A selective view of verified market movement, quote quality, source-reported activity, and timing. Rankings describe observable market activity—not expected profit or outcome accuracy.
Prospective simulation
Paper Portfolio
Strategy version 2026-07-21.momentum-paper.v4
Enters US markets from the published Largest Verified Moves list, sized $1–$25 by Evidence Score at the live ask. Positions close at official settlement, at the seven-day exit, or between pulses via the exit sentinel; a market can re-qualify after its position completes.
No real money is traded
Paper cash$733.38
+
Open liquidation value$164.81
=
Simulated value$898.19
Initial paper balance
$1,000.00
Total paper gain/loss
−$101.81 (−10.18%)
Paper cash
$733.38
Open positions
17
Completed positions
151
Source evidence
Last evaluated
Browse by evidence condition
The largest absolute changes that cleared the daily comparison's stable-side, quote, spread, movement, and source-backed activity checks.
Largest verified moves · sports
Mariia Drobysheva vs. Lavinia Luciano
1 contract shown in this section
Mariia Drobysheva vs Lavinia Luciano
Source end time Aug 13, 2026, 8:00 AM UTC
Selected side Mariia Drobysheva38.5¢-45 pp
Complete quote
Best bid 35¢
Best ask 42¢
BBO midpoint 38.5¢
7¢ spread
$966K reported traded notional
Recent daily snapshots
Mariia Drobysheva midpoint evidence
2 verified observations
First observed
83.5¢
Latest observed
38.5¢
Jul 29, 2026–Jul 30, 2026 UTC-45 pp net change
Daily midpoint observations, not live prices or a forecast.
Why it appears
Data qualityVerified comparison
Two daily snapshots passed the matching-side, quote, spread, movement, and source-backed activity checks.
The selected side's midpoint moved -45 percentage points since the previous daily snapshot.
Matching market side in both snapshots
Best bid and ask available in both snapshots
Positive reported traded notional from the current market Book
Bid-ask spread no greater than 10¢ in both snapshots
Largest verified moves · sports
Kuzmenko Dmytro vs. Maliuk Serhii
1 contract shown in this section
Kuzmenko Dmytro vs Maliuk Serhii
Source end time Aug 1, 2026, 10:00 AM UTC
Selected side Kuzmenko Dmytro3.5¢-40 pp
Complete quote
Best bid 3¢
Best ask 4¢
BBO midpoint 3.5¢
1¢ spread
$146K reported traded notional
Recent daily snapshots
Kuzmenko Dmytro midpoint evidence
2 verified observations
First observed
43.5¢
Latest observed
3.5¢
Jul 29, 2026–Jul 30, 2026 UTC-40 pp net change
Daily midpoint observations, not live prices or a forecast.
Why it appears
Data qualityVerified comparison
Two daily snapshots passed the matching-side, quote, spread, movement, and source-backed activity checks.
The selected side's midpoint moved -40 percentage points since the previous daily snapshot.
Matching market side in both snapshots
Best bid and ask available in both snapshots
Positive reported traded notional from the current market Book
Bid-ask spread no greater than 10¢ in both snapshots
Largest verified moves · sports
Yelyzaveta Kotliar vs. Mia Ristic
1 contract shown in this section
Yelyzaveta Kotliar vs Mia Ristic
Source end time Aug 12, 2026, 8:00 AM UTC
Selected side Yelyzaveta Kotliar55.5¢+35.5 pp
Complete quote
Best bid 55¢
Best ask 56¢
BBO midpoint 55.5¢
1¢ spread
$5.19M reported traded notional
Recent daily snapshots
Yelyzaveta Kotliar midpoint evidence
3 verified observations
First observed
20.5¢
Latest observed
55.5¢
Jul 28, 2026–Jul 30, 2026 UTC+35 pp net change
Daily midpoint observations, not live prices or a forecast.
Why it appears
Data qualityVerified comparison
Two daily snapshots passed the matching-side, quote, spread, movement, and source-backed activity checks.
The selected side's midpoint moved +35.5 percentage points since the previous daily snapshot.
