A selective view of verified market movement, quote quality, source-reported activity, and timing. Rankings describe observable market activity—not expected profit or outcome accuracy.
Prospective simulation
Paper Portfolio
Strategy version 2026-07-21.momentum-paper.v4
Enters US markets from the published Largest Verified Moves list, sized $1–$25 by Evidence Score at the live ask. Positions close at official settlement, at the seven-day exit, or between pulses via the exit sentinel; a market can re-qualify after its position completes.
No real money is traded
Paper cash$733.38
+
Open liquidation value$164.81
=
Simulated value$898.19
Initial paper balance
$1,000.00
Total paper gain/loss
−$101.81 (−10.18%)
Paper cash
$733.38
Open positions
17
Completed positions
151
Source evidence
Last evaluated
Browse by evidence condition
The largest absolute changes that cleared the daily comparison's stable-side, quote, spread, movement, and source-backed activity checks.
Largest verified moves · sports
NBA Eastern Conference Champion
1 contract shown in this section
Cleveland Cavaliers
Source end time Jun 12, 2027, 11:00 PM UTC
Selected side Yes18.5¢+11 pp
Complete quote
Best bid 18¢
Best ask 19¢
BBO midpoint 18.5¢
1¢ spread
$829 reported traded notional
Recent daily snapshots
Yes midpoint evidence
7 verified observations
First observed
7.5¢
Latest observed
18.5¢
Jul 24, 2026–Jul 30, 2026 UTC+11 pp net change
Daily midpoint observations, not live prices or a forecast.
Why it appears
Data qualityVerified comparison
Two daily snapshots passed the matching-side, quote, spread, movement, and source-backed activity checks.
The selected side's midpoint moved +11 percentage points since the previous daily snapshot.
Matching market side in both snapshots
Best bid and ask available in both snapshots
Positive reported traded notional from the current market Book
Bid-ask spread no greater than 10¢ in both snapshots
Largest verified moves · sports
Sebastian Dominko vs. Oliver Tarvet
1 contract shown in this section
Sebastian Dominko vs Oliver Tarvet
Source end time Aug 13, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Selected side Sebastian Dominko7.5¢-11 pp
Complete quote
Best bid 4¢
Best ask 11¢
BBO midpoint 7.5¢
7¢ spread
$113K reported traded notional
Recent daily snapshots
Sebastian Dominko midpoint evidence
2 verified observations
First observed
18.5¢
Latest observed
7.5¢
Jul 29, 2026–Jul 30, 2026 UTC-11 pp net change
Daily midpoint observations, not live prices or a forecast.
Why it appears
Data qualityVerified comparison
Two daily snapshots passed the matching-side, quote, spread, movement, and source-backed activity checks.
The selected side's midpoint moved -11 percentage points since the previous daily snapshot.
Matching market side in both snapshots
Best bid and ask available in both snapshots
Positive reported traded notional from the current market Book
Bid-ask spread no greater than 10¢ in both snapshots
Largest verified moves · sports
New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs
1 contract shown in this section
New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs
Source end time Aug 15, 2026, 11:15 PM UTC
Selected side New York Yankees49.75¢-10.8 pp
Complete quote
Best bid 49.5¢
Best ask 50¢
BBO midpoint 49.75¢
0.5¢ spread
$70.9K reported traded notional
Recent daily snapshots
New York Yankees midpoint evidence
2 verified observations
First observed
60.5¢
Latest observed
49.75¢
Jul 29, 2026–Jul 30, 2026 UTC-10.75 pp net change
Daily midpoint observations, not live prices or a forecast.
Why it appears
Data qualityVerified comparison
Two daily snapshots passed the matching-side, quote, spread, movement, and source-backed activity checks.
The selected side's midpoint moved -10.8 percentage points since the previous daily snapshot.
Matching market side in both snapshots
Best bid and ask available in both snapshots
Positive reported traded notional from the current market Book
Bid-ask spread no greater than 10¢ in both snapshots
Largest verified moves · sports
Southern Brave vs. Birmingham Phoenix
1 contract shown in this section
Southern Brave vs Birmingham Phoenix
Source end time Aug 13, 2026, 5:30 PM UTC
Selected side Southern Brave61¢+10.5 pp
Complete quote
Best bid 60¢
Best ask 62¢
BBO midpoint 61¢
2¢ spread
$23.7K reported traded notional
Recent daily snapshots
Southern Brave midpoint evidence
4 verified observations
First observed
49.5¢
Latest observed
61¢
Jul 27, 2026–Jul 30, 2026 UTC+11.5 pp net change
Daily midpoint observations, not live prices or a forecast.
Why it appears
Data qualityVerified comparison
Two daily snapshots passed the matching-side, quote, spread, movement, and source-backed activity checks.
The selected side's midpoint moved +10.5 percentage points since the previous daily snapshot.
