An auditable what-if ledger
A prospective record of how one fixed momentum model behaves after fees, stale quotes, timed exits, settlements, gains, and losses.
Prospective simulation
Strategy version 2026-07-21.momentum-guarded.v2
Momentum v4's rules plus one guard: it skips any candidate whose live ask is above 85 cents, testing whether avoiding expensive entries changes the outcome.
No real money is traded
1 stale mark · 0 pending exits. Affected positions keep their last trusted valuation and timestamp.
Account record
100 recorded evaluations
| Evaluated | Paper cash | Open liquidation value | Simulated value | Change from initial |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $747.35 | $138.94 | $886.29 | −$113.71 | |
| $747.35 | $137.36 | $884.71 | −$115.29 | |
| $737.86 | $147.94 | $885.80 | −$114.20 | |
| $708.27 | $169.80 | $878.07 | −$121.93 | |
| $743.18 | $134.23 | $877.41 | −$122.59 | |
| $743.18 | $83.19 | $826.37 | −$173.63 | |
| $743.18 | $155.66 | $898.84 | −$101.16 | |
| $743.18 | $154.08 | $897.26 | −$102.74 | |
| $743.18 | $152.94 | $896.12 | −$103.88 | |
Fixed method
This section describes the active strategy version, 2026-07-21.momentum-paper.v4. Winding-down versions keep the exact rules recorded when they were active.
Candidate set. Only the published Largest Verified Moves section is considered.
Paper sizing. Evidence Score maps observable inputs to a $1–$25 maximum paper allocation.
Lifecycle. Entries use the live ask observed at evaluation, recorded next to the published snapshot quote. Marks and timed exits use the bid. Official settlement takes priority.
Holding period. A position leaves at the first evaluation within two hours of its seven-day deadline, or at official settlement, whichever happens first.
The five components below are rounded to whole points, then added together and capped at 100.
| Component | Points | Rule |
|---|---|---|
| Persistence | 0–35 | From up to seven daily side midpoints: 0 with no transition; otherwise 35 × upward transitions ÷ observed transitions × min(observed transitions ÷ 4, 1) |
| Quote quality | 0–25 | 25 × (10¢ − spread) ÷ 10¢, clamped from 0 to 25 |
| Movement magnitude | 0–20 | 20 × absolute movement ÷ 10 percentage points, clamped from 0 to 20 |
| Market activity | 2–10 | 2 + 8 × the midrank of source-backed activity among all other valid candidates (lower count plus half the equal count, ÷ other candidates). A single valid candidate uses 37.5%, producing 5 points. |
| Source freshness | 1–10 | 10 at ≤2h; 7 at ≤6h; 4 at ≤12h; 1 at ≤24h; older observations are skipped |
Paper allocation tiers: 0–39 = $1; 40–54 = $3; 55–69 = $5; 70–79 = $10; 80–89 = $15; 90–100 = $25.
Fees and quantity: The unrounded fee in dollars is 0.05 × contracts × price × (1 − price), then rounded to the nearest cent with half-even rounding. Quantity is the largest exact source minimum-trade increment whose ask notional plus rounded fee stays within its tier.
Ties and order: Candidates sort by total score, then published movement rank, then stable market ID. One contract per event may remain open, and a market can re-qualify only after its previous position completes.
Fresh marks and seven-day timed exits use the position-side bid and its fee. A quote must be observed inside the exit window to exit. Official settlement takes priority and has no simulated fee. If a market reports no quote or settlement for 72 hours past its deadline, the position is written off at its last trusted valuation and labeled as such.