Matching market side in both snapshots
Best bid and ask available in both snapshots
Positive reported traded notional from the current market Book
Bid-ask spread no greater than 10¢ in both snapshots
Largest verified moves · sports
Bastian Malla vs. Alvaro Ariel Frutos Alonso
1 contract shown in this section
Bastian Malla vs Alvaro Ariel Frutos Alonso
Source end time Aug 12, 2026, 4:30 PM UTC
Selected side Bastian Malla81.5¢+30 pp
Complete quote
Best bid 81¢
Best ask 82¢
BBO midpoint 81.5¢
1¢ spread
$799K reported traded notional
Recent daily snapshots
Bastian Malla midpoint evidence
3 verified observations
First observed
72¢
Latest observed
81.5¢
Jul 28, 2026–Jul 30, 2026 UTC+9.5 pp net change
Daily midpoint observations, not live prices or a forecast.
Why it appears
Data qualityVerified comparison
Two daily snapshots passed the matching-side, quote, spread, movement, and source-backed activity checks.
The selected side's midpoint moved +30 percentage points since the previous daily snapshot.
Matching market side in both snapshots
Best bid and ask available in both snapshots
Positive reported traded notional from the current market Book
Bid-ask spread no greater than 10¢ in both snapshots
Largest verified moves · sports
Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs. DetonatioN FocusMe
1 contract shown in this section
Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs DetonatioN FocusMe
Source end time Aug 13, 2026, 11:30 AM UTC
Selected side Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming59¢-26.5 pp
Complete quote
Best bid 57¢
Best ask 61¢
BBO midpoint 59¢
4¢ spread
$827K reported traded notional
Recent daily snapshots
Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming midpoint evidence
4 verified observations
First observed
86.5¢
Latest observed
59¢
Jul 27, 2026–Jul 30, 2026 UTC-27.5 pp net change
Daily midpoint observations, not live prices or a forecast.
Why it appears
Data qualityVerified comparison
Two daily snapshots passed the matching-side, quote, spread, movement, and source-backed activity checks.
The selected side's midpoint moved -26.5 percentage points since the previous daily snapshot.
Matching market side in both snapshots
Best bid and ask available in both snapshots
Positive reported traded notional from the current market Book
Bid-ask spread no greater than 10¢ in both snapshots
Largest verified moves · sports
Shopify Rebellion Black vs. 2GAME Esports
1 contract shown in this section
Shopify Rebellion Black vs 2GAME Esports
Source end time Aug 12, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Selected side Shopify Rebellion Black46.5¢-26 pp
Complete quote
Best bid 42¢
Best ask 51¢
BBO midpoint 46.5¢
9¢ spread
$14.3M reported traded notional
Recent daily snapshots
Shopify Rebellion Black midpoint evidence
2 verified observations
First observed
72.5¢
Latest observed
46.5¢
Jul 29, 2026–Jul 30, 2026 UTC-26 pp net change
Daily midpoint observations, not live prices or a forecast.
Why it appears
Data qualityVerified comparison
Two daily snapshots passed the matching-side, quote, spread, movement, and source-backed activity checks.
The selected side's midpoint moved -26 percentage points since the previous daily snapshot.
Matching market side in both snapshots
Best bid and ask available in both snapshots
Positive reported traded notional from the current market Book
Bid-ask spread no greater than 10¢ in both snapshots
Largest verified moves · sports
Virtus.pro vs. BakS eSports
1 contract shown in this section
Virtus.pro wins map 2
Source end time Aug 13, 2026, 1:00 PM UTC
Selected side Yes43.5¢-25.5 pp
Complete quote
Best bid 43¢
Best ask 44¢
BBO midpoint 43.5¢
1¢ spread
$41 reported traded notional
Recent daily snapshots
Yes midpoint evidence
2 verified observations
First observed
69¢
Latest observed
43.5¢
Jul 29, 2026–Jul 30, 2026 UTC-25.5 pp net change
Daily midpoint observations, not live prices or a forecast.
Why it appears
Data qualityVerified comparison
Two daily snapshots passed the matching-side, quote, spread, movement, and source-backed activity checks.
The selected side's midpoint moved -25.5 percentage points since the previous daily snapshot.
Matching market side in both snapshots
Best bid and ask available in both snapshots
Positive reported traded notional from the current market Book
Bid-ask spread no greater than 10¢ in both snapshots
Largest verified moves · sports
Samuele Pieri vs. Federico Agustin Gomez
1 contract shown in this section
Samuele Pieri vs Federico Agustin Gomez
Source end time Aug 12, 2026, 8:00 AM UTC
Selected side Samuele Pieri3.5¢-24.5 pp
Complete quote
Best bid 3¢
Best ask 4¢
BBO midpoint 3.5¢
1¢ spread
$845K reported traded notional
Recent daily snapshots
Samuele Pieri midpoint evidence
3 verified observations
First observed
41¢
Latest observed
3.5¢
Jul 28, 2026–Jul 30, 2026 UTC-37.5 pp net change
Daily midpoint observations, not live prices or a forecast.
