xAI
Source end time Jan 14, 2027, 11:00 PM UTC
- Complete quote
- Best bid 1¢
- Best ask 2¢
- BBO midpoint 1.5¢
- 1¢ spread
- $3.84K reported traded notional
Recent daily snapshots
Yes midpoint evidence
- First observed
- 15¢
- Latest observed
- 1.5¢
Daily midpoint observations, not live prices or a forecast.
Why it appears
Two daily snapshots passed the matching-side, quote, spread, movement, and source-backed activity checks.
The selected side's midpoint moved -9 percentage points since the previous daily snapshot.
- Matching market side in both snapshots
- Best bid and ask available in both snapshots
- Positive reported traded notional from the current market Book
- Bid-ask spread no greater than 10¢ in both snapshots
Verified daily snapshots
Snapshot comparison
- Jul 29, 2026, 10:09 PM UTC
- 10.5¢
- Jul 30, 2026, 10:09 AM UTC
- 1.5¢
- Change
- -9 pp
This compares two verified daily snapshots. It is not a live price chart or performance forecast.
Contract and resolution details
- Source end time
- Jan 14, 2027, 11:00 PM UTC
- Timing interpretation
- Source metadata—not a verified trading cutoff.
- Resolution source
- A separate resolution source was not provided in this edition.
Published rules
This market will settle to Yes if xAI has the #1 ranked AI model on the Arena AI Text Arena leaderboard on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET (Style Control Off). Outcome sourced from Arena AI. The #1 ranking is determined by the "Rank" column of the Arena AI Text Arena leaderboard, with Style Control toggled off (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control). If multiple models from different companies are tied for rank #1, the model with the highest Score will be considered the #1-ranked model (including any underlying, unrounded values reflected in the data below the leaderboard). If a tie remains, the company whose name, as listed in this market, comes first in alphabetical order will be considered the winner.