Matching market side in both snapshots
Best bid and ask available in both snapshots
Positive reported traded notional from the current market Book
Bid-ask spread no greater than 10¢ in both snapshots
Largest verified moves · sports
Pro Football Offensive Player of the Year
1 contract shown in this section
Jahmyr Gibbs
Source end time Feb 25, 2027, 11:00 PM UTC
Selected side Yes2.5¢-10 pp
Complete quote
Best bid 2¢
Best ask 3¢
BBO midpoint 2.5¢
1¢ spread
$4.75K reported traded notional
Recent daily snapshots
Yes midpoint evidence
7 verified observations
First observed
12.5¢
Latest observed
2.5¢
Jul 24, 2026–Jul 30, 2026 UTC-10 pp net change
Daily midpoint observations, not live prices or a forecast.
Why it appears
Data qualityVerified comparison
Two daily snapshots passed the matching-side, quote, spread, movement, and source-backed activity checks.
The selected side's midpoint moved -10 percentage points since the previous daily snapshot.
Matching market side in both snapshots
Best bid and ask available in both snapshots
Positive reported traded notional from the current market Book
Bid-ask spread no greater than 10¢ in both snapshots
Largest verified moves · sports
Deep Cross Gaming vs. Ground Zero Gaming
2 contracts shown in this section
Deep Cross Gaming vs Ground Zero Gaming
Source end time Aug 13, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Selected side Deep Cross Gaming72.5¢+10 pp
Complete quote
Best bid 72¢
Best ask 73¢
BBO midpoint 72.5¢
1¢ spread
$133K reported traded notional
Recent daily snapshots
Deep Cross Gaming midpoint evidence
4 verified observations
First observed
63.5¢
Latest observed
72.5¢
Jul 27, 2026–Jul 30, 2026 UTC+9 pp net change
Daily midpoint observations, not live prices or a forecast.
Deep Cross Gaming wins game 2
Source end time Aug 13, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Selected side Yes67.5¢+8.5 pp
Complete quote
Best bid 67¢
Best ask 68¢
BBO midpoint 67.5¢
1¢ spread
$4.16K reported traded notional
Recent daily snapshots
Yes midpoint evidence
4 verified observations
First observed
66¢
Latest observed
67.5¢
Jul 27, 2026–Jul 30, 2026 UTC+1.5 pp net change
Daily midpoint observations, not live prices or a forecast.
Why it appears
Deep Cross Gaming vs Ground Zero Gaming
Data qualityVerified comparison
Two daily snapshots passed the matching-side, quote, spread, movement, and source-backed activity checks.
The selected side's midpoint moved +10 percentage points since the previous daily snapshot.
Matching market side in both snapshots
Best bid and ask available in both snapshots
Positive reported traded notional from the current market Book
Bid-ask spread no greater than 10¢ in both snapshots
Deep Cross Gaming wins game 2
Data qualityVerified comparison
Two daily snapshots passed the matching-side, quote, spread, movement, and source-backed activity checks.
The selected side's midpoint moved +8.5 percentage points since the previous daily snapshot.
Matching market side in both snapshots
Best bid and ask available in both snapshots
Positive reported traded notional from the current market Book
Bid-ask spread no greater than 10¢ in both snapshots
Largest verified moves · sports
avice Team vs. Daxak Team
1 contract shown in this section
avice Team vs Daxak Team
Source end time Aug 13, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Selected side avice Team66.5¢+10 pp
Complete quote
Best bid 66¢
Best ask 67¢
BBO midpoint 66.5¢
1¢ spread
$2.75K reported traded notional
Recent daily snapshots
avice Team midpoint evidence
4 verified observations
First observed
53.5¢
Latest observed
66.5¢
Jul 27, 2026–Jul 30, 2026 UTC+13 pp net change
Daily midpoint observations, not live prices or a forecast.
Why it appears
Data qualityVerified comparison
Two daily snapshots passed the matching-side, quote, spread, movement, and source-backed activity checks.
The selected side's midpoint moved +10 percentage points since the previous daily snapshot.
Matching market side in both snapshots
Best bid and ask available in both snapshots
Positive reported traded notional from the current market Book
Bid-ask spread no greater than 10¢ in both snapshots
Largest verified moves · sports
Frites Esports Club vs. Once Upon A Team
1 contract shown in this section
Frites Esports Club vs Once Upon A Team
Source end time Aug 13, 2026, 5:00 PM UTC
Selected side Frites Esports Club94.5¢+10 pp
Complete quote
Best bid 94¢
Best ask 95¢
BBO midpoint 94.5¢
1¢ spread
$701K reported traded notional
Recent daily snapshots
Frites Esports Club midpoint evidence
4 verified observations
First observed
67¢
Latest observed
94.5¢
Jul 27, 2026–Jul 30, 2026 UTC+27.5 pp net change
Daily midpoint observations, not live prices or a forecast.
Why it appears
Data qualityVerified comparison
Two daily snapshots passed the matching-side, quote, spread, movement, and source-backed activity checks.
The selected side's midpoint moved +10 percentage points since the previous daily snapshot.