Why it appears
Data qualityVerified comparison
Two daily snapshots passed the matching-side, quote, spread, movement, and source-backed activity checks.
The selected side's midpoint moved -24.5 percentage points since the previous daily snapshot.
Matching market side in both snapshots
Best bid and ask available in both snapshots
Positive reported traded notional from the current market Book
Bid-ask spread no greater than 10¢ in both snapshots
Largest verified moves · sports
ENCE vs. BOJONG
1 contract shown in this section
ENCE vs BOJONG
Source end time Aug 13, 2026, 10:00 AM UTC
Selected side ENCE95¢+23.5 pp
Complete quote
Best bid 94¢
Best ask 96¢
BBO midpoint 95¢
2¢ spread
$224K reported traded notional
Recent daily snapshots
ENCE midpoint evidence
4 verified observations
First observed
71¢
Latest observed
95¢
Jul 27, 2026–Jul 30, 2026 UTC+24 pp net change
Daily midpoint observations, not live prices or a forecast.
Why it appears
Data qualityVerified comparison
Two daily snapshots passed the matching-side, quote, spread, movement, and source-backed activity checks.
The selected side's midpoint moved +23.5 percentage points since the previous daily snapshot.
Matching market side in both snapshots
Best bid and ask available in both snapshots
Positive reported traded notional from the current market Book
Bid-ask spread no greater than 10¢ in both snapshots
Largest verified moves · sports
Carles Hernandez vs. Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento
1 contract shown in this section
Carles Hernandez vs Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento
Source end time Aug 13, 2026, 8:00 AM UTC
Selected side Carles Hernandez95¢+19.5 pp
Complete quote
Best bid 93¢
Best ask 97¢
BBO midpoint 95¢
4¢ spread
$1.8M reported traded notional
Recent daily snapshots
Carles Hernandez midpoint evidence
2 verified observations
First observed
75.5¢
Latest observed
95¢
Jul 29, 2026–Jul 30, 2026 UTC+19.5 pp net change
Daily midpoint observations, not live prices or a forecast.
Why it appears
Data qualityVerified comparison
Two daily snapshots passed the matching-side, quote, spread, movement, and source-backed activity checks.
The selected side's midpoint moved +19.5 percentage points since the previous daily snapshot.
Matching market side in both snapshots
Best bid and ask available in both snapshots
Positive reported traded notional from the current market Book
Bid-ask spread no greater than 10¢ in both snapshots
Largest verified moves · sports
EDward Gaming vs. Team WE
1 contract shown in this section
EDward Gaming vs Team WE
Source end time Aug 13, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Selected side EDward Gaming13.5¢-18 pp
Complete quote
Best bid 13¢
Best ask 14¢
BBO midpoint 13.5¢
1¢ spread
$578K reported traded notional
Recent daily snapshots
EDward Gaming midpoint evidence
4 verified observations
First observed
34.5¢
Latest observed
13.5¢
Jul 27, 2026–Jul 30, 2026 UTC-21 pp net change
Daily midpoint observations, not live prices or a forecast.
Why it appears
Data qualityVerified comparison
Two daily snapshots passed the matching-side, quote, spread, movement, and source-backed activity checks.
The selected side's midpoint moved -18 percentage points since the previous daily snapshot.
Matching market side in both snapshots
Best bid and ask available in both snapshots
Positive reported traded notional from the current market Book
Bid-ask spread no greater than 10¢ in both snapshots
Largest verified moves · sports
Zangar Nurlanuly vs. Yerassyl Yerdilda
1 contract shown in this section
Zangar Nurlanuly vs Yerassyl Yerdilda
Source end time Aug 13, 2026, 8:00 AM UTC
Selected side Zangar Nurlanuly70.5¢-18 pp
Complete quote
Best bid 68¢
Best ask 73¢
BBO midpoint 70.5¢
5¢ spread
$689K reported traded notional
Recent daily snapshots
Zangar Nurlanuly midpoint evidence
2 verified observations
First observed
88.5¢
Latest observed
70.5¢
Jul 29, 2026–Jul 30, 2026 UTC-18 pp net change
Daily midpoint observations, not live prices or a forecast.
