $5.00
Liquidation value: $5.17
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.00
Observed movement: +0 pp
Opened: Jul 25, 2026, 6:13 PM UTC
Position age: 4d 20h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 3:11 PM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 24, 2026, 6:13 PM UTC

No paper position

Israel military action against Yemen by July 31?

Paper gain+$0.20

The model holds No at 94¢ until Aug 24, 2026, 6:13 PM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 94¢
Entry fee: $0.00
Entry cost: $4.99
Liquidation value: $5.19
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.00
Observed movement: +0 pp
Opened: Jul 25, 2026, 6:13 PM UTC
Position age: 4d 20h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 3:11 PM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 24, 2026, 6:13 PM UTC

No paper position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July?

Paper gain+$0.09

The model holds No at 97.8¢ until Aug 24, 2026, 6:13 PM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 97.8¢
Entry fee: $0.00
Entry cost: $5.00
Liquidation value: $5.09
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.00
Observed movement: +0 pp
Opened: Jul 25, 2026, 6:13 PM UTC
Position age: 4d 20h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 3:11 PM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 24, 2026, 6:13 PM UTC

No paper position

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?

Paper gain+$0.11

The model holds No at 97.4¢ until Aug 26, 2026, 10:17 AM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 97.4¢
Entry fee: $0.00
Entry cost: $5.00
Liquidation value: $5.11
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.00
Observed movement: +0 pp
Opened: Jul 27, 2026, 10:17 AM UTC
Position age: 3d 4h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 3:11 PM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 26, 2026, 10:17 AM UTC

No paper position

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?

Paper gain+$0.09

The model holds No at 97.5¢ until Aug 26, 2026, 10:17 AM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 97.5¢
Entry fee: $0.00
Entry cost: $4.99
Liquidation value: $5.08
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.00
Observed movement: +0 pp
Opened: Jul 27, 2026, 10:17 AM UTC
Position age: 3d 4h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 3:11 PM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 26, 2026, 10:17 AM UTC

No paper position

Andrew Tate released from custody by July 31, 2026?

Paper gain+$0.11

The model holds No at 97.7¢ until Aug 26, 2026, 10:17 AM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 97.7¢
Entry fee: $0.00
Entry cost: $4.99
Liquidation value: $5.10
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.00
Observed movement: +0 pp
Opened: Jul 27, 2026, 10:17 AM UTC
Position age: 3d 4h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 3:11 PM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 26, 2026, 10:17 AM UTC

No paper position

Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 31?

Paper gain+$0.05

The model holds No at 97.9¢ until Aug 26, 2026, 6:18 PM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 97.9¢
Entry fee: $0.00
Entry cost: $4.99
Liquidation value: $5.04
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.00
Observed movement: +0 pp
Opened: Jul 27, 2026, 6:18 PM UTC
Position age: 2d 20h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 3:11 PM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 26, 2026, 6:18 PM UTC

No paper position

Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?

Paper gain+$0.02

The model holds No at 97.5¢ until Aug 27, 2026, 6:17 PM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 97.5¢
Entry fee: $0.00
Entry cost: $4.99
Liquidation value: $5.01
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.00
Observed movement: +0 pp
Opened: Jul 28, 2026, 6:17 PM UTC
Position age: 1d 20h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 3:11 PM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 27, 2026, 6:17 PM UTC

No paper position

Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in July?

Paper gain+$0.02

The model holds No at 98¢ until Aug 28, 2026, 10:19 PM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 98¢
Entry fee: $0.00
Entry cost: $5.00
Liquidation value: $5.02
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.00
Observed movement: +0 pp
Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 10:19 PM UTC
Position age: 16h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 3:11 PM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 28, 2026, 10:19 PM UTC

No paper position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?

Paper gain+$0.07

The model holds No at 98¢ until Aug 28, 2026, 10:19 PM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 98¢
Entry fee: $0.00
Entry cost: $5.00
Liquidation value: $5.07
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.00
Observed movement: +0 pp
Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 10:19 PM UTC
Position age: 16h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 3:11 PM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 28, 2026, 10:19 PM UTC

No paper position

Will Ethereum reach $2,200 July 27-August 2?