Matching market side in both snapshots
Best bid and ask available in both snapshots
Positive reported traded notional from the current market Book
Bid-ask spread no greater than 10¢ in both snapshots
Largest verified moves · sports
AFC South Division Winner
1 contract shown in this section
Houston
Source end time Jan 24, 2027, 11:00 PM UTC
Selected side Yes51.5¢+10 pp
Complete quote
Best bid 51¢
Best ask 52¢
BBO midpoint 51.5¢
1¢ spread
$3K reported traded notional
Recent daily snapshots
Yes midpoint evidence
7 verified observations
First observed
41.5¢
Latest observed
51.5¢
Jul 24, 2026–Jul 30, 2026 UTC+10 pp net change
Daily midpoint observations, not live prices or a forecast.
Why it appears
Data qualityVerified comparison
Two daily snapshots passed the matching-side, quote, spread, movement, and source-backed activity checks.
The selected side's midpoint moved +10 percentage points since the previous daily snapshot.
Matching market side in both snapshots
Best bid and ask available in both snapshots
Positive reported traded notional from the current market Book
Bid-ask spread no greater than 10¢ in both snapshots
Largest verified moves · sports
Connecticut vs. Chicago
1 contract shown in this section
Over 171.5 total points
Source end time Aug 14, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Selected side Over62¢+9.5 pp
Complete quote
Best bid 57¢
Best ask 67¢
BBO midpoint 62¢
10¢ spread
$3.8K reported traded notional
Recent daily snapshots
Over midpoint evidence
2 verified observations
First observed
52.5¢
Latest observed
62¢
Jul 29, 2026–Jul 30, 2026 UTC+9.5 pp net change
Daily midpoint observations, not live prices or a forecast.
Why it appears
Data qualityVerified comparison
Two daily snapshots passed the matching-side, quote, spread, movement, and source-backed activity checks.
The selected side's midpoint moved +9.5 percentage points since the previous daily snapshot.
Matching market side in both snapshots
Best bid and ask available in both snapshots
Positive reported traded notional from the current market Book
Bid-ask spread no greater than 10¢ in both snapshots
Largest verified moves · sports
Yureneva Svitlana vs. Kurtenko Alina
1 contract shown in this section
Yureneva Svitlana vs Kurtenko Alina
Source end time Aug 1, 2026, 11:30 AM UTC
Selected side Yureneva Svitlana38.5¢+9 pp
Complete quote
Best bid 38¢
Best ask 39¢
BBO midpoint 38.5¢
1¢ spread
$16.7K reported traded notional
Recent daily snapshots
Yureneva Svitlana midpoint evidence
2 verified observations
First observed
29.5¢
Latest observed
38.5¢
Jul 29, 2026–Jul 30, 2026 UTC+9 pp net change
Daily midpoint observations, not live prices or a forecast.
Why it appears
Data qualityVerified comparison
Two daily snapshots passed the matching-side, quote, spread, movement, and source-backed activity checks.
The selected side's midpoint moved +9 percentage points since the previous daily snapshot.
Matching market side in both snapshots
Best bid and ask available in both snapshots
Positive reported traded notional from the current market Book
Bid-ask spread no greater than 10¢ in both snapshots
Largest verified moves · sports
Pro Football Comeback Player of the Year
1 contract shown in this section
Patrick Mahomes
Source end time Feb 25, 2027, 11:00 PM UTC
Selected side Yes31.5¢-8.5 pp
Complete quote
Best bid 30¢
Best ask 33¢
BBO midpoint 31.5¢
3¢ spread
$0.1 reported traded notional
Recent daily snapshots
Yes midpoint evidence
7 verified observations
First observed
41.5¢
Latest observed
31.5¢
Jul 24, 2026–Jul 30, 2026 UTC-10 pp net change
Daily midpoint observations, not live prices or a forecast.
Why it appears
Data qualityVerified comparison
Two daily snapshots passed the matching-side, quote, spread, movement, and source-backed activity checks.
The selected side's midpoint moved -8.5 percentage points since the previous daily snapshot.
Matching market side in both snapshots
Best bid and ask available in both snapshots
Positive reported traded notional from the current market Book
Bid-ask spread no greater than 10¢ in both snapshots
Largest verified moves · sports
VfB eSports vs. Kaufland Hangry Knights
1 contract shown in this section
VfB eSports wins game 2
Source end time Aug 13, 2026, 5:00 PM UTC
Selected side Yes21.5¢-8.5 pp
Complete quote
Best bid 21¢
Best ask 22¢
BBO midpoint 21.5¢
1¢ spread
$306 reported traded notional
Recent daily snapshots
Yes midpoint evidence
4 verified observations
First observed
30¢
Latest observed
21.5¢
Jul 27, 2026–Jul 30, 2026 UTC-8.5 pp net change
Daily midpoint observations, not live prices or a forecast.
Why it appears
Data qualityVerified comparison
Two daily snapshots passed the matching-side, quote, spread, movement, and source-backed activity checks.
The selected side's midpoint moved -8.5 percentage points since the previous daily snapshot.
Matching market side in both snapshots
Best bid and ask available in both snapshots
Positive reported traded notional from the current market Book
Bid-ask spread no greater than 10¢ in both snapshots