A selective view of verified market movement, quote quality, source-reported activity, and timing. Rankings describe observable market activity—not expected profit or outcome accuracy.
Prospective simulation
Paper Portfolio
Strategy version 2026-07-21.momentum-paper.v4
Enters US markets from the published Largest Verified Moves list, sized $1–$25 by Evidence Score at the live ask. Positions close at official settlement, at the seven-day exit, or between pulses via the exit sentinel; a market can re-qualify after its position completes.
No real money is traded
Paper cash$733.38
+
Open liquidation value$164.81
=
Simulated value$898.19
Initial paper balance
$1,000.00
Total paper gain/loss
−$101.81 (−10.18%)
Paper cash
$733.38
Open positions
17
Completed positions
151
Source evidence
Last evaluated
Browse by evidence condition
The largest absolute changes that cleared the daily comparison's stable-side, quote, spread, movement, and source-backed activity checks.
Largest verified moves · sports
PuckChamp vs. Zero Tenacity
1 contract shown in this section
PuckChamp vs Zero Tenacity
Source end time Aug 13, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Selected side PuckChamp8.5¢-14 pp
Complete quote
Best bid 8¢
Best ask 9¢
BBO midpoint 8.5¢
1¢ spread
$37K reported traded notional
Recent daily snapshots
PuckChamp midpoint evidence
4 verified observations
First observed
45¢
Latest observed
8.5¢
Jul 27, 2026–Jul 30, 2026 UTC-36.5 pp net change
Daily midpoint observations, not live prices or a forecast.
Why it appears
Data qualityVerified comparison
Two daily snapshots passed the matching-side, quote, spread, movement, and source-backed activity checks.
The selected side's midpoint moved -14 percentage points since the previous daily snapshot.
Matching market side in both snapshots
Best bid and ask available in both snapshots
Positive reported traded notional from the current market Book
Bid-ask spread no greater than 10¢ in both snapshots
Largest verified moves · sports
Roman Dolidze vs. Reinier de Ridder
1 contract shown in this section
Roman Dolidze vs Reinier de Ridder
Source end time Sep 5, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Selected side Roman Dolidze27¢-13 pp
Complete quote
Best bid 22¢
Best ask 32¢
BBO midpoint 27¢
10¢ spread
$4.12K reported traded notional
Recent daily snapshots
Roman Dolidze midpoint evidence
7 verified observations
First observed
33¢
Latest observed
27¢
Jul 24, 2026–Jul 30, 2026 UTC-6 pp net change
Daily midpoint observations, not live prices or a forecast.
Why it appears
Data qualityVerified comparison
Two daily snapshots passed the matching-side, quote, spread, movement, and source-backed activity checks.
The selected side's midpoint moved -13 percentage points since the previous daily snapshot.
Matching market side in both snapshots
Best bid and ask available in both snapshots
Positive reported traded notional from the current market Book
Bid-ask spread no greater than 10¢ in both snapshots
Largest verified moves · sports
Emma Ottavia Ghirardato vs. Manon Favier
1 contract shown in this section
Emma Ottavia Ghirardato vs Manon Favier
Source end time Aug 13, 2026, 8:00 AM UTC
Selected side Emma Ottavia Ghirardato95.5¢+13 pp
Complete quote
Best bid 95¢
Best ask 96¢
BBO midpoint 95.5¢
1¢ spread
$126K reported traded notional
Recent daily snapshots
Emma Ottavia Ghirardato midpoint evidence
2 verified observations
First observed
82.5¢
Latest observed
95.5¢
Jul 29, 2026–Jul 30, 2026 UTC+13 pp net change
Daily midpoint observations, not live prices or a forecast.
Why it appears
Data qualityVerified comparison
Two daily snapshots passed the matching-side, quote, spread, movement, and source-backed activity checks.
The selected side's midpoint moved +13 percentage points since the previous daily snapshot.
Matching market side in both snapshots
Best bid and ask available in both snapshots
Positive reported traded notional from the current market Book
Bid-ask spread no greater than 10¢ in both snapshots
Largest verified moves · climate
Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 30?
2 contracts shown in this section
73 to 74
Source end time Jul 31, 2026, 8:00 AM UTC
Selected side Yes14¢-12.5 pp
Complete quote
Best bid 12¢
Best ask 16¢
BBO midpoint 14¢
4¢ spread
$24K reported traded notional
Recent daily snapshots
Yes midpoint evidence
2 verified observations
First observed
26.5¢
Latest observed
14¢
Jul 29, 2026–Jul 30, 2026 UTC-12.5 pp net change
Daily midpoint observations, not live prices or a forecast.