Paper loss−$0.04

The model holds No at 98¢ until Aug 29, 2026, 10:18 AM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 98¢
Entry fee: $0.00
Entry cost: $5.00
Liquidation value: $4.96
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.00
Observed movement: +0 pp
Opened: Jul 30, 2026, 10:18 AM UTC
Position age: 4h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 3:11 PM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 29, 2026, 10:18 AM UTC

No paper position

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?

Paper gain+$0.01

The model holds No at 98¢ until Aug 29, 2026, 10:18 AM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 98¢
Entry fee: $0.00
Entry cost: $5.00
Liquidation value: $5.01
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.00
Observed movement: +0 pp
Opened: Jul 30, 2026, 10:18 AM UTC
Position age: 4h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 3:11 PM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 29, 2026, 10:18 AM UTC

Strategy version `2026-07-25.global-favorites-random.v1`

The favorites lab's control: buys a reproducibly random side of the same eligible markets with identical mechanics, so favorite-side selection is the only difference being tested.

Simulated value: $944.58
Paper cash: $866.91
Realized paper gain/loss: −$33.18
Open positions: 20
Completed positions: 15
Last evaluated: Jul 30, 2026, 3:10 PM UTC

No paper position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in July?

Paper gain+$0.33

The model holds No at 93¢ until Aug 24, 2026, 6:13 PM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 93¢
Entry fee: $0.00
Entry cost: $4.99
Liquidation value: $5.32
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.00
Observed movement: +0 pp
Opened: Jul 25, 2026, 6:13 PM UTC
Position age: 4d 20h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 3:11 PM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 24, 2026, 6:13 PM UTC

No paper position

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

Paper gain+$0.18

The model holds No at 94¢ until Aug 25, 2026, 10:13 PM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Entry timing lab

Trigger-versus-schedule ledgers

Every other ledger here may only act at the four scheduled daily runs. These test whether that matters. Each venue runs one ledger that re-checks the market every 15 minutes and enters as soon as a side’s live ask sits between 93 and 98 cents, beside a twin following the identical rule, sizing, and exits at the scheduled cadence alone. Both hold to official settlement, so the only difference between them is how often they may look. Pre-registered evaluation: at 100 closed positions or 8 weeks after activation, a trigger ledger passes only if it beats its own twin over the same period and is positive after costs.

Strategy version `2026-07-29.us-band-trigger.v1`

Re-checks a watchlist of US markets every 15 minutes and enters the moment a side's live ask sits between 93 and 98 cents, $5 per position, holding to official settlement.

Simulated value: $956.31
Paper cash: $900.30
Realized paper gain/loss: +$0.30
Open positions: 20
Completed positions: 3
Last evaluated: Jul 30, 2026, 11:10 AM UTC

No paper position

Will the Liga Colombia match Independiente Medellin vs AD Cali scheduled for Aug 1, 2026 end in a draw?

Paper loss−$2.46

The model holds No at 98¢ until Aug 28, 2026, 11:07 PM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 98¢
Entry fee: $0.00
Entry cost: $5.00
Liquidation value: $2.54
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.06
Observed movement: +0 pp
Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 11:07 PM UTC
Position age: 12h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 11:10 AM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 28, 2026, 11:07 PM UTC

No paper position

Will CU Tecnica de Cajamarca win against Cusco FC in the Liga 1 match scheduled for Aug 1, 2026?

Paper loss−$2.41

The model holds No at 98¢ until Aug 28, 2026, 11:07 PM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 98¢
Entry fee: $0.00
Entry cost: $5.00
Liquidation value: $2.59
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.06
Observed movement: +0 pp
Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 11:07 PM UTC
Position age: 12h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 11:10 AM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 28, 2026, 11:07 PM UTC

No paper position

Will the NWSL match Houston Dash vs NJ/NY Gotham FC scheduled for Aug 1, 2026 end in a draw?