Why it appears
Data qualityVerified comparison
Two daily snapshots passed the matching-side, quote, spread, movement, and source-backed activity checks.
The selected side's midpoint moved -18 percentage points since the previous daily snapshot.
Matching market side in both snapshots
Best bid and ask available in both snapshots
Positive reported traded notional from the current market Book
Bid-ask spread no greater than 10¢ in both snapshots
Largest verified moves · sports
American League Cy Young Award
1 contract shown in this section
Dylan Cease
Source end time Dec 11, 2026, 11:00 PM UTC
Selected side Yes24.35¢-16.7 pp
Complete quote
Best bid 24.3¢
Best ask 24.4¢
BBO midpoint 24.35¢
0.1¢ spread
$20.7 reported traded notional
Recent daily snapshots
Yes midpoint evidence
7 verified observations
First observed
43.35¢
Latest observed
24.35¢
Jul 24, 2026–Jul 30, 2026 UTC-19 pp net change
Daily midpoint observations, not live prices or a forecast.
Why it appears
Data qualityVerified comparison
Two daily snapshots passed the matching-side, quote, spread, movement, and source-backed activity checks.
The selected side's midpoint moved -16.7 percentage points since the previous daily snapshot.
Matching market side in both snapshots
Best bid and ask available in both snapshots
Positive reported traded notional from the current market Book
Bid-ask spread no greater than 10¢ in both snapshots
Largest verified moves · sports
Patrick Zahraj vs. Vincent Marysko
1 contract shown in this section
Patrick Zahraj vs Vincent Marysko
Source end time Aug 13, 2026, 8:00 AM UTC
Selected side Patrick Zahraj55.5¢-15.5 pp
Complete quote
Best bid 55¢
Best ask 56¢
BBO midpoint 55.5¢
1¢ spread
$288K reported traded notional
Recent daily snapshots
Patrick Zahraj midpoint evidence
2 verified observations
First observed
71¢
Latest observed
55.5¢
Jul 29, 2026–Jul 30, 2026 UTC-15.5 pp net change
Daily midpoint observations, not live prices or a forecast.
Why it appears
Data qualityVerified comparison
Two daily snapshots passed the matching-side, quote, spread, movement, and source-backed activity checks.
The selected side's midpoint moved -15.5 percentage points since the previous daily snapshot.
Matching market side in both snapshots
Best bid and ask available in both snapshots
Positive reported traded notional from the current market Book
Bid-ask spread no greater than 10¢ in both snapshots
Largest verified moves · sports
Theo Papamalamis vs. Noah Karma
1 contract shown in this section
Theo Papamalamis vs Noah Karma
Source end time Aug 13, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Selected side Theo Papamalamis91.5¢+15.5 pp
Complete quote
Best bid 88¢
Best ask 95¢
BBO midpoint 91.5¢
7¢ spread
$5.57K reported traded notional
Recent daily snapshots
Theo Papamalamis midpoint evidence
2 verified observations
First observed
76¢
Latest observed
91.5¢
Jul 29, 2026–Jul 30, 2026 UTC+15.5 pp net change
Daily midpoint observations, not live prices or a forecast.
Why it appears
Data qualityVerified comparison
Two daily snapshots passed the matching-side, quote, spread, movement, and source-backed activity checks.
The selected side's midpoint moved +15.5 percentage points since the previous daily snapshot.
Matching market side in both snapshots
Best bid and ask available in both snapshots
Positive reported traded notional from the current market Book
Bid-ask spread no greater than 10¢ in both snapshots
Largest verified moves · sports
PuckChamp vs. Zero Tenacity
1 contract shown in this section
PuckChamp vs Zero Tenacity
Source end time Aug 13, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Selected side PuckChamp8.5¢-14 pp
Complete quote
Best bid 8¢
Best ask 9¢
BBO midpoint 8.5¢
1¢ spread
$37K reported traded notional
Recent daily snapshots
PuckChamp midpoint evidence
4 verified observations
First observed
45¢
Latest observed
8.5¢
Jul 27, 2026–Jul 30, 2026 UTC-36.5 pp net change
Daily midpoint observations, not live prices or a forecast.
Why it appears
Data qualityVerified comparison
Two daily snapshots passed the matching-side, quote, spread, movement, and source-backed activity checks.