71 to 72
Source end time Jul 31, 2026, 8:00 AM UTC
Selected side Yes49¢+9.5 pp
Complete quote
Best bid 48¢
Best ask 50¢
BBO midpoint 49¢
2¢ spread
$165K reported traded notional
Recent daily snapshots
Yes midpoint evidence
2 verified observations
First observed
39.5¢
Latest observed
49¢
Jul 29, 2026–Jul 30, 2026 UTC+9.5 pp net change
Daily midpoint observations, not live prices or a forecast.
Why it appears
73 to 74
Data qualityVerified comparison
Two daily snapshots passed the matching-side, quote, spread, movement, and source-backed activity checks.
The selected side's midpoint moved -12.5 percentage points since the previous daily snapshot.
Matching market side in both snapshots
Best bid and ask available in both snapshots
Positive reported traded notional from the current market Book
Bid-ask spread no greater than 10¢ in both snapshots
71 to 72
Data qualityVerified comparison
Two daily snapshots passed the matching-side, quote, spread, movement, and source-backed activity checks.
The selected side's midpoint moved +9.5 percentage points since the previous daily snapshot.
Matching market side in both snapshots
Best bid and ask available in both snapshots
Positive reported traded notional from the current market Book
Bid-ask spread no greater than 10¢ in both snapshots
Largest verified moves · sports
NBA MVP
1 contract shown in this section
Victor Wembanyama
Source end time May 31, 2027, 11:00 PM UTC
Selected side Yes46.5¢+12 pp
Complete quote
Best bid 46¢
Best ask 47¢
BBO midpoint 46.5¢
1¢ spread
$98.6 reported traded notional
Recent daily snapshots
Yes midpoint evidence
7 verified observations
First observed
24.5¢
Latest observed
46.5¢
Jul 24, 2026–Jul 30, 2026 UTC+22 pp net change
Daily midpoint observations, not live prices or a forecast.
Why it appears
Data qualityVerified comparison
Two daily snapshots passed the matching-side, quote, spread, movement, and source-backed activity checks.
The selected side's midpoint moved +12 percentage points since the previous daily snapshot.
Matching market side in both snapshots
Best bid and ask available in both snapshots
Positive reported traded notional from the current market Book
Bid-ask spread no greater than 10¢ in both snapshots
Largest verified moves · politics
Who Will Be Announced Out of Trump Admin in 2026?
1 contract shown in this section
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Source end time Jan 14, 2027, 11:00 PM UTC
Selected side Yes35¢-12 pp
Complete quote
Best bid 31¢
Best ask 39¢
BBO midpoint 35¢
8¢ spread
$10.1K reported traded notional
Recent daily snapshots
Yes midpoint evidence
6 verified observations
First observed
29¢
Latest observed
35¢
Jul 24, 2026–Jul 30, 2026 UTC+6 pp net change
Daily midpoint observations, not live prices or a forecast.
Why it appears
Data qualityVerified comparison
Two daily snapshots passed the matching-side, quote, spread, movement, and source-backed activity checks.
The selected side's midpoint moved -12 percentage points since the previous daily snapshot.
Matching market side in both snapshots
Best bid and ask available in both snapshots
Positive reported traded notional from the current market Book
Bid-ask spread no greater than 10¢ in both snapshots
Largest verified moves · sports
NL East Division Winner
1 contract shown in this section
Atlanta Braves
Source end time Oct 11, 2027, 11:00 PM UTC
Selected side Yes89.5¢+12 pp
Complete quote
Best bid 85¢
Best ask 94¢
BBO midpoint 89.5¢
9¢ spread
$116 reported traded notional
Recent daily snapshots
Yes midpoint evidence
7 verified observations
First observed
69¢
Latest observed
89.5¢
Jul 24, 2026–Jul 30, 2026 UTC+20.5 pp net change
Daily midpoint observations, not live prices or a forecast.
Why it appears
Data qualityVerified comparison
Two daily snapshots passed the matching-side, quote, spread, movement, and source-backed activity checks.
The selected side's midpoint moved +12 percentage points since the previous daily snapshot.
Matching market side in both snapshots
Best bid and ask available in both snapshots
Positive reported traded notional from the current market Book
Bid-ask spread no greater than 10¢ in both snapshots
Largest verified moves · politics
Michigan Senate Democratic Primary Winner
1 contract shown in this section
Abdul El-Sayed
Source end time Aug 18, 2026, 11:00 PM UTC
Selected side Yes92¢+11.5 pp
Complete quote
Best bid 87¢
Best ask 97¢
BBO midpoint 92¢
10¢ spread
$5.74K reported traded notional
Recent daily snapshots
Yes midpoint evidence
7 verified observations
First observed
65¢
Latest observed
92¢
Jul 24, 2026–Jul 30, 2026 UTC+27 pp net change
Daily midpoint observations, not live prices or a forecast.