Paper loss−$2.36

The model holds No at 98¢ until Aug 28, 2026, 11:07 PM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 98¢
Entry fee: $0.00
Entry cost: $5.00
Liquidation value: $2.64
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.06
Observed movement: +0 pp
Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 11:07 PM UTC
Position age: 12h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 11:10 AM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 28, 2026, 11:07 PM UTC

No paper position

Will the Liga 1 match Club Alianza Lima vs Club Alianza Atletico scheduled for Aug 1, 2026 end in a draw?

Paper loss−$2.36

The model holds No at 98¢ until Aug 28, 2026, 11:07 PM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 98¢
Entry fee: $0.00
Entry cost: $5.00
Liquidation value: $2.64
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.06
Observed movement: +0 pp
Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 11:07 PM UTC
Position age: 12h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 11:10 AM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 28, 2026, 11:07 PM UTC

No paper position

Will the Liga Promerica match LD Alajuelense vs Escorpiones de Belen scheduled for Aug 1, 2026 end in a draw?

Paper loss−$2.41

The model holds No at 98¢ until Aug 28, 2026, 11:07 PM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 98¢
Entry fee: $0.00
Entry cost: $5.00
Liquidation value: $2.59
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.06
Observed movement: +0 pp
Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 11:07 PM UTC
Position age: 12h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 11:10 AM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 28, 2026, 11:07 PM UTC

+4.50 paper position

Will the Ugo Humbert cover -4.5 vs the Ben Shelton in Ugo Humbert vs. Ben Shelton?

Paper loss−$1.95

The model holds +4.50 at 98¢ until Aug 28, 2026, 11:07 PM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 98¢
Entry fee: $0.00
Entry cost: $5.00
Liquidation value: $3.05
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.06
Observed movement: +0 pp
Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 11:07 PM UTC
Position age: 12h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 11:10 AM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 28, 2026, 11:07 PM UTC

No paper position

Will the Liga Nacional match Comunicaciones FC vs Deportivo San Pedro scheduled for Aug 1, 2026 end in a draw?

Paper loss−$2.46

The model holds No at 98¢ until Aug 28, 2026, 11:07 PM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 98¢
Entry fee: $0.00
Entry cost: $5.00
Liquidation value: $2.54
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.06
Observed movement: +0 pp
Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 11:07 PM UTC
Position age: 12h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 11:10 AM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 28, 2026, 11:07 PM UTC

+1.50 paper position

Will the Tatiana Prozorova cover -1.5 vs the Peyton Stearns in Tatiana Prozorova vs. Peyton Stearns?

Paper loss−$2.71

The model holds +1.50 at 98¢ until Aug 28, 2026, 11:07 PM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 98¢
Entry fee: $0.00
Entry cost: $5.00
Liquidation value: $2.29
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.06
Observed movement: +0 pp
Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 11:07 PM UTC
Position age: 12h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 11:10 AM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 28, 2026, 11:07 PM UTC

No paper position

Will EC Juventude win against CA Mineiro in the Copa do Brasil match scheduled for Aug 1, 2026?

Paper loss−$2.41

The model holds No at 98¢ until Aug 28, 2026, 11:07 PM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 98¢
Entry fee: $0.00
Entry cost: $5.00
Liquidation value: $2.59
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.06
Observed movement: +0 pp
Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 11:07 PM UTC
Position age: 12h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 11:10 AM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 28, 2026, 11:07 PM UTC

-1.50 paper position

Will the Jessica Pegula cover -1.5 vs the Magdalena Frech in Jessica Pegula vs. Magdalena Frech?

Paper loss−$2.61

The model holds -1.50 at 98¢ until Aug 28, 2026, 11:07 PM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 98¢
Entry fee: $0.00
Entry cost: $5.00
Liquidation value: $2.39
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.06
Observed movement: +0 pp
Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 11:07 PM UTC
Position age: 12h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 11:10 AM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 28, 2026, 11:07 PM UTC

No paper position

Will the Liga Nacional match CD Guastatoya vs CD Malacateco scheduled for Aug 1, 2026 end in a draw?