The selected side's midpoint moved -14 percentage points since the previous daily snapshot.
Matching market side in both snapshots
Best bid and ask available in both snapshots
Positive reported traded notional from the current market Book
Bid-ask spread no greater than 10¢ in both snapshots
Largest verified moves · sports
Roman Dolidze vs. Reinier de Ridder
1 contract shown in this section
Roman Dolidze vs Reinier de Ridder
Source end time Sep 5, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Selected side Roman Dolidze27¢-13 pp
Complete quote
Best bid 22¢
Best ask 32¢
BBO midpoint 27¢
10¢ spread
$4.12K reported traded notional
Recent daily snapshots
Roman Dolidze midpoint evidence
7 verified observations
First observed
33¢
Latest observed
27¢
Jul 24, 2026–Jul 30, 2026 UTC-6 pp net change
Daily midpoint observations, not live prices or a forecast.
Why it appears
Data qualityVerified comparison
Two daily snapshots passed the matching-side, quote, spread, movement, and source-backed activity checks.
The selected side's midpoint moved -13 percentage points since the previous daily snapshot.
Matching market side in both snapshots
Best bid and ask available in both snapshots
Positive reported traded notional from the current market Book
Bid-ask spread no greater than 10¢ in both snapshots
Largest verified moves · sports
Emma Ottavia Ghirardato vs. Manon Favier
1 contract shown in this section
Emma Ottavia Ghirardato vs Manon Favier
Source end time Aug 13, 2026, 8:00 AM UTC
Selected side Emma Ottavia Ghirardato95.5¢+13 pp
Complete quote
Best bid 95¢
Best ask 96¢
BBO midpoint 95.5¢
1¢ spread
$126K reported traded notional
Recent daily snapshots
Emma Ottavia Ghirardato midpoint evidence
2 verified observations
First observed
82.5¢
Latest observed
95.5¢
Jul 29, 2026–Jul 30, 2026 UTC+13 pp net change
Daily midpoint observations, not live prices or a forecast.
Why it appears
Data qualityVerified comparison
Two daily snapshots passed the matching-side, quote, spread, movement, and source-backed activity checks.
The selected side's midpoint moved +13 percentage points since the previous daily snapshot.
Matching market side in both snapshots
Best bid and ask available in both snapshots
Positive reported traded notional from the current market Book
Bid-ask spread no greater than 10¢ in both snapshots
Largest verified moves · sports
NBA MVP
1 contract shown in this section
Victor Wembanyama
Source end time May 31, 2027, 11:00 PM UTC
Selected side Yes46.5¢+12 pp
Complete quote
Best bid 46¢
Best ask 47¢
BBO midpoint 46.5¢
1¢ spread
$98.6 reported traded notional
Recent daily snapshots
Yes midpoint evidence
7 verified observations
First observed
24.5¢
Latest observed
46.5¢
Jul 24, 2026–Jul 30, 2026 UTC+22 pp net change
Daily midpoint observations, not live prices or a forecast.
Why it appears
Data qualityVerified comparison
Two daily snapshots passed the matching-side, quote, spread, movement, and source-backed activity checks.
The selected side's midpoint moved +12 percentage points since the previous daily snapshot.
Matching market side in both snapshots
Best bid and ask available in both snapshots
Positive reported traded notional from the current market Book
Bid-ask spread no greater than 10¢ in both snapshots
Largest verified moves · sports
NL East Division Winner
1 contract shown in this section
Atlanta Braves
Source end time Oct 11, 2027, 11:00 PM UTC
Selected side Yes89.5¢+12 pp
Complete quote
Best bid 85¢
Best ask 94¢
BBO midpoint 89.5¢
9¢ spread
$116 reported traded notional
Recent daily snapshots
Yes midpoint evidence
7 verified observations
First observed
69¢
Latest observed
89.5¢
Jul 24, 2026–Jul 30, 2026 UTC+20.5 pp net change
Daily midpoint observations, not live prices or a forecast.
Why it appears
Data qualityVerified comparison
Two daily snapshots passed the matching-side, quote, spread, movement, and source-backed activity checks.
The selected side's midpoint moved +12 percentage points since the previous daily snapshot.
Matching market side in both snapshots
Best bid and ask available in both snapshots
Positive reported traded notional from the current market Book
Bid-ask spread no greater than 10¢ in both snapshots