Why it appears
Data qualityVerified comparison
Two daily snapshots passed the matching-side, quote, spread, movement, and source-backed activity checks.
The selected side's midpoint moved +11.5 percentage points since the previous daily snapshot.
Matching market side in both snapshots
Best bid and ask available in both snapshots
Positive reported traded notional from the current market Book
Bid-ask spread no greater than 10¢ in both snapshots
Largest verified moves · sports
NBA Eastern Conference Champion
1 contract shown in this section
Cleveland Cavaliers
Source end time Jun 12, 2027, 11:00 PM UTC
Selected side Yes18.5¢+11 pp
Complete quote
Best bid 18¢
Best ask 19¢
BBO midpoint 18.5¢
1¢ spread
$829 reported traded notional
Recent daily snapshots
Yes midpoint evidence
7 verified observations
First observed
7.5¢
Latest observed
18.5¢
Jul 24, 2026–Jul 30, 2026 UTC+11 pp net change
Daily midpoint observations, not live prices or a forecast.
Why it appears
Data qualityVerified comparison
Two daily snapshots passed the matching-side, quote, spread, movement, and source-backed activity checks.
The selected side's midpoint moved +11 percentage points since the previous daily snapshot.
Matching market side in both snapshots
Best bid and ask available in both snapshots
Positive reported traded notional from the current market Book
Bid-ask spread no greater than 10¢ in both snapshots
Largest verified moves · climate
Highest temperature in Chicago on July 30?
1 contract shown in this section
87 to 88
Source end time Jul 31, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
Selected side Yes39.5¢+11 pp
Complete quote
Best bid 39¢
Best ask 40¢
BBO midpoint 39.5¢
1¢ spread
$22.4K reported traded notional
Recent daily snapshots
Yes midpoint evidence
2 verified observations
First observed
28.5¢
Latest observed
39.5¢
Jul 29, 2026–Jul 30, 2026 UTC+11 pp net change
Daily midpoint observations, not live prices or a forecast.
Why it appears
Data qualityVerified comparison
Two daily snapshots passed the matching-side, quote, spread, movement, and source-backed activity checks.
The selected side's midpoint moved +11 percentage points since the previous daily snapshot.
Matching market side in both snapshots
Best bid and ask available in both snapshots
Positive reported traded notional from the current market Book
Bid-ask spread no greater than 10¢ in both snapshots
Largest verified moves · sports
Sebastian Dominko vs. Oliver Tarvet
1 contract shown in this section
Sebastian Dominko vs Oliver Tarvet
Source end time Aug 13, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Selected side Sebastian Dominko7.5¢-11 pp
Complete quote
Best bid 4¢
Best ask 11¢
BBO midpoint 7.5¢
7¢ spread
$113K reported traded notional
Recent daily snapshots
Sebastian Dominko midpoint evidence
2 verified observations
First observed
18.5¢
Latest observed
7.5¢
Jul 29, 2026–Jul 30, 2026 UTC-11 pp net change
Daily midpoint observations, not live prices or a forecast.
Why it appears
Data qualityVerified comparison
Two daily snapshots passed the matching-side, quote, spread, movement, and source-backed activity checks.
The selected side's midpoint moved -11 percentage points since the previous daily snapshot.
Matching market side in both snapshots
Best bid and ask available in both snapshots
Positive reported traded notional from the current market Book
Bid-ask spread no greater than 10¢ in both snapshots
Largest verified moves · sports
New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs
1 contract shown in this section
New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs
Source end time Aug 15, 2026, 11:15 PM UTC
Selected side New York Yankees49.75¢-10.8 pp
Complete quote
Best bid 49.5¢
Best ask 50¢
BBO midpoint 49.75¢
0.5¢ spread
$70.9K reported traded notional
Recent daily snapshots
New York Yankees midpoint evidence
2 verified observations
First observed
60.5¢
Latest observed
49.75¢
Jul 29, 2026–Jul 30, 2026 UTC-10.75 pp net change
Daily midpoint observations, not live prices or a forecast.
Why it appears
Data qualityVerified comparison
Two daily snapshots passed the matching-side, quote, spread, movement, and source-backed activity checks.
The selected side's midpoint moved -10.8 percentage points since the previous daily snapshot.