Paper loss−$2.41

The model holds No at 98¢ until Aug 28, 2026, 11:07 PM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 98¢
Entry fee: $0.00
Entry cost: $5.00
Liquidation value: $2.59
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.06
Observed movement: +0 pp
Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 11:07 PM UTC
Position age: 12h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 11:10 AM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 28, 2026, 11:07 PM UTC

Over paper position

Will the total in Sloane Stephens vs. Darja Vidmanova be more than 17.5?

Paper loss−$2.61

The model holds Over at 98¢ until Aug 28, 2026, 11:07 PM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 98¢
Entry fee: $0.00
Entry cost: $5.00
Liquidation value: $2.39
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.06
Observed movement: +0 pp
Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 11:07 PM UTC
Position age: 12h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 11:10 AM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 28, 2026, 11:07 PM UTC

No paper position

Kalinskaya wins 2-1

Paper loss−$2.56

The model holds No at 98¢ until Aug 28, 2026, 11:07 PM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 98¢
Entry fee: $0.00
Entry cost: $5.00
Liquidation value: $2.44
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.06
Observed movement: +0 pp
Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 11:07 PM UTC
Position age: 12h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 11:10 AM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 28, 2026, 11:07 PM UTC

No paper position

Will the Liga Promerica match Puntarenas FC vs Sporting FC scheduled for Aug 1, 2026 end in a draw?

Paper loss−$2.41

The model holds No at 98¢ until Aug 28, 2026, 11:07 PM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 98¢
Entry fee: $0.00
Entry cost: $5.00
Liquidation value: $2.59
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.06
Observed movement: +0 pp
Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 11:07 PM UTC
Position age: 12h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 11:10 AM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 28, 2026, 11:07 PM UTC

+4.50 paper position

Will the Brandon Nakashima cover 4.5 vs the Jakub Mensik in Brandon Nakashima vs. Jakub Mensik?

Paper loss−$2.36

The model holds +4.50 at 98¢ until Aug 28, 2026, 11:07 PM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 98¢
Entry fee: $0.00
Entry cost: $5.00
Liquidation value: $2.64
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.06
Observed movement: +0 pp
Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 11:07 PM UTC
Position age: 12h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 11:10 AM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 28, 2026, 11:07 PM UTC

No paper position

Will the NWSL match Bay FC vs Seattle Reign FC scheduled for Aug 1, 2026 end in a draw?

Paper loss−$2.41

The model holds No at 98¢ until Aug 28, 2026, 11:07 PM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 98¢
Entry fee: $0.00
Entry cost: $5.00
Liquidation value: $2.59
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.06
Observed movement: +0 pp
Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 11:07 PM UTC
Position age: 12h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 11:10 AM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 28, 2026, 11:07 PM UTC

No paper position

Will the Primera Chile match CD Limache vs CD Nublense scheduled for Aug 1, 2026 end in a draw?

Paper loss−$2.41

The model holds No at 98¢ until Aug 28, 2026, 11:07 PM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 98¢
Entry fee: $0.00
Entry cost: $5.00
Liquidation value: $2.59
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.06
Observed movement: +0 pp
Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 11:07 PM UTC
Position age: 12h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 11:10 AM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 28, 2026, 11:07 PM UTC

No paper position

Will Jazz Chisholm Jr. record at least 2 home runs in NYY vs CWS?

Paper loss−$0.06

The model holds No at 98¢ until Aug 29, 2026, 11:10 AM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 98¢
Entry fee: $0.00
Entry cost: $5.00
Liquidation value: $4.94
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.01
Observed movement: +0 pp
Opened: Jul 30, 2026, 11:10 AM UTC
Position age: 0h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 11:10 AM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 29, 2026, 11:10 AM UTC

Under paper position

Will the total in Alex de Minaur vs. Cruz Hewitt be more than 24.5?

Paper loss−$2.51

The model holds Under at 98¢ until Aug 29, 2026, 11:10 AM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 98¢
Entry fee: $0.00
Entry cost: $5.00
Liquidation value: $2.49
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.06
Observed movement: +0 pp
Opened: Jul 30, 2026, 11:10 AM UTC
Position age: 0h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 11:10 AM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 29, 2026, 11:10 AM UTC

No paper position

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on July 30?