| $743.18 |
| $158.36 |
| $901.54 |
| −$98.46 |
| $704.06 | $185.97 | $890.03 | −$109.97 |
| $739.05 | $147.30 | $886.35 | −$113.65 |
| $739.05 | $154.48 | $893.53 | −$106.47 |
| $721.54 | $203.07 | $924.61 | −$75.39 |
| $761.53 | $181.16 | $942.69 | −$57.31 |
| $761.53 | $180.52 | $942.05 | −$57.95 |
| $749.30 | $187.54 | $936.84 | −$63.16 |
| $779.15 | $162.87 | $942.02 | −$57.98 |
| $757.71 | $179.92 | $937.63 | −$62.37 |
| $757.71 | $177.42 | $935.13 | −$64.87 |
| $757.71 | $177.59 | $935.30 | −$64.70 |
| $757.71 | $177.59 | $935.30 | −$64.70 |
| $757.71 | $177.39 | $935.10 | −$64.90 |
| $757.71 | $183.27 | $940.98 | −$59.02 |
| $757.71 | $183.63 | $941.34 | −$58.66 |
| $757.71 | $182.56 | $940.27 | −$59.73 |
| $757.71 | $181.20 | $938.91 | −$61.09 |
| $757.71 | $182.42 | $940.13 | −$59.87 |
| $757.71 | $183.26 | $940.97 | −$59.03 |
| $757.71 | $183.25 | $940.96 | −$59.04 |
| $757.71 | $181.09 | $938.80 | −$61.20 |
| $757.71 | $179.94 | $937.65 | −$62.35 |
| $757.71 | $180.42 | $938.13 | −$61.87 |
| $782.71 | $158.44 | $941.15 | −$58.85 |
| $761.31 | $188.99 | $950.30 | −$49.70 |
| $761.31 | $181.10 | $942.41 | −$57.59 |
| $796.31 | $151.29 | $947.60 | −$52.40 |
| $796.31 | $150.03 | $946.34 | −$53.66 |
| $796.31 | $150.56 | $946.87 | −$53.13 |
| $796.31 | $150.84 | $947.15 | −$52.85 |
| $796.31 | $153.83 | $950.14 | −$49.86 |
| $754.45 | $194.87 | $949.32 | −$50.68 |
| $754.45 | $182.59 | $937.04 | −$62.96 |
| $784.45 | $153.28 | $937.73 | −$62.27 |
| $760.71 | $179.90 | $940.61 | −$59.39 |
| $729.55 | $209.29 | $938.84 | −$61.16 |
| $759.10 | $182.97 | $942.07 | −$57.93 |
| $743.98 | $195.45 | $939.43 | −$60.57 |
| $743.98 | $187.35 | $931.33 | −$68.67 |
| $793.98 | $138.00 | $931.98 | −$68.02 |
| $750.82 | $165.26 | $916.08 | −$83.92 |
| $750.82 | $183.52 | $934.34 | −$65.66 |
| $820.81 | $112.87 | $933.68 | −$66.32 |
| $820.81 | $111.44 | $932.25 | −$67.75 |
| $801.29 | $122.65 | $923.94 | −$76.06 |
| $801.29 | $123.33 | $924.62 | −$75.38 |
| $786.17 | $131.34 | $917.51 | −$82.49 |
| $745.98 | $168.56 | $914.54 | −$85.46 |
| $711.86 | $192.19 | $904.05 | −$95.95 |
| $776.85 | $130.08 | $906.93 | −$93.07 |
| $705.37 | $176.26 | $881.63 | −$118.37 |
| $705.37 | $178.11 | $883.48 | −$116.52 |
| $755.36 | $130.49 | $885.85 | −$114.15 |
| $742.19 | $145.31 | $887.50 | −$112.50 |
| $729.82 | $157.85 | $887.67 | −$112.33 |
| $761.04 | $139.17 | $900.21 | −$99.79 |
| $727.66 | $164.61 | $892.27 | −$107.73 |
| $684.96 | $180.87 | $865.83 | −$134.17 |
| $769.62 | $101.84 | $871.46 | −$128.54 |
| $769.62 | $100.70 | $870.32 | −$129.68 |
| $769.62 | $98.87 | $868.49 | −$131.51 |
| $769.62 | $99.30 | $868.92 | −$131.08 |
| $769.62 | $102.41 | $872.03 | −$127.97 |
| $738.69 | $135.50 | $874.19 | −$125.81 |
| $711.55 | $159.77 | $871.32 | −$128.68 |
| $766.53 | $118.79 | $885.32 | −$114.68 |
| $752.06 | $146.31 | $898.37 | −$101.63 |
| $699.75 | $181.41 | $881.16 | −$118.84 |
| $769.75 | $114.47 | $884.22 | −$115.78 |
| $708.98 | $173.70 | $882.68 | −$117.32 |
| $708.98 | $164.22 | $873.20 | −$126.80 |
| $741.13 | $128.96 | $870.09 | −$129.91 |
| $718.79 | $152.91 | $871.70 | −$128.30 |
| $700.45 | $173.14 | $873.59 | −$126.41 |
| $760.43 | $116.41 | $876.84 | −$123.16 |
| $760.43 | $116.14 | $876.57 | −$123.43 |
| $760.43 | $116.07 | $876.50 | −$123.50 |
| $760.43 | $116.46 | $876.89 | −$123.11 |
| $760.43 | $114.37 | $874.80 | −$125.20 |
| $733.73 | $136.31 | $870.04 | −$129.96 |
| $733.73 | $140.99 | $874.72 | −$125.28 |
| $748.72 | $148.52 | $897.24 | −$102.76 |
| $748.72 | $176.07 | $924.79 | −$75.21 |
| $748.72 | $184.71 | $933.43 | −$66.57 |
| $783.72 | $149.06 | $932.78 | −$67.22 |
| $783.72 | $168.41 | $952.13 | −$47.87 |
| $783.72 | $175.30 | $959.02 | −$40.98 |
| $868.46 | $92.94 | $961.40 | −$38.60 |
| $868.46 | $97.64 | $966.10 | −$33.90 |
| $868.46 | $96.34 | $964.80 | −$35.20 |
Each row was recorded after a scheduled Pulse run. Open positions are valued at the available bid; stale marks remain labeled in the position ledger.