Matching market side in both snapshots
Best bid and ask available in both snapshots
Positive reported traded notional from the current market Book
Bid-ask spread no greater than 10¢ in both snapshots
Largest verified moves · sports
Southern Brave vs. Birmingham Phoenix
1 contract shown in this section
Southern Brave vs Birmingham Phoenix
Source end time Aug 13, 2026, 5:30 PM UTC
Selected side Southern Brave61¢+10.5 pp
Complete quote
Best bid 60¢
Best ask 62¢
BBO midpoint 61¢
2¢ spread
$23.7K reported traded notional
Recent daily snapshots
Southern Brave midpoint evidence
4 verified observations
First observed
49.5¢
Latest observed
61¢
Jul 27, 2026–Jul 30, 2026 UTC+11.5 pp net change
Daily midpoint observations, not live prices or a forecast.
Why it appears
Data qualityVerified comparison
Two daily snapshots passed the matching-side, quote, spread, movement, and source-backed activity checks.
The selected side's midpoint moved +10.5 percentage points since the previous daily snapshot.
Matching market side in both snapshots
Best bid and ask available in both snapshots
Positive reported traded notional from the current market Book
Bid-ask spread no greater than 10¢ in both snapshots
Largest verified moves · sports
Pro Football Offensive Player of the Year
1 contract shown in this section
Jahmyr Gibbs
Source end time Feb 25, 2027, 11:00 PM UTC
Selected side Yes2.5¢-10 pp
Complete quote
Best bid 2¢
Best ask 3¢
BBO midpoint 2.5¢
1¢ spread
$4.75K reported traded notional
Recent daily snapshots
Yes midpoint evidence
7 verified observations
First observed
12.5¢
Latest observed
2.5¢
Jul 24, 2026–Jul 30, 2026 UTC-10 pp net change
Daily midpoint observations, not live prices or a forecast.
Why it appears
Data qualityVerified comparison
Two daily snapshots passed the matching-side, quote, spread, movement, and source-backed activity checks.
The selected side's midpoint moved -10 percentage points since the previous daily snapshot.
Matching market side in both snapshots
Best bid and ask available in both snapshots
Positive reported traded notional from the current market Book
Bid-ask spread no greater than 10¢ in both snapshots
Largest verified moves · culture
TIME Person of the Year 2026
1 contract shown in this section
Elon Musk
Source end time Jan 14, 2027, 11:00 PM UTC
Selected side Yes3.5¢-10 pp
Complete quote
Best bid 3¢
Best ask 4¢
BBO midpoint 3.5¢
1¢ spread
$357 reported traded notional
Recent daily snapshots
Yes midpoint evidence
7 verified observations
First observed
24¢
Latest observed
3.5¢
Jul 24, 2026–Jul 30, 2026 UTC-20.5 pp net change
Daily midpoint observations, not live prices or a forecast.
Why it appears
Data qualityVerified comparison
Two daily snapshots passed the matching-side, quote, spread, movement, and source-backed activity checks.
The selected side's midpoint moved -10 percentage points since the previous daily snapshot.
Matching market side in both snapshots
Best bid and ask available in both snapshots
Positive reported traded notional from the current market Book
Bid-ask spread no greater than 10¢ in both snapshots
Largest verified moves · sports
Deep Cross Gaming vs. Ground Zero Gaming
2 contracts shown in this section
Deep Cross Gaming vs Ground Zero Gaming
Source end time Aug 13, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Selected side Deep Cross Gaming72.5¢+10 pp
Complete quote
Best bid 72¢
Best ask 73¢
BBO midpoint 72.5¢
1¢ spread
$133K reported traded notional
Recent daily snapshots
Deep Cross Gaming midpoint evidence
4 verified observations
First observed
63.5¢
Latest observed
72.5¢
Jul 27, 2026–Jul 30, 2026 UTC+9 pp net change
Daily midpoint observations, not live prices or a forecast.
Deep Cross Gaming wins game 2
Source end time Aug 13, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Selected side Yes67.5¢+8.5 pp
Complete quote
Best bid 67¢
Best ask 68¢
BBO midpoint 67.5¢
1¢ spread
$4.16K reported traded notional
Recent daily snapshots
Yes midpoint evidence
4 verified observations
First observed
66¢
Latest observed
67.5¢
Jul 27, 2026–Jul 30, 2026 UTC+1.5 pp net change
Daily midpoint observations, not live prices or a forecast.
Why it appears
Deep Cross Gaming vs Ground Zero Gaming
Data qualityVerified comparison
Two daily snapshots passed the matching-side, quote, spread, movement, and source-backed activity checks.