Paper loss−$0.11

The model holds No at 98¢ until Aug 29, 2026, 11:10 AM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 98¢
Entry fee: $0.00
Entry cost: $5.00
Liquidation value: $4.89
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.01
Observed movement: +0 pp
Opened: Jul 30, 2026, 11:10 AM UTC
Position age: 0h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 11:10 AM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 29, 2026, 11:10 AM UTC

Strategy version `2026-07-29.us-band-pulse.v1`

The timing control: the identical US band rule, sizing, and exits, but evaluated only at the four scheduled daily runs — so the sole difference from its trigger twin is how often it may look.

Simulated value: $947.99
Paper cash: $895.40
Realized paper gain/loss: −$9.60
Open positions: 19
Completed positions: 6
Last evaluated: Jul 30, 2026, 3:10 PM UTC

-1.50 paper position

Will the Jessica Pegula cover -1.5 vs the Magdalena Frech in Jessica Pegula vs. Magdalena Frech?

Paper loss−$1.74

The model holds -1.50 at 98¢ until Aug 28, 2026, 10:19 PM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 98¢
Entry fee: $0.00
Entry cost: $5.00
Liquidation value: $3.26
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.06
Observed movement: +0 pp
Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 10:19 PM UTC
Position age: 16h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 3:11 PM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 28, 2026, 10:19 PM UTC

No paper position

Kalinskaya wins 2-1

Paper loss−$1.69

The model holds No at 98¢ until Aug 28, 2026, 10:19 PM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Strategy version `2026-07-29.global-band-trigger.v1`

The same 15-minute band rule on the zero-fee Global venue, where no taker fee stands between the observation and the result.

Simulated value: $1,000.79
Paper cash: $900.54
Realized paper gain/loss: +$0.46
Open positions: 20
Completed positions: 3
Last evaluated: Jul 30, 2026, 11:10 AM UTC

No paper position

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?

Paper loss−$0.45

The model holds No at 94.4¢ until Aug 28, 2026, 11:07 PM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 94.4¢
Entry fee: $0.00
Entry cost: $4.99
Liquidation value: $4.54
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.00
Observed movement: +0 pp
Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 11:07 PM UTC
Position age: 12h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 11:10 AM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 28, 2026, 11:07 PM UTC

Yes paper position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 30?

Paper gain+$0.20

The model holds Yes at 95.7¢ until Aug 28, 2026, 11:07 PM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Strategy version `2026-07-29.global-band-pulse.v1`

The timing control for the Global band trigger: identical rule and costs, evaluated only at the four scheduled daily runs.

Simulated value: $1,001.20
Paper cash: $900.41
Realized paper gain/loss: +$0.30
Open positions: 20
Completed positions: 2
Last evaluated: Jul 30, 2026, 3:10 PM UTC

No paper position

Will Ethereum reach $2,200 July 27-August 2?

Paper loss−$0.04

The model holds No at 98¢ until Aug 29, 2026, 10:18 AM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 98¢
Entry fee: $0.00
Entry cost: $5.00
Liquidation value: $4.96
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.00
Observed movement: +0 pp
Opened: Jul 30, 2026, 10:18 AM UTC
Position age: 4h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 3:11 PM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 29, 2026, 10:18 AM UTC

No paper position

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?

Paper gain+$0.01

The model holds No at 98¢ until Aug 29, 2026, 10:18 AM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation

Previous strategy versions

Winding-down paper ledgers

Earlier immutable strategy versions stop entering new positions but keep marking, exiting, and settling their remaining open positions until each ledger completes. Their records remain part of the prospective evidence.

Strategy version `2026-07-20.random-entry-control.v1`

The previous random-entry control: reproducible coin-flip selection with fixed $5 sizing and pulse-only exits.

Simulated value: $982.78
Paper cash: $982.78
Realized paper gain/loss: −$17.22
Open positions: 0
Completed positions: 34
Last evaluated: Jul 28, 2026, 2:18 PM UTC

No open positions in this ledger right now.

Strategy version `2026-07-20.momentum-paper.v3`

The previous momentum version: live entry quotes, seven-day holds, and write-offs for unquotable markets, but positions close only at scheduled pulses rather than between them.