Current ledger
No paper position
The model holds No at 30¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 42¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 29¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 65¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 62¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 31.9¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 51¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 64¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 73¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 51.6¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 53¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 24¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 84¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 61.3¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Robert Valentin paper position
The model holds Robert Valentin at 61¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 49¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 29¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Closed ledger
No paper position
Team WE paper position
ENCE paper position
CCG Esports paper position
-1.50 paper position
Travoman Team paper position
-1.50 paper position
Philadelphia Phillies paper position
Yes paper position
Glamorgan paper position
Zero Tenacity paper position
Kiwoom Heroes paper position
No paper position
No paper position
SSG Landers paper position
KT Wiz paper position
RMD Gaming paper position
Kei Nishikori paper position
Viktorija Golubic paper position
Bebop paper position
Under paper position
No paper position
Yes paper position
Alice Rame paper position
Team Comanche paper position
Leyre Romero Gormaz paper position
Daxak Team paper position
Sophia Hurrion paper position
Carles Rojas paper position
T1 paper position
Makar Krivoshchekov paper position
Lorenzo Balducci paper position
Gen.G paper position
Guyana Amazon Warriors paper position
Yes paper position
No paper position
-2.50 paper position
Yes paper position
Yes paper position
Yes paper position
Under paper position
+2.50 paper position
Karmine Corp paper position
Kansas City Royals paper position
Thiago Seyboth Wild paper position
Yes paper position
Yes paper position
Jacopo Denitto paper position
Hiroshima Carp paper position
SPARTA paper position
Doosan Bears paper position
CYBERSHOKE Prospects paper position
ThunderTalk Gaming paper position
Yes paper position
No paper position
No paper position
San Diego Padres paper position
Yes paper position
No paper position
Yes paper position
No paper position
Detroit Tigers paper position
LOS paper position
GIANTX paper position
megoshort paper position
-2.50 paper position
BORRACHEIROS paper position
Under paper position
Sunrisers Leeds paper position
Yes paper position
Team Jenz paper position
Yes paper position
Weibo Gaming paper position
MVK Esports paper position
Yes paper position
Detroit Tigers paper position
Milwaukee Brewers paper position
Yes paper position
Butterfly paper position
Hynek Barton paper position
Vexar paper position
EDward Gaming paper position
LGD Gaming paper position
Conviction paper position
-1.50 paper position
No paper position
Yes paper position
Yes paper position
Under paper position
No paper position
Yes paper position
Under paper position
No paper position
Infinite paper position
Gentle Mates paper position
Myth Esports paper position
Entropy paper position
Yes paper position
Galions paper position
+1.50 paper position
Recorded omissions
| Market | Evaluated | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Will the total in CONN vs CHI be more than 171.5? | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Who will win in the upcoming tennis event Theo Papamalamis vs Noah Karma scheduled for July 30, 2026 at 9:00 AM UTC? | The live ask exceeded the strategy's 85-cent entry guard | |
| Who will win in the upcoming esports event Shopify Rebellion Black vs 2GAME Esports scheduled for July 29, 2026 at 7:00 PM UTC? | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Who will win in the upcoming tennis event Sebastian Dominko vs Oliver Tarvet scheduled for July 30, 2026 at 9:00 AM UTC? | The live ask exceeded the strategy's 85-cent entry guard | |
| Highest temperature in NYC on July 30? | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Who will win in the upcoming tennis event Mariia Drobysheva vs Lavinia Luciano scheduled for July 30, 2026 at 8:00 AM UTC? | The live ask exceeded the strategy's 85-cent entry guard | |
| Michigan Senate Democratic Primary Winner | The live ask exceeded the strategy's 85-cent entry guard | |
| Who will win in the upcoming mma event Roman Dolidze vs Reinier de Ridder scheduled for August 22, 2026 at 10:00 PM UTC? | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Who Will Be Announced Out of Trump Admin in 2026? | Another contract from the event was already open | |
| What Will Be in a US-Iran Deal in 2026? | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 30? | The live ask exceeded the strategy's 85-cent entry guard | |
| Who will win in the upcoming tennis event Zangar Nurlanuly vs Yerassyl Yerdilda scheduled for July 30, 2026 at 8:00 AM UTC? | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| AFC South Division Winner | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| NBA Eastern Conference Champion | Another contract from the event was already open | |
| Will Deep Cross Gaming win Game 2 vs Ground Zero Gaming? | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Bank of Brazil Decision in August? | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| American League Cy Young Award | Another contract from the event was already open | |
| Who will win in the upcoming esports event PuckChamp vs Zero Tenacity scheduled for July 30, 2026 at 9:00 AM UTC? | The live ask exceeded the strategy's 85-cent entry guard | |
| Which Company Has #1 AI Model end of 2026? | The live ask exceeded the strategy's 85-cent entry guard | |
| Samuele Pieri vs. Federico Agustin Gomez | The live ask exceeded the strategy's 85-cent entry guard | |
| Who will win in the upcoming esports event Frites Esports Club vs Once Upon A Team scheduled for July 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM UTC? | The live ask exceeded the strategy's 85-cent entry guard | |
| Who will win in the upcoming esports event avice Team vs Daxak Team scheduled for July 30, 2026 at 3:00 PM UTC? | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| US GDP growth in Q2 2026 | Another contract from the event was already open | |
| NBA MVP | Another contract from the event was already open | |
| Who will win in the upcoming cricket event Southern Brave vs Birmingham Phoenix scheduled for July 30, 2026 at 5:30 PM UTC? | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| TIME Person of the Year 2026 | The live ask exceeded the strategy's 85-cent entry guard | |
| Yelyzaveta Kotliar vs. Mia Ristic | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Who will win in the upcoming esports event Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs DetonatioN FocusMe scheduled for July 30, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC? | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Michigan Senate Democratic Primary Margin of Victory? | A complete entry quote was unavailable | |
| Who will win in the upcoming tennis event Bastian Malla vs Alvaro Ariel Frutos Alonso scheduled for July 29, 2026 at 4:30 PM UTC? | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Will VfB eSports win Game 2 vs Kaufland Hangry Knights? | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Who will win in the upcoming table-tennis event Kuzmenko Dmytro vs Maliuk Serhii scheduled for July 30, 2026 at 10:00 AM UTC? | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Who will win in the upcoming tennis event Patrick Zahraj vs Vincent Marysko scheduled for July 30, 2026 at 8:00 AM UTC? | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Who will win in the upcoming baseball event New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs scheduled for August 1, 2026 at 11:15 PM UTC? | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Pro Football Offensive Player of the Year | The live ask exceeded the strategy's 85-cent entry guard | |
| Who will win in the upcoming esports event Deep Cross Gaming vs Ground Zero Gaming scheduled for July 30, 2026 at 9:00 AM UTC? | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Highest temperature in NYC on July 30? | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Who will win in the upcoming tennis event Emma Ottavia Ghirardato vs Manon Favier scheduled for July 30, 2026 at 8:00 AM UTC? | The live ask exceeded the strategy's 85-cent entry guard | |
| Highest temperature in Chicago on July 30? | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| 2026 Nobel Peace Prize Winner | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Top Artist in the US 2026? | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 30? | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Who will win in the upcoming table-tennis event Yureneva Svitlana vs Kurtenko Alina scheduled for July 30, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC? | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| NL East Division Winner | The live ask exceeded the strategy's 85-cent entry guard | |
| Pro Football Comeback Player of the Year | Another contract from the event was already open | |
| Will Virtus.pro win Map 2 vs BakS eSports? | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Who will win in the upcoming tennis event Carles Hernandez vs Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento scheduled for July 30, 2026 at 8:00 AM UTC? | The live ask exceeded the strategy's 85-cent entry guard | |
| AL East Division Winner | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Who will win in the upcoming esports event Rostik Team vs Travoman Team scheduled for July 29, 2026 at 6:00 PM UTC? | Another contract from the event was already open | |
| Who will win in the upcoming baseball event Milwaukee Brewers vs San Francisco Giants scheduled for July 29, 2026 at 7:45 PM UTC? | A complete entry quote was unavailable | |
| Who will win in the upcoming baseball event Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres scheduled for July 29, 2026 at 8:10 PM UTC? | The live ask exceeded the strategy's 85-cent entry guard | |
| Will the Milwaukee Brewers cover 1.5 vs the San Francisco Giants in Milwaukee Brewers vs San Francisco Giants? | A complete entry quote was unavailable | |
| Will the Milwaukee Brewers cover 2.5 vs the San Francisco Giants in Milwaukee Brewers vs San Francisco Giants? | The live ask exceeded the strategy's 85-cent entry guard | |
| Will the Colorado Rockies cover -1.5 vs the San Diego Padres in Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres? | Another contract from the event was already open | |
| Will the Colorado Rockies cover -2.5 vs the San Diego Padres in Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres? | Another contract from the event was already open | |
| Minnesota Governor Republican Primary Winner? | Another contract from the event was already open | |
| Kawhi Leonard Next Team | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| US GDP growth in Q2 2026 | The live ask exceeded the strategy's 85-cent entry guard | |
| Will the Seattle Mariners cover 1.5 vs the Los Angeles Dodgers in Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Dodgers? | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Will the total in Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres be more than 7.5? | Another contract from the event was already open | |
| Will the Colorado Rockies cover 2.5 vs the San Diego Padres in Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres? | Another contract from the event was already open | |