The selected side's midpoint moved +10 percentage points since the previous daily snapshot.
Matching market side in both snapshots
Best bid and ask available in both snapshots
Positive reported traded notional from the current market Book
Bid-ask spread no greater than 10¢ in both snapshots
Deep Cross Gaming wins game 2
Data qualityVerified comparison
Two daily snapshots passed the matching-side, quote, spread, movement, and source-backed activity checks.
The selected side's midpoint moved +8.5 percentage points since the previous daily snapshot.
Matching market side in both snapshots
Best bid and ask available in both snapshots
Positive reported traded notional from the current market Book
Bid-ask spread no greater than 10¢ in both snapshots
Largest verified moves · sports
avice Team vs. Daxak Team
1 contract shown in this section
avice Team vs Daxak Team
Source end time Aug 13, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Selected side avice Team66.5¢+10 pp
Complete quote
Best bid 66¢
Best ask 67¢
BBO midpoint 66.5¢
1¢ spread
$2.75K reported traded notional
Recent daily snapshots
avice Team midpoint evidence
4 verified observations
First observed
53.5¢
Latest observed
66.5¢
Jul 27, 2026–Jul 30, 2026 UTC+13 pp net change
Daily midpoint observations, not live prices or a forecast.
Why it appears
Data qualityVerified comparison
Two daily snapshots passed the matching-side, quote, spread, movement, and source-backed activity checks.
The selected side's midpoint moved +10 percentage points since the previous daily snapshot.
Matching market side in both snapshots
Best bid and ask available in both snapshots
Positive reported traded notional from the current market Book
Bid-ask spread no greater than 10¢ in both snapshots
Largest verified moves · sports
Frites Esports Club vs. Once Upon A Team
1 contract shown in this section
Frites Esports Club vs Once Upon A Team
Source end time Aug 13, 2026, 5:00 PM UTC
Selected side Frites Esports Club94.5¢+10 pp
Complete quote
Best bid 94¢
Best ask 95¢
BBO midpoint 94.5¢
1¢ spread
$701K reported traded notional
Recent daily snapshots
Frites Esports Club midpoint evidence
4 verified observations
First observed
67¢
Latest observed
94.5¢
Jul 27, 2026–Jul 30, 2026 UTC+27.5 pp net change
Daily midpoint observations, not live prices or a forecast.
Why it appears
Data qualityVerified comparison
Two daily snapshots passed the matching-side, quote, spread, movement, and source-backed activity checks.
The selected side's midpoint moved +10 percentage points since the previous daily snapshot.
Matching market side in both snapshots
Best bid and ask available in both snapshots
Positive reported traded notional from the current market Book
Bid-ask spread no greater than 10¢ in both snapshots
Largest verified moves · sports
AFC South Division Winner
1 contract shown in this section
Houston
Source end time Jan 24, 2027, 11:00 PM UTC
Selected side Yes51.5¢+10 pp
Complete quote
Best bid 51¢
Best ask 52¢
BBO midpoint 51.5¢
1¢ spread
$3K reported traded notional
Recent daily snapshots
Yes midpoint evidence
7 verified observations
First observed
41.5¢
Latest observed
51.5¢
Jul 24, 2026–Jul 30, 2026 UTC+10 pp net change
Daily midpoint observations, not live prices or a forecast.
Why it appears
Data qualityVerified comparison
Two daily snapshots passed the matching-side, quote, spread, movement, and source-backed activity checks.
The selected side's midpoint moved +10 percentage points since the previous daily snapshot.
Matching market side in both snapshots
Best bid and ask available in both snapshots
Positive reported traded notional from the current market Book
Bid-ask spread no greater than 10¢ in both snapshots
Largest verified moves · sports
Connecticut vs. Chicago
1 contract shown in this section
Over 171.5 total points
Source end time Aug 14, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Selected side Over62¢+9.5 pp
Complete quote
Best bid 57¢
Best ask 67¢
BBO midpoint 62¢
10¢ spread
$3.8K reported traded notional
Recent daily snapshots
Over midpoint evidence
2 verified observations
First observed
52.5¢
Latest observed
62¢
Jul 29, 2026–Jul 30, 2026 UTC+9.5 pp net change
Daily midpoint observations, not live prices or a forecast.
Why it appears
Data qualityVerified comparison
Two daily snapshots passed the matching-side, quote, spread, movement, and source-backed activity checks.
The selected side's midpoint moved +9.5 percentage points since the previous daily snapshot.
Matching market side in both snapshots
Best bid and ask available in both snapshots
Positive reported traded notional from the current market Book
Bid-ask spread no greater than 10¢ in both snapshots