Simulated value: $967.12
Paper cash: $967.12
Realized paper gain/loss: −$32.88
Open positions: 0
Completed positions: 44
Last evaluated: Jul 28, 2026, 2:18 PM UTC

No open positions in this ledger right now.

Strategy version `2026-07-20.momentum-guarded.v1`

The previous price-guarded momentum: an 85-cent live-ask entry guard with pulse-only exits.

Simulated value: $979.37
Paper cash: $979.37
Realized paper gain/loss: −$20.63
Open positions: 0
Completed positions: 36
Last evaluated: Jul 28, 2026, 2:18 PM UTC

No open positions in this ledger right now.

Strategy version `2026-07-20.global-copy-random.v1`

The previous random-copy control: identical copy mechanics with pulse-only exits.

Simulated value: $1,003.07
Paper cash: $994.96
Realized paper gain/loss: +$4.95
Open positions: 2
Completed positions: 4
Last evaluated: Jul 30, 2026, 10:18 AM UTC

Yes paper position

Will Brock Purdy win the 2026 NFL MVP?

Paper loss−$1.75

The model holds Yes at 4¢ until Aug 20, 2026, 2:15 PM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask: 4¢
Entry fee: $0.00
Entry cost: $5.00
Liquidation value: $3.25
Hypothetical exit fee: $0.00
Observed movement: +0 pp
Opened: Jul 21, 2026, 2:15 PM UTC
Position age: 8d 20h
Valuation observed: Jul 30, 2026, 10:19 AM UTC
Scheduled exit: Aug 20, 2026, 2:15 PM UTC

Yes paper position

Will Bad Bunny be the top artist for 2026?

Paper loss−$0.13

The model holds Yes at 76¢ until Aug 20, 2026, 2:15 PM UTC or official settlement, whichever comes first.

Point-in-time markOpen

Paper allocation: $5.00
Entry ask

Paper Portfolio

Paper value history

How the experiment works

Exact Evidence Score formula

Open paper positions

Completed paper positions

Recent skipped observations

Parallel comparison ledgers

Strategy version 2026-07-21.momentum-paper.v4

Strategy version 2026-07-21.random-entry-control.v2

Strategy version 2026-07-21.momentum-guarded.v2

Trader-copy comparison ledgers

Strategy version 2026-07-21.global-copy-top.v2

Strategy version 2026-07-21.global-copy-random.v2

Favorite-price comparison ledgers

Strategy version 2026-07-25.global-favorites.v1

Strategy version 2026-07-25.global-favorites-random.v1

Trigger-versus-schedule ledgers

Strategy version 2026-07-29.us-band-trigger.v1

Strategy version 2026-07-29.us-band-pulse.v1

Strategy version 2026-07-29.global-band-trigger.v1

Strategy version 2026-07-29.global-band-pulse.v1

Winding-down paper ledgers

Strategy version 2026-07-20.random-entry-control.v1

Strategy version 2026-07-20.momentum-paper.v3

Strategy version 2026-07-20.momentum-guarded.v1

Strategy version 2026-07-20.global-copy-random.v1

MLB Postseason Teams

Strategy version `2026-07-21.momentum-paper.v4`

Strategy version `2026-07-21.random-entry-control.v2`

Strategy version `2026-07-21.momentum-guarded.v2`

Strategy version `2026-07-21.global-copy-top.v2`

Strategy version `2026-07-21.global-copy-random.v2`

Strategy version `2026-07-25.global-favorites.v1`

Strategy version `2026-07-25.global-favorites-random.v1`

Strategy version `2026-07-29.us-band-trigger.v1`

Strategy version `2026-07-29.us-band-pulse.v1`

Strategy version `2026-07-29.global-band-trigger.v1`

Strategy version `2026-07-29.global-band-pulse.v1`

Strategy version `2026-07-20.random-entry-control.v1`

Strategy version `2026-07-20.momentum-paper.v3`

Strategy version `2026-07-20.momentum-guarded.v1`

Strategy version `2026-07-20.global-copy-random.v1`