| Zeynep Sonmez vs. Elvina Kalieva | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Which Companies will have #1 AI Model in 2026? | The live ask exceeded the strategy's 85-cent entry guard | |
| Will the total in Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres be more than 8.5? | Another contract from the event was already open | |
| Will the total in Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres be more than 9.5? | Another contract from the event was already open | |
| Kawhi Leonard Next Team | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Michigan Senate Democratic Primary Winner | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Who will win in the upcoming esports event BNK FearX Youth vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers scheduled for July 30, 2026 at 5:00 AM UTC? | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Who will win in the upcoming baseball event Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros scheduled for August 1, 2026 at 12:15 AM UTC? | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Who will win in the upcoming baseball event Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds scheduled for July 31, 2026 at 10:10 PM UTC? | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Michigan Senate Democratic Primary Winner | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Will Washington Spirit win against Utah Royals FC in the NWSL match scheduled for Jul 29, 2026? | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Will the total in ATL vs DAL be more than 178.5? | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Will Francisco Lindor record at least 2 hits in ATL vs NYM? | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Who will win in the upcoming esports event Team Solid vs Vivo Keyd Stars Academy scheduled for July 30, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC? | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Who will win in the upcoming baseball event Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles scheduled for July 31, 2026 at 11:05 PM UTC? | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Will the total in Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds be more than 8.5? | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Who will win in the upcoming esports event FULL SENSE vs ZETA DIVISION scheduled for July 30, 2026 at 11:00 AM UTC? | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Who will win in the upcoming baseball event San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres scheduled for August 1, 2026 at 1:45 AM UTC? | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| MO-01 Democratic Primary Winner | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Elon Musk Net Worth on July 31? | Another contract from the event was already open | |
| Cody Wong vs. Himeno Sakatsume | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| MLB Postseason Teams | Another contract from the event was already open | |
| The Polymarket Classic Winner | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Michigan Senate Democratic Primary Margin of Victory? | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Who will win in the upcoming baseball event Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies scheduled for August 1, 2026 at 12:40 AM UTC? | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Will CR Flamengo win against SC Internacional in the Brasileirao match scheduled for Jul 29, 2026? | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| MLB Postseason Teams | Another contract from the event was already open | |
| Who will win in the upcoming basketball event Indiana vs Portland scheduled for August 1, 2026 at 2:00 AM UTC? | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Will the total in Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds be more than 9.5? | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Rafael Jodar vs. Kei Nishikori | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Who will win in the upcoming esports event Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy scheduled for July 30, 2026 at 5:00 AM UTC? | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Who will win in the upcoming basketball event Seattle vs Atlanta scheduled for July 31, 2026 at 11:30 PM UTC? | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Will Chris Sale record at least 6 pitching strikeouts in ATL vs NYM? | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Who will win in the upcoming baseball event Baltimore Orioles vs Detroit Tigers scheduled for July 29, 2026 at 5:10 PM UTC? | The live ask exceeded the strategy's 85-cent entry guard | |
| Will the Arizona Diamondbacks cover -2.5 vs the Pittsburgh Pirates in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates? | Another contract from the event was already open | |
| Will PFK Levski Sofia win against Universitatea Craiova CS in the UEFA Champions League match scheduled for Jul 29, 2026? | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Will Aarhus GF win against KKS Lech Poznan in the UEFA Champions League match scheduled for Jul 29, 2026? | The live ask exceeded the strategy's 85-cent entry guard | |
| Will Universitatea Craiova CS win against PFK Levski Sofia in the UEFA Champions League match scheduled for Jul 29, 2026? | The 20-position portfolio limit was already reached | |
| Who will win in the upcoming baseball event Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates scheduled for July 29, 2026 at 4:35 PM UTC? | Another contract from the event was already open |
Strategy lab
These strategies run beside the featured model over the same candidates, prices, and fees, each with its own independent $1,000 paper ledger. The random-entry control selects candidates by a reproducible coin flip, so any strategy's edge must show up as outperformance against it. Pre-registered evaluation: at 100 closed positions or 8 weeks after activation (whichever comes first), a strategy passes only if it beats the control over the same period and is positive after fees.
2026-07-21.momentum-paper.v4Enters US markets from the published Largest Verified Moves list, sized $1–$25 by Evidence Score at the live ask. Positions close at official settlement, at the seven-day exit, or between pulses via the exit sentinel; a market can re-qualify after its position completes.
No paper position
The model holds No at 46.4¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 57¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 73¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 99¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 87¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 51.6¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 53¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 24¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 94¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 34¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 96¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 61.3¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Robert Valentin paper position
The model holds Robert Valentin at 61¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 49¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
2026-07-21.random-entry-control.v2The scientific control: draws from the same candidates by a reproducible coin flip with fixed $5 sizing and the same lifecycle, so any momentum edge has to show up as outperformance against it.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 47¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
Global copy lab
These ledgers run on the Global Polymarket venue (its own fee model; spread is the only simulated cost) and copy tracked trader books: one follows the most profitable recent wallets, the other copies randomly selected active wallets with identical mechanics, so profitability-selection is the only difference. Wallets are never identified. Pre-registered evaluation: at 100 closed positions or 8 weeks after activation, the copy strategy passes only if it beats the random-copy control over the same period and is positive after costs.
2026-07-21.global-copy-top.v2Copies newly appeared positions from the 20 most profitable recently active Global Polymarket wallets at $5 per copy, and exits when the copied trader exits, at official resolution, or after 30 days. Wallets are never identified.
No paper position
The model holds No at 96.8¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 25¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 11¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 28¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 13¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 53¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 34¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 44¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 11¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 80¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Texas Rangers paper position
The model holds Texas Rangers at 43¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Under paper position
The model holds Under at 57¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
St. Louis Cardinals paper position
The model holds St. Louis Cardinals at 53¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Under paper position
The model holds Under at 48¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
2026-07-21.global-copy-random.v2The copy lab's control: identical copy mechanics over a reproducible random draw of active Global wallets, so selecting traders by profitability is the only difference being tested.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 0.5¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 0.5¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Global favorites lab
These ledgers test the documented favorite–longshot bias on the Global Polymarket venue (its own fee model; spread is the only simulated cost). One buys the favorite side priced 93–98¢ in markets closing within seven days; the control buys a reproducibly random side of the identical market pool with identical mechanics, so favorite-side selection is the only difference. Pre-registered evaluation: at 100 closed positions or 8 weeks after activation, the favorites strategy passes only if it beats the random-side control over the same period and is positive after costs.
2026-07-25.global-favorites.v1Tests the documented favorite–longshot bias: buys the favorite side priced 93–98¢ in Global markets closing within seven days, $5 per position, and holds to official resolution (30-day backstop).
No paper position
The model holds No at 94¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 97.9¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 94.3¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 97¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 94.5¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 97¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 97.9¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 96.3¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 94¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 97.8¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 97.4¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 97.5¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 97.7¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 97.9¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 97.5¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
2026-07-25.global-favorites-random.v1The favorites lab's control: buys a reproducibly random side of the same eligible markets with identical mechanics, so favorite-side selection is the only difference being tested.
No paper position
The model holds No at 93¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 94¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Entry timing lab
Every other ledger here may only act at the four scheduled daily runs. These test whether that matters. Each venue runs one ledger that re-checks the market every 15 minutes and enters as soon as a side’s live ask sits between 93 and 98 cents, beside a twin following the identical rule, sizing, and exits at the scheduled cadence alone. Both hold to official settlement, so the only difference between them is how often they may look. Pre-registered evaluation: at 100 closed positions or 8 weeks after activation, a trigger ledger passes only if it beats its own twin over the same period and is positive after costs.
2026-07-29.us-band-trigger.v1Re-checks a watchlist of US markets every 15 minutes and enters the moment a side's live ask sits between 93 and 98 cents, $5 per position, holding to official settlement.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
+4.50 paper position
The model holds +4.50 at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
+1.50 paper position
The model holds +1.50 at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
-1.50 paper position
The model holds -1.50 at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Over paper position
The model holds Over at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
+4.50 paper position
The model holds +4.50 at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Under paper position
The model holds Under at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
2026-07-29.us-band-pulse.v1The timing control: the identical US band rule, sizing, and exits, but evaluated only at the four scheduled daily runs — so the sole difference from its trigger twin is how often it may look.
-1.50 paper position
The model holds -1.50 at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
2026-07-29.global-band-trigger.v1The same 15-minute band rule on the zero-fee Global venue, where no taker fee stands between the observation and the result.
No paper position
The model holds No at 94.4¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 95.7¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
2026-07-29.global-band-pulse.v1The timing control for the Global band trigger: identical rule and costs, evaluated only at the four scheduled daily runs.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Previous strategy versions
Earlier immutable strategy versions stop entering new positions but keep marking, exiting, and settling their remaining open positions until each ledger completes. Their records remain part of the prospective evidence.
2026-07-20.random-entry-control.v1The previous random-entry control: reproducible coin-flip selection with fixed $5 sizing and pulse-only exits.
No open positions in this ledger right now.
2026-07-20.momentum-paper.v3The previous momentum version: live entry quotes, seven-day holds, and write-offs for unquotable markets, but positions close only at scheduled pulses rather than between them.
No open positions in this ledger right now.
2026-07-20.momentum-guarded.v1The previous price-guarded momentum: an 85-cent live-ask entry guard with pulse-only exits.
No open positions in this ledger right now.
2026-07-19.momentum-paper.v2The original momentum version: entries priced from the published snapshot quote, strict seven-day holds, and no re-entry into a market it ever held.
No open positions in this ledger right now.
2026-07-20.global-copy-random.v1The previous random-copy control: identical copy mechanics with pulse-only exits.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 4¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 76¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
The model holds Yes at 40¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
New York Mets paper position
The model holds New York Mets at 54.5¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 92¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Guilherme Pat paper position
The model holds Guilherme Pat at 42¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 41¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 97¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 94¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 74¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 45.5¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 83¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 23¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 86¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 95¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 37¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 94¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 55¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 24¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 61.3¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Harriet Dart paper position
The model holds Harriet Dart at 100¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 11¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 5.2¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 59¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 24¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 75¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 15¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 6¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 94¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 95.9¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 94¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 96.9¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 96.4¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 95¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 2.4¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 97.9¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 5.7¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 96.3¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 94¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 94¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 97¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 97.8¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 3.2¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 6¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 10¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Over paper position
The model holds Over at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
-1.50 paper position
The model holds -1.50 at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
+4.50 paper position
The model holds +4.50 at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
+4.50 paper position
The model holds +4.50 at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
+1.50 paper position
The model holds +1.50 at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Daria Egorova paper position
The model holds Daria Egorova at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 95¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 97.1¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 97¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 95¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 96.5¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 97.9¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 97.8¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 95.6¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 97.7¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 95.9¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 96.9¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 97.2¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 95¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 94.9¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 96.9¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 97.9¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 97.9¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 96.9¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 97.2¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 94.9¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 96.8¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 95¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 94.6¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 93.9¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 98¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 94¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 95¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 96.4¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 93.7¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 96.9¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
Yes paper position
The model holds Yes at 94.7¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.
No paper position
The model holds No at 97.9¢ until or official settlement, whichever